Well, it happened. An NFL game has been cancelled due to COVID-19. Multiple Titans players and team personnel have tested positive for the virus this week, with new positive cases coming as recently as Friday. This is serious. The NFL has not yet said when the Titans-Steelers game will be played, but Week 7 seems most likely. Tennessee was scheduled to have their bye week that week, and Pittsburgh is scheduled to play Baltimore. Both the Steelers and the Ravens have their bye week the following week, so only one additional team would be impacted by the rescheduling.
Now how does this impact your fantasy team? The NFL originally hoped to play the game Monday or Tuesday. What if the game was scheduled for Tuesday and wasn't cancelled until after the Monday Night Football game had already started or sometime Tuesday? If you had left Derrick Henry or any other Titan or Steeler in your lineup, you would have had no options left.
Luckily the NFL was proactive and the positive test results came early enough in the week for the league to make the decision in plenty of time. But what if the positive cases began to trickle in over Friday, Saturday, and Sunday? That would result in a much more last minute decision by the NFL, and much greater chance of you being stuck with a player not playing a game in your lineup.
If you planned ahead you already discussed this situation with your league and have a plan in place. Perhaps your league allows you to substitute your highest scoring bench player at the position into your lineup after the fact, or you designated a specific replacement player for the relevant position ahead of time. If you haven't had this conversation with your league, do so sooner rather than later.
There is definitely something to be said for everyone just having to roll with the punches in fantasy. You either choose to take the risk and hope the game happens, or you play a potentially lesser player and hope the better player doesn't have a huge game on your bench in a game you thought might not happen.
The strategy of navigating games impacted by COVID-19 will certainly make things interesting for fantasy football. There is certainly no right or wrong way for your league to handle this, but it is definitely worth discussing. Let's just hope everyone is healthy and stays safe and that this is the last NFL game cancelled by COVID-19.
Start
QB: Joe Burrow (vs JAX) – Burrow heads into Week 4 coming off back to back weeks with 300+ yards and at least two touchdowns and he hasn't thrown an interception since Week 1. The Bengals have given him a slew of offensive weapons to work with, although he still operates behind a lackluster offensive line. He also has yet to complete less than 60% of his passes, and just eclipsed 70% last week. Does Burrow know he's a rookie? He even ran the ball 15 times the first two weeks and scored a touchdown on the ground in his debut. Next up for the first overall pick is a Jacksonville defense allowing quarterbacks to complete a league worst 80% of their passes. Jacksonville has allowed big games in back to back weeks to the likes of Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick. No the Jaguars aren't just weak against quarterbacks named Ryan, Philip Rivers passed for over 300 yards against them to start the season, so Joe has just as good a chance to produce. As Burrow looks for his first professional win, he is a good bet to help you win as well.
Also consider: Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs SEA) – Start your quarterbacks against the Seahawks, it's pretty simple. Fitzpatrick will be throwing plenty in this one, stream away. Aaron Rodgers (vs ATL) – He's probably re-entered "no duh" territory at this point but in case you hadn't noticed, Rodgers is still great. Plus, the Falcons defense is worse than the Seahawks, so start Rodgers, duh.
RB: Mike Davis (vs CAR) – It was fair to be cautious with Davis last week, as he got his first start for Carolina while facing a stout Chargers rush defense. This week you can start him with confidence. Davis was productive, if inefficient, on the ground with 13 carries for 46 yards, but shined once again as a receiver. Those in PPR leagues, especially, can rejoice as for the second straight game Davis caught eight passes, and he scored his first touchdown as a Panther. With Carolina facing a high flying Arizona offense, the Panthers will have to score plenty for a chance to, so expect more of the same for Davis. Especially considering the Cardinals are among the worst in the league at defending pass catching running backs. Most of that was allowed to Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon but given the Panthers could be throwing early and often, Davis should be very active. Even if Carolina decides to grind it out and play keep away from the Cardinals offense, his 13 carries last week are a good sign that he'll be heavily involved. He might not be Christian McCaffrey but he'll do just fine in the meantime.
Also consider: James Robinson (@ CIN) – The surprising new centerpiece of the Jacksonville offense, has improved every week so far, and now Robinson gets to face a bad Bengals defense. Devin Singletary (@ LV) – Even if Zack Moss is healthy, Singletary has been efficient on the ground and productive through the air, and running backs can do whatever they want against the Raiders.
WR: Allen Lazard (vs ATL) – There are only a few matchups this season that could make a wide receiver smile more than seeing the Falcons on the schedule. Lazard was already smiling as his rapport with Aaron Rodgers continued to grow last week, with Lazard going for over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. Now Lazard and the Packers get a Falcons secondary that has allowed over 200 yards receiving to wide-outs in every game so far this season, and is without Darqueze Dennard. Atlanta rookie A.J. Terrell could also miss the game due to COVID-19. Even if Davante Adams plays, Lazard will have a sizable role as Green Bay's primary slot receiver. Lazard has seen his targets increase each week. In what should be a shootout, without Adams, Lazard could be a high upside flex, even if Adams plays Lazard should put up a solid stat line.
Also consider: Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller (vs MIN) – Guessing which Texans WR has a big game can be tough, but against an awful Vikings defense, they both could be good plays. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry (@ DAL) – A great matchup against a banged up Cowboys secondary, plus the Browns might have to pass a lot just to keep up.
