Saturday was not a good day for Howie Roseman.
On their way down to the league-mandated 53-man roster, Roseman let go of Sidney Jones (2nd-round pick), Rasul Douglas (3rd-round pick), Shareef Miller (4th-round pick).
Jones, Douglas and Miller never became starting players for the Eagles despite all three playing positions of need, and all three having high-level draft capital invested in them.
Despite the misses, Roseman insisted he remained confidence in the team's recent track record.
"You see it across the league. It's hard to hit on all of your draft picks," Roseman said. "There's no doubt about it. But I think when we look at our track record, we have a pretty good track record of bringing in good players to Philadelphia and they come in all sizes and shapes and forms and by the same token we are not going to be right every time but we have to be right a lot more than we're wrong."
What do the cuts do to Roseman's overall record in the draft?
Here is an updated look at Roseman's hit/miss record as general manager of the Eagles.
** Note: 2020 NFL Draft was not included since they haven't played a game yet **
1st Round: Andre Dillard (OT), Derek Barnett (DE), Carson Wentz (QB), Marcus Smith (DE), Lane Johnson (OT), Fletcher Cox (DT), Danny Watkins (OG), Brandon Graham (DE)
Hits: Wentz, Johnson, Cox, Graham
Misses: Smith, Watkins, Dillard, Barnett
Analysis: The expectation in the first round is clear — find a Pro-Bowl level talent that is a consistent starter.
A year ago, it looked like Roseman was doing an excellent job of just that. I had Roseman down with five hits in his eight picks, with only two misses. Now, however, Barnett — who has struggled to stay healthy and perform at a high level — is looking like a miss. It is still early with Dillard, but the bottom line is that Roseman will now go two years without Dillard being a full-time starter. That isn't great from a first-round pick.
A lot of the hits Roseman has had came prior to him taking back over as general manager in 2016. Really only Wentz, who was the No. 2 overall pick, has been an impact player in four years of first-round picks. Overall, his hit rate is at 50%. Not great.
For the Eagles to continue to contend in a world where Wentz has a franchise-quarterback contract, they have to start finding talent in the first round that contributes right away.
2nd Round: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (WR), Miles Sanders (RB), Dallas Goedert (TE), Sidney Jones (CB), Jordan Matthews (WR), Zach Ertz (TE), Mychal Kendricks (LB), Vinny Curry (DE), Jaiquawn Jarrett (S), Nate Allen (S)
Hits: Sanders, Goedert, Matthews, Ertz, Kendricks, Curry, Allen
Misses: Jones, Jarrett, Arcega-Whiteside
Analysis: Roseman has had some hits in the second round. Ertz is on a Hall-of-Fame track in his career. Goedert looks like an excellent pick, even if his snaps are limited because of Ertz. Kendricks and Curry helped win the team a Super Bowl and Matthews was extremely productive during his time in Eagles' green. Sanders was arguably the NFL Rookie of the Year last season on offense and is already an elite-level player at running back.
The issue is misses have been bad. Jarrett played in just 13 games with the Eagles and Jones never made an impact outside of a few plays.
Arcega-Whiteside will go a long way in determining just how bad the 2019 Draft was. He was a disaster last season, but had a strong camp and should still be given time to prove whether he can play or not. But as of now, that pick is looking closer to a miss than a hit.
Still, even with Jones as a miss, hitting on seven of 10 second-round picks in an extremely high batting average.
3rd Round: Rasul Douglas (CB), Isaac Seumalo (OG), Josh Huff (WR), Bennie Logan (DT), Nick Foles (QB), Curtis Marsh (CB), Daniel Te'o-Neshiem (DE)
Hits: Seumalo, Logan, Foles,
Misses: Huff, Marsh, Te'o-Neshiem, Douglas
Analysis: The third round is where Roseman has run into some trouble. There is no denying finding talent is harder, and the expectations are lower, the deeper the draft gets. The third-round, however, is still a round where the team should be able to find starters.
So far, Roseman has found just two players that started consistently for the Eagles during his time in Philadelphia — Bennie Logan and Isaac Seumalo. Foles is obviously a complicated player to judge, but if you wanted, you could say Roseman found his Super Bowl winning quarterback in the third round.
Douglas is moved from a hit as a solid backup to a miss now that he was released. You can debate if the Eagles got enough value of of Douglas, but the bottom line is if Roseman was given the chance to make the pick again, he would likely go with another player.
Overall, a hit rate of 42% in the third round is not terrible, but again, not good enough.
4th Round: Shareef Miller (DE), Avonte Maddox (CB), Josh Sweat (DE), Mack Hollins (WR), Jaylen Watkins (DB), Matt Barkley (QB), Brandon Boykin (CB), Casey Matthews (LB), Alex Henery (K), Trevard Lindley (DB), Keenan Clayton (LB), Mike Kafka (QB), Clay Harbor (TE), Donnel Pumphrey (RB)
Hits: Maddox, Watkins, Boykin, Matthews, Harbor, Sweat
Misses: Hollins, Barkley, Henery, Lindley, Clayton, Kafka, Miller
Analysis: The fourth-round has been a busy one for Roseman, and while it has not been stellar, it hasn't been a disaster either.
