What is going on with Zach Ertz?
That has been one of the top questions being asked so far during this disaster of an Eagles' season. The best tight end in franchise history is off to the worst start of his career, with just 145 yards receiving in his first five games. By this time last season Ertz already had 312 yards. By this time in 2018 he had already totaled 437 yards.
Things went from bad-to-worse this past Sunday when he caught only one pass in the team's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and ended up with as many yards (6) as targets.
The timing of Ertz's struggles are not ideal. Prior to the start of the season Ertz and the Eagles got into a public contract dispute after they couldn't come to an agreement on a new contract. The dispute lead Ertz to say that while he hopes to remain in Philadelphia, he is approaching this season as his last with the team.
It is safe to say that at least publicly, the contract dispute between Ertz and the Eagles is making a bad situation even worse. For the first time in Ertz's career there is real skepticism from fans about his future with the team, just how good he is still is and whether the team was correct not to pay him.
So what is going on with Ertz —and are those concerns fair?
Let's take a look.
To start, there is an argument to be made that Ertz is in some ways the victim of his own success right now.
As Eagles' skill positions players have come and gone since Doug Pederson arrived in 2016, Ertz has been the only consistently elite skill player the team has had. He is the only relevant skill player still on the roster from 2016 (non-quarterback). While seemingly each week the Eagles have had to play different receivers and running backs due to injury, Ertz has played in 70 of a possible 75 games since the start of 2016, including the playoffs.
He has also been incredibly consistent in those games.
Ertz has finished with at least 50 yards in 30 of his last 50 games. He hasn't had single-digit receiving yards in back-to-back games his entire career, and prior to this season, hasn't had single-digit receiving yards in any game since 2017. There have been only seven games since the start of 2016 where he has caught less than 50% of his targets.
Ertz's consistency makes his current struggles that much more jarring, and when combined with the contract dispute, add to the concern and spotlight surrounding the slow start.
The truth is the two main reasons for Ertz's slow start likely don't have anything to do with him.
This season, Ertz is averaging 2.8 yards of separation between him and his defender when the ball has come his way either for a completion or an incompletion, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. To put that in perspective, Kelce is averaging 3.0 yards of separation, and the 2.8 yards of separation is slightly more than Ertz averaged last season (2.7).
It is also pretty on par for what he has averaged in his career:
2020: 2.8 yards
2019: 2.7 yards
2018: 3.2 yards
2017: 2.9 yards
2016: 3.2 yards
Some seasons have been slightly higher than others, but overall, Ertz is getting the same level of separation he always has.
The issue is his quarterback has been arguably the least accurate passer in the NFL through the first five games. Carson Wentz is off to the worst start of his career, as just 59.7% of his passes have been "on target" according to Pro Football Reference. That is good for 27th in the NFL. He is also turning the ball over at an alarmingly high rate and making poor decisions from the pocket.
Head coach Doug Pederson hinted recently that part of the problem with Ertz's lack of production so far this season has simply been bad passes.
"When I looked at the tape today, there were a couple opportunities for him to make plays. Carson, just the ball sailed a little bit high. We had a red zone route dialed up. We had a false start in the red zone where Zach had a potential touchdown pass there. Carson and Zach, they have to continue to work," Pederson said. "I haven't seen the ball travel as high towards Zach than it is right now, and those are things as we continue to work through during the week, those two guys will be on the same page. So it's just a little bit of missed timing right now with those two. But I know it's something that they will work at and work on each week to get it corrected."
Pederson is right. Wentz has been sailing the ball this season, and that has been especially true when trying to hit Ertz over the middle, an area of the field Wentz's accuracy is especially bad. Ertz is getting just as much separation as he used to — the ball just isn't being delivered accurately.
When it has, Ertz has caught it. Ertz has had 21 catchable balls thrown his way this season. He has caught all but one of them.
What also can't be overlooked is the impact Dallas Goedert was having.
In the first two games, when both were fully healthy, Goedert had more targets (17) than Ertz did (14). Last year through the first two games when both were healthy, Ertz had 14 targets to just four for Goedert. The Eagles seemed to come into this season committed to getting the ball to Goedert more, even if it came at the expensive of Ertz. Goedert's ankle injury complicated that plan.
The timing of the subtle shift likely isn't coincidental, considering the contract dispute. The team can say whatever they want about being committed to Ertz, but on the field for the first two games, it looks like they are seriously considering moving on to Goedert, or at least very open to the idea of making him the top option at tight end. That would be the wrong decision by the team, but that is a topic for another day.
Other factors, of course, play a role as well. The Eagles have no serious threat on the outside at receiver — yet again — and the result is opposing defenses using their top cornerback on Ertz at times. Opposing defenses know they can key in on Ertz.
But that has been the case for years. The Eagles have never had a receiver on the roster better than Ertz, and that certainly hasn't been the case since the start of 2018.
The difference this year isn't defenses suddenly playing Ertz different. It isn't Ertz suddenly getting less separation than he used to. It isn't Ertz suddenly becoming a worse player or declining because of age.
The difference is Wentz is having a terrible start to the season, and that is impacting Ertz, like it is the entire offense. The contract dispute, and the Eagles making Goedert a bigger part of the offense, also isn't helping.
The decision not to extend Ertz and reward their best, most consistent player on offense was a curious one at the time, and in a full offseason of curious decisions, not paying Ertz is making a bad situation even worse.
The question is how do the Eagles fix it. Their offense has been at its best over the last few seasons when it is running through Ertz. To get back to that, the Eagles are going to need to hope Wentz starts to play at a higher level — and hope he can get back on the same page as the team's top receiver.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