TE: T.J. Hockenson (vs NO) – At least four catches and 50 yards in every game so far this season, Hockenson has been nothing if not reliable. While the sophomore only caught four of his seven targets last week, those seven targets were the most he's had this season, and he had caught every single one of his targets the first two weeks. The fact that Hockenson saw his most targets in Kenny Golloday's first game back from injury is a good sign for the tight end to have a sizable role in the Detroit offense going forward. There aren't many tight ends with floors as stable as Hockenson's, and this week he faces a defense that will raise his ceiling significantly. The Saints have given up at least one touchdown to a tight end in every game so far this season, and over 100 yards receiving the past two weeks. Last week that was to a Packers offense that doesn't usually utilize its tight ends much in the passing game. With a projected point total for the game of 54, you couldn't ask for a much better situation this week for Hockenson.
Also consider: Mo Alie-Cox (@ CHI) – Not a great matchup but Philip Rivers needs to throw somewhere and Alie-Cox seems to have his trust.
Sit
QB: Tom Brady (vs LAC) – Last week Brady seemed to have found his footing in the Buccaneers offense, but don't go all in on the veteran just yet. The Broncos defense he faced is depleted due to injury and while the Chargers have had some major injuries also, they are still one of the sterner defenses in the league. The only quarterback to throw for more than 250 yards against the Chargers was Patrick Mahomes and while Brady might be the G.O.A.T., Mahomes and the Chiefs are significantly better than Brady and the Bucs right now. Especially with Chris Godwin likely to miss the game, Brady's offense could struggle mightily. The Chargers are among the best defending the run and Mike Evans will have his hands full finding space against Casey Hayward. Tampa Bay definitely showed offensive progress last week but Brady has still turned the ball over four times already this season (three interceptions and a lost fumble). This might not be the best week to trust that Brady takes another step forward.
Be wary about: Cam Newton (@ KC) – The Chiefs just bottled up Lamar Jackson, and Cam just struggled against the Raiders, you can hope a shootout leads to points for Cam but don't bank on it. Justin Herbert (@ TB) – The rookie has looked good in his first two starts but don't roll him out in fantasy just yet, especially against a tough Tampa defense.
RB: Adrian Peterson (vs NO) – All signs seem to pointing up for Peterson, coming off a 22 carry performance against Arizona last week, but let's pump the brakes on this future Hall of Famer. Those 22 carries went for just 75 yards, a 3.4 yards per carry average. He only has 4 catches for 31 yards through three games, so he isn't helping you as a pass catcher, and he hasn't reached the end zone yet this season. The kind of volume he saw last week is rare in today's NFL, especially for a 35 year old running back. There's even a chance Peterson continues to see this many carries, as rookie D'Andre Swift didn't get a single one, but the presence of Swift and veteran Kerryon Johnson should always cause you to be hesitant when playing Peterson. Swift, not Peterson is being used as the pass catching back, which limits Peterson's ceiling. Against a New Orleans Saints defense that just held the younger and more explosive Aaron Jones to just 88 yards on 23 carries, yards on the ground will be tough to come by for Peterson. Until he becomes more active in the passing game it's tough to trust Peterson in such a difficult matchup.
Be wary about: David Montgomery (vs IND) – He will see a bit of added volume going forward without Cohen, but the Colts have yet to allow over 100 yards rushing in a game, and Montgomery has also done so twice in his career, neither time was this season. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II (vs LAC) – Against one of the top rush defenses in the league, do you really want to try and guess which of these RBs gets more carries this week? Plus, Fournette is dealing with an ankle injury.
WR: Terry McLaurin (vs BAL) – His own opportunity and talent aren't the issue for McLaurin; it's the surrounding talent that keeps him from consistent elite production. This week will be an especially tough challenge. No matter where McLaurin lines up on the field he'll be facing a top tier cornerback. Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, and Jimmy Smith make up arguably the best cornerback group in the league. Don't let the Ravens struggles defending Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense make you think Baltimore's defense isn't still tough. Dwayne Haskins isn't Mahomes, and the rest of Washington's offense isn't talented enough to open the field up for McLaurin to break out. Washington is hoping that McLaurin and Haskins grow together to be an elite pairing, but until the sophomore passer takes a sizable step forward the quarterback will hold the wide receiver back. In one of the worst matchups for receivers, don't expect a big game from McLaurin.
Be wary about: Adam Thielen (@HOU) – You're starting him but he could get shadow coverage from Bradley Roby (who has been great against the likes of Tyreek Hill and Marquise Brown so far this season) so keep expectations in check.
TE: Tyler Higbee (vs NYG) – Higbee hasn't had more than five targets in a game so far this season, and last week he saw a whopping two. His three touchdowns in Week 2 show what kind of ceiling he can have but he had just 54 yards, his most so far this season, to go with those touchdowns. Look at the other two weeks, combined Higbee had just six targets go for five catches and 80 yards. When he gets the ball it's usually for big yardage, but as long as Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are healthy, Higbee's low volume means he is reliant on touchdowns to have a big fantasy week. So far all of his scores came in the same week; it might not be something you should count on. This week Higbee actually has a tough matchup in the New York Giants. Week 1 the Giants held Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald to a combined two catches for 21 yards. The following week Jimmy Graham had one catch for 18 yards, and just last week they limited the 49ers, admittedly banged up, tight ends to six catches for 72 yards. If you start Higbee you're holding out hope for a touchdown, something New York has yet to give up to a tight end, so if you have a better option, go with them instead.
Be wary about: Mike Gesicki (vs SEA) – He's still an important part of the offense and this could be a high scoring game, but tight end is one of the few positions the Seahawks defend very well.
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Follow Moshe Kravitz on Twitter @MosheKravitz
