Talent doesn't win games in the NFL.
The sooner we realize that, the sooner we can put Carson Wentz's Eagles career in context. Sunday's loss to New England was a predictable Wentz effort: Sometimes dazzling, sometimes maddening, and something we shouldn't just brush aside when focusing on a few exciting highlights or frustrating drops.
By now, we know the script: Wentz makes about three or four special plays per week. It often involves using his legs, buying time and lasering a pass into a tight window for a first down. Few quarterbacks in the league can replicate those moments, so they stick. Those plays are easy to remember, and too easy to pretend is the difference between winning and losing. But where Wentz continues to lack development and anything close to excellence is in the routine.
From opening drive jitters, to the three or four errant downfield passes per contest, to sailing the ball high when his mechanics are off, to failing to see the checkdown, to a seemingly lost mental clock inside the pocket, Wentz continues to make critical errors. We are now 50 starts into this quarterback's career and basic things are still problems that aren't going away.
Yes, it's clear that Wentz's offensive supporting cast isn't very good right now. The wide receiver group has been below average all season. Sunday was a perfect storm for disaster: An all-time great pass defense (coached by Bill Belichick), no Alshon Jeffery, no Jordan Howard, plus Lane Johnson exiting with an injury during the game. Expecting Wentz to light up the Patriots for 30-plus points was an unrealistic ask.
But here's what shouldn't be unrealistic for a quarterback that was, at the time of his deal, given the most guaranteed money in NFL history: Basic accuracy and two-minute drill acumen.
The Eagles defense was outstanding in a game it needed to be, affording Wentz and the offense a gift late in the fourth quarter -- just score a touchdown, tie the game at 17 (or go for two to win it) and hours of frustration would be swept away.
With 1:26 to go and three timeouts in tow, the Eagles were set up with a first and 10 from New England's 26-yard line. What followed is why talent is a word that should be saved for draft season, and not to determine which starting quarterbacks are difference makers for winning teams.
-1st and 10: Wentz, after staring down his target, fires high and incomplete to an open Zach Ertz. An accurate throw is a likely first down around the 15 yard line.
-2nd and 10: Wentz, after standing in a clean pocket for at least 3.5 seconds, fires high to Nelson Agholor down the line of scrimmage. Incomplete.
-3rd and 10: Wentz misses Ertz again on an out route, this time low and away. The play likely would have picked up the first down, or put the Eagles within a yard or two of converting on fourth.
-4th and 10: Wentz, facing a cover zero blitz by New England, stands up to the pressure and heaves a prayer to the back of the end zone for Nelson Agholor. The ball, likely due to wind and Wentz being hit as he threw, sailed back on the wide receiver, making a tough catch even tougher. Incomplete. The game effectively ended there.
If Sunday's performance was an outlier, it would be easy to dismiss. But it's the Wentz rule, not the exception. We're watching a quarterback, four years into his career, that doesn't do anything great. Most of his completions are within 0-10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Downfield passing is inaccurate. Passes sail. Everything feels hard for Wentz, even simple plays designed to get the offense in a rhythm.
Wentz, to borrow a baseball term, is like slugger that strikes out too often. The big problem: Unlike Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson, Wentz isn't actually hitting home runs. Explosive plays don't arrive. There's nothing great to counteract the bad.
The NFL has been filled with talented quarterbacks that never won a thing. It's also been filled with plenty of players that would be deemed less talented than Wentz (Tom Brady, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff) that are either more successful right now, or have been recently.
Wentz was drafted No. 2 overall because of talent, but it's not going to make him anything more than a good player in an Eagles uniform. When Wentz is ready to be precise on routine throws and reads, he won't need hope on fourth down. Consistency, not talent, separates good from great in a league that has such a slim margin for error.
Wentz's inability to master the routine is way more important than his ability to make a jaw-dropping play now and again, and that's really the conversation we should be having.
