There could still be some movement, but for the most part, free agency and the big trades around the NFL are over.
The NFC East has been an especially active division. Three of the four teams made a major move at quarterback. One team has a new head coach. Two teams added playmaking receivers.
The NFL Draft will certainly impact things, but now that for the most part all the dust has settled, one thing is clear — the Eagles are the best bet to win the NFC East.
To be clear, being the best bet is different than being the favorite. At even money, or just having to pick a winner, the Eagles might not be my choice. I might pick them, I just wouldn't like it as much.
Looking at the odds, however, the Eagles are my favorite bet to win the division.
Here are the current odds, via PARX Casino:
Dallas: +105 ($100 wins $105)
Washington: +275 ($100 wins $275)
New York: +450 ($100 wins $450)
Eagles: +500 ($100 wins $500)
It is certainly fair to view Dallas as the favorite, and yes, Washington and New York were better than the Eagles last year. But do those really have that much of a better chance than the Eagles to win the division? Are they really that far ahead?
I don't think so.
Here is why I think the Eagles at 5-1 odds are the best bet to win the NFC East:
The Lines: While skill position players certainly matter, the bottom line is that the best teams are normally the ones with the best play at quarterback and along the lines. We'll get to quarterback in a second, but for now, let's look at the line play in the NFC East.
There is no question that the top responsibility of both the offensive and defensive line is to protect the quarterback and get after the quarterback. Running the ball and stopping the run matters, but just not as much.
Here is how the lines stacked up last season, per Pro Football Focus:
Pass Blocking:
Washington (3rd)
Eagles (16th)
Cowboys (26th)
Giants (32nd)
Pass Rushing:
Eagles (t-2nd)
Washington (5th)
Dallas (10th)
Giants (18th)
It is important to point out that the Eagles did this last season despite having major injury issues along both lines.
Javon Hargrave had his season ruined by an offseason injury that cost him training camp, much like Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham have had happen in past years. In both cases, Cox and Graham bounced back to have stronger seasons after they had a healthy offseason. With a healthy offseason, the Eagles should feel good about a front four of Barnett (or Sweat), Cox, Hargrave and Graham.
Only Washington can make the argument they have a better defensive line, and they would probably be right. Their line is stacked and Chase Young should be even better in his second season. It is worth mentioning, however, that last year the Eagles had more sacks (49-47) than Washington did.
On the other side of the ball, no offensive line in the NFL was impacted by injury more than the Eagles were last season. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles' offensive line made 13 line changes, the most in the NFL. They started the same offensive line in consecutive weeks only once.
Still, despite constantly having to change their line, the Eagles were in the top half of the league in pass blocking. It is a certainly a stretch to say that Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks will play 16 games. It isn't a stretch to say they will get more than the seven games combined they got from the duo.
Yes, Pro Football Focus is just one opinion, but the fact remains that when you look along the lines, the Eagles have a better argument than both Dallas and New York for having the best lines in the division. It really comes down to them and Washington.
In 2020, a major reason Washington won the division because they got the best line play overall on both sides of the ball. And if the 2021 season plays out with Washington and the Eagles getting the best line play, chances are the winner of the division will come down to who gets better quarterback play.
The Quarterback: Let's make one thing clear — if the Eagles get even just regular bad quarterback play last season, they are probably defending NFC East champions.
Instead, they had the 34th worst quarterback in the NFL. Only one quarterback in the entire NFL (that played enough snaps to qualify) had a worse passer rating than Carson Wentz did last season. Alex Smith (31st), Daniel Jones (30th) and Andy Dalton (25th) weren't that much better. They were still bad. They just weren't the complete train wreck that Wentz was, and as a result, the Eagles finished last in one of the worst divisions in the history of the NFL.
Looking to 2021, the quarterback play in the NFC East doesn't project to be that much better.
Jones has been a starter for two years. In those two years he is 8-18 with a passer rating of 84.1. His passer rating dropped from 87.7 to 80.4 from his rookie year to his second year, which is normally when most quarterbacks improve. Anything is possible, but there isn't much reason to be optimistic about Jones.
Ryan Fitzpatrick should be an upgrade over Smith, but in his 16-year career, he has started 16 games three times. He is a combined 22-26 in those three seasons. In fact, Fitzpatrick has started 10-plus games eight times in his career. He has had a winning record in one of them.
There is no question Dallas has the best situation at quarterback going into 2021. That being said, Eagles fans know all-to-well how a major injury can derail a quarterback. Dak Prescott's ankle injury isn't as serious as Wentz's torn ACL in 2017, but there is no question that the season-ending injuries Wentz suffered impacted his play. Perhaps Prescott will return in 2021 the same player he was prior to 2020. There is certainly reason to be concerned, however, that he won't.
That brings us to Jalen Hurts.
Unlike the other three projected starters, Hurts doesn't have a track record to go off of. He played four games last season. At times, like against New Orleans and Arizona, he looked amazing. At others, like the second half against Dallas and the season finale against Washington, he looked bad. What the Eagles will get from Hurts in 2021 is an unknown.
The unknown of Hurts, however, feels like a better bet than what we know Fitzpatrick and Jones are. We know they aren't that good. We have seen they aren't the answer. That can't be said about Hurts. There is a lot to like about Hurts and he showed last season his ceiling can be high.
A bet on the Eagles is really a bet on Hurts. Compared to the other quarterbacks in the division, however, it seems like a smart bet to make.
The Organizations:
Right now the Eagles are viewed as a dumpster fire by their fans.
Those fans, however, should take a closer look around the division.
While the Eagles 2020 season was painful to watch, that kind of embarrassing season was basically status-quo for the Giants and Washington.
The Giants have lost 10-plus games in six-of-the-last-seven seasons. Washington hasn't won 10-plus games in a season since 2012. Combined, Washington and New York have totaled exactly zero playoff wins since 2012. If there is one safe bet to make in the NFC East it is that Washington and New York will continue to be poorly run franchises.
Dallas has been better, but not by much. The Cowboys have had a winning record once since 2017, and three times in the last 10 seasons. They haven't advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 1995. They have been better run than Washington and the Giants, but they certainly haven't been anything close to a model of consistency.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have.
With Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman running the show, the Eagles have had a winning record in three-of-the-last-four seasons. They have lost double-digit games twice in the last 10 seasons. They haven't lost 10-plus games in back-to-back seasons since 1999. The last two times they finished a season with double-digit losses they went on to make the playoffs the following season.
No, the Eagles roster doesn't look amazing right now. Nick Sirianni is certainly a question mark, just like Doug Pederson was in 2016.
The bottom line though is that what truly matters when it comes to winning in the NFL is having strong ownership/front office, strong play along the lines and strong quarterback play. If you have that, the rest normally works itself out.
The Eagles might not be the best at each of those. They might not be No. 1 right now in any of them.
A look around the division though shows they are right there near the top of each, something no other team can say — making the Eagles a strong bet to win the division in 2021.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
