Football is back. Finally, thankfully, football is back. The NFL offseason was not a normal one, but it's alright because football is back! And with it comes fantasy football roster decisions. Week 1 is usually pretty easy. You likely had a sense of who your starters will be as you drafted your roster, but it might be a bit more difficult for Week 1 of this season.
A shortened NFL offseason meant less time for new head coaches to work with their teams in person, and rookies, free agent signings, and traded players had less time to learn a new playbook and adjust to a new team. At least for Week 1 this all needs to be taken into account. For this week steer clear of players who don't have clearly defined roles on new teams and those with new situations, whether a new quarterback or a new head coach.
There are of course players that are exceptions to that rule. The only time you'll be benching Christian McCaffrey (new head coach and new QB) is if they are hurt or on a bye week.
Those kinds of elite players will likely never appear in this column, and the players listed below shouldn't necessarily be started over the top tier guys. This is meant to help you make the tough decisions. The "starts" will mostly be streaming level or sleeper candidate players (with the occasional upper level player with a matchup too good to pass up), and the "sits" will be talented players who have serious bust potential given the context of a given weeks. One "sit" and one "start" at each position will get highlighted each week. There will also be a few extra starts you should consider starting listed as well, and a few extra players that you should be wary of. Not that you should definitely sit them, but they have tough matchups that need to be taken into account.
Enjoy!
Start
QB: Gardner Minshew (vs IND) - Last season Minshew surprised us all and showed that he is a capable NFL quarterback. Now with a year under his belt, and minus Leonard Fournette, he may have to carry this Jacksonville offense and Week 1 is as good a time as any to start. After Fournette's release, Ryquell Armstead's second bout with COVID-19, and Devine Ozigbo missing practice this week, Jacksonville's running back depth is very shallow. Rookie James Robinson and newcomer Chris Thompson will handle the bulk of the work, but the Jaguars will have to rely heavily on Minshew to guide them against a solid Indianapolis defense. Last season, though, Minshew played well against them, passing for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns (and one interception), leading Jacksonville to a 38-20 victory. Add in the fact that the once great Jaguars defense was torn down this offseason, and this game has the makings of a shootout in which Minshew will have to pass to keep up with the Colts. That potential for a high volume passing game, coupled with Minshew's running ability gives Minshew the potential for a big Week 1. QB streaming has proven to be a viable strategy in fantasy football, and Minshew looks like a prime Week 1 target.
Also consider: Philip Rivers (@ JAX), Jared Goff (vs DAL)
RB: Tarik Cohen (@ DET) - David Montgomery suffered a groin injury just a couple weeks ago and has been limited in practice this week. If he misses Week 1 Cohen is set to be the starting running back for Chicago. Even if Montgomery plays Cohen will serve his usual role as the primary pass catching back. It also wouldn't be surprising if Montgomery doesn't see a full workload, leaving some more touches available for Cohen. Detroit made a lot of changes to their defense but with the short offseason and no preseason games it's impossible to say how much improved it will be, if at all. The Bears' defense is not what it once was, and with Matt Stafford back for the Lions, this could be a decently high scoring game. Cohen has shown the potential for big games in the past and the situation for Week 1 could lead to another.
Also consider: Chris Thompson (vs IND)
WR: Robert Woods (vs DAL) - Woods has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league since he joined the Rams and that should continue this season. In Week 1 he faces a Dallas squad with a new coach but that will still put up plenty of points. The Rams will likely have to throw often to keep up, especially with a rookie running back in Cam Akers seeing his first NFL action and an injury to Darrell Henderson. The matchup with the Cowboys secondary could also be advantageous since that unit has multiple new faces and questions yet to be answered. Woods does compete for targets with Cooper Kupp, but the transition to a more 2-TE heavy system for the Rams last season resulted in a drop off in production for Kupp while Woods kept getting the job done. If the team continues to run that type of offense it will push Kupp out to the perimeter more often, where he is less effective. In a prime matchup, choosing between Woods and Kupp, I'll take Woods.