Roseman found quality players in Watkins, Boykins and Harbor. Matthews never played at an elite level, to say the least, but did appear in 64 games and started 16. That isn't terrible for a fourth-round pick. The worst misses at this point seem to be either Pumphrey or Miller, as neither ever played a snap for the team. The Eagles traded up for Barkley, although that has Kelly's fingerprints all over it. Pumphrey was a miss in a very deep running back class, which makes the miss extra painful.
Sweat had a strong season last year as a backup and the arrow is trending up on him.
As for Miller, he never played a snap for the team before being released, considering their desperate need for young defensive end help.
Overall, I have Roseman at 46% hit rate in the fourth-round.
5th Round: Clayton Thorson (QB), Shelton Gibson (WR), Nate Gerry (LB), Wendell Smallwood (RB), Halapoulivaati Vaitai (OT), Taylor Hart (DT), Ed Reynolds (DB), Earl Wolff (S), Dennis Kelly (OT), Dion Lewis (RB), Julian Vandervelde (OG), Ricky Sapp (DE), Riley Cooper (WR)
Hits: Smallwood, Vaitai, Kelly, Lewis, Vandervelde, Cooper
Misses: Pumphrey, Gibson, Gerry, Hart, Reynolds, Wolff, Sapp, Thorson
Analysis: How you judge a hit-or-miss in the fifth round is somewhat subjective.
The Eagles have not found any stud, diamond-in-the-rough players. They have found players that ended up contributing more than expected, however. Vaitai started in the Super Bowl. Cooper caught 18 touchdowns. Lewis is still a starting-level running back in the NFL, although not with the Eagles. Vandervelde appeared in 17 games. Again, not Pro Bowl players or starters — but contributors.
The misses, are obvious, with the biggest being Thorson, who didn't even make it out of training camp.
Roseman comes in with a 42% hit rate in the 5th-round.
6th Round: Matt Pryor (OG), Elijah Qualls (DT), Blake Countess (S), Marvin McNutt (WR), Brandon Washington (G), Jason Kelce (C), Brian Rolle (LB), Charles Scott (RB)
Hits: Kelce, Pryor
Misses: Qualls, Countess, McNutt, Washington, Rolle, Scott
Analysis: The sixth-round, as is likely the case with most general managers, has been a bloodbath for Roseman.
He has made eight picks and as of now has only found one starter — granted, that starter has been arguably his best overall pick in the draft when you consider the round and the level of play.
Pryor gets a bump up from unclear to a hit after providing some quality snaps last season when called upon to play. Although the 2020 NFL Draft isn't included, it is worth pointing out that Prince Tega Wanogho was released by the team during initial cuts despite their need for even slightly-below average tackle play.
Roseman comes in with a hit rate of 25% in the sixth-round.
7th Round: Jordan Mailata (OT), Jalen Mills (CB), Alex McCalister (DE), Joe Walker (LB), Beau Allen (DT), Joe Kruger (DE), Jordan Poyer (DB), David King (DE), Bryce Brown (RB), Greg Llloyd (LB), Stanley Havili (FB), Jamar Chaney (LB), Jeff Owens (DT), Kurt Coleman (S)
Hits: Mills, Walker, Allen, Poyer, Brown, Chaney, Coleman
Misses: McCalister, Kruger, King, Lloyd, Havili, Owens, Mailata
Analysis: Where Roseman has really shined is in the seventh round. Picks that are normally considered throwaways have turned into starters for the Eagles. Mills started on the Super Bowl team and has been their best cornerback since being drafted. Allen played a large role as well. Poyer did not play for the Eagles, but is clearly a talented player as he is still starting the NFL. Players like Brown, Chaney and Coleman all contributed for multiple seasons at a fairly high level, and definitely exceeded expectations.
To put in perspective how good Roseman has been in the final round, he has hit on as many picks (seven) as he has missed on, which is very impressive for the seventh-round.
Overall: Since 2010, excluding 2015, Roseman has had a huge hand in 74 draft picks for the Eagles. Overall, 35 have been hits and 39 have been misses, giving Roseman a hit-rate of 47% overall.
If you want to look at Roseman's track record since 2016, when there is no doubt he has had final say, he has missed on two-of-three first-round picks (Barnett, Dillard) and hit on 42% of his seven picks in the first two-rounds. He does not have, as of yet, one really bad miss on any of the six picks he has made in the first-three rounds — although Dillard is certainly starting to be in that conversation.
Things change quickly in the NFL. Last year, I wrote fans should feel confident in Roseman running the draft.
Now, with Dillard and Barnett looking like misses, that confidence shouldn't be as high as before.
Overall Grade: C
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