Also consider: Parris Campbell (@ JAX), Keenan Allen (@ CIN), DeSean Jackson (@ WAS)
TE: Hayden Hurst (vs SEA) - You might sense a theme here but Atlanta vs Seattle could be another shootout this week, and Hurst a chance to be a big part of that. While Hurst never flourished in Baltimore, he was a first round pick just two years ago so the pedigree and room for growth is still there. Despite transitioning to a new team during this crazy offseason, the former Ravens tight end is in a great situation as he joins last season's top passing offense. Matt Ryan has always relied heavily on his tight ends, and the targets that went to Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper have to go somewhere. His Week 1 matchup is against a Seattle defense that is a shell of its former self. The Seahawks should similarly be able to put up points on a less than stellar Falcons defense. All the ingredients are there for Hurst to have a smooth transition and a big week for his new team.
Also consider: Jonnu Smith (@ DEN), Tyler Higbee (vs DAL)
Sit
QB: Daniel Jones (vs PIT) - Many people believe Jones will have a breakout year with all of his top pass catchers, plus Saquan Barkley, finally healthy at the same time. That very well may happen, but the breakout might wait till Week 2 to start. In Week 1 Jones gets the vaunted Steelers defense, a tough matchup for almost any quarterback. Making this a tougher start to the season for Jones is the nature of this past offseason for him. On top of the shortened training camp and lack of preseason games that every team dealt with, Jones is heading into his second season with a new head coach in Joe Judge. Virtual meetings surely helped the Giants learn the new playbook, but Jones had less time on the field to work on actually implementing those plays and getting on the same page with the rest of his offense. At least for Week 1, let Jones ride the pine.
Be wary about: Kyler Murray (@ SF)
RB: Leonard Fournette (@ NO) - Fournette has it worse off than Jones. By kickoff Sunday, Fournette will have been a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for roughly a week. One week to learn an entirely new offense and get to know his new quarterback and offensive line. Fournette has always been a running back who relies on volume to produce for fantasy purposes; he might not see the necessary volume in Tampa Bay. He joins a backfield that already has the previously presumed starter in Ronald Jones, third round draft pick Ke'Shawn Vaughn, and veteran LeSean McCoy who was also a late offseason signing by the Bucs, but has still been with the team much longer than Fournette. While last season Fournette made up for inefficient running with plenty of volume in the passing game, Fournette might be the worst pass catcher of the four backs on the Bucs roster. Tampa Bay's website currently lists Fournette as the third string running back for Week 1. Fournette's role for Week 1 is completely unknown and he faces a formidable New Orleans defensive front, stay away from him for Week 1.
Be wary about: Nick Chubb (@ BAL), Kenyan Drake (@ SF)
WR: Julian Edelman (vs MIA) - Similarly to Woods, Edelman has long been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league. His ceiling hasn't always been high, especially in recent years, but his high floor has made a safe play. But now Tom Brady is gone and the significantly less accurate Cam Newton is the starter. Cam is definitely not Tom, and Edelman has had less time to build on an field connection with his new quarterback due to the pandemic. Edelman is a great receiver but having Newton as his quarterback worries me for Edelman's season long prospects. I'm especially worried about Edelman's Week 1 prospects. Miami used to be an easy matchup but they revamped their secondary this offseason and it's nothing to laugh at. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are the starting cornerbacks, forming one of the better duos in the league, and they also drafted Noah Igbinoghene in the first round this year. A potentially tough matchup and the first game with Cam Newton means leave Edelman on the bench for now.
Be wary about: DeVante Parker (@ NE), A.J. Green (vs LAC)
TE: Austin Hooper (@ BAL) - At a shallow position, Hooper has been one of the best tight ends in recent years. Cleveland clearly thought so as they gave him big money to leave a prolific Atlanta offense. The hype is there for a Baker Mayfield-Austin Hooper connection, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland. While the Browns offense struggled last season, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry already have experience with Mayfield, as does Hooper's fellow tight end, David Njoku, and Kareem Hunt who is an elite pass catching running back. It's also unclear if the Browns will even be a high volume passing offense, with new head coach Kevin Stefanski in town. Hunt and Nick Chubb form perhaps the best running back committee in the league so it wouldn't be a surprise for Cleveland to have a run heavy, or at least balanced, offense. Hooper of course also suffers from the pandemic offseason, leaving him less time to develop a rapport with Mayfield. Even with a normal offseason, Hooper might have been a bench this week, as his team travels to face the Baltimore Ravens who had one of the best defenses in the league last year. With Njoku still in town, and the other elite pass catchers, wait to start Hooper until we know what his role will be and he has a better matchup.
Be wary about: Rob Gronkowski (@ NO)
