It’s that time of year again.
The time of the year where I, Jack Fritz, once again give the Phillies the blueprint to ending their now decade long playoff drought.
For the first time in a long-time, however, there’s some hope in Phillies land. Dave Dombrowski has consistently built winners dating all the way back to early 90’s with the Montreal Expos and in reading his comments earlier this week, it’s just nice to have a President of Baseball Ops/General Manager that doesn’t make me feel existential dread after listening to them talk like the last regime.
Given what Dombrowski said earlier this week out at the GM meetings in California about looking for an impact bat, a closer and a couple outfielders, I believe that I have given him the blueprint to bring playoff baseball back to Philadelphia.
(For a full breakdown of mine and James’ perfect offseason, listen to the latest episode of High Hopes! Also, this is all predicate on the DH coming to the NL, which it probably will)
Here we go:
The big moves:
1. Signing Trevor Story to a 5 year, $120 million contract
Trevor Story is the third best free agent SS on the market, but for the price, and the Phils need at that position, it’s a no-brainer for me. I believe very much in Bryson Stott, but to ask that kid to come up and start at SS from day 1 for a team vying for playoff contention is a lot to handle. Story would alleviate that pressure in a big way. He’s a good defender and is a middle of the order bat that would have 30 HR potential at Citizens Bank Park from the shortstop position. Contract reminds me a lot of the George Springer deal from last offseason and if things break right for the Phils, having Story holding down shortstop for the next five years would be a massive win for the Phils.
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2. Signing Seiya Suzuki to a 3 year $24 million contract
Suzuki is awesome, and given that he won’t cost the Phillies a third round pick to sign, (after having to give up your second rounder to sign Story), he makes for an ideal addition to this lineup and defense.
Let’s start with the bat. Last year, he hit 38 homers, had a stat-line of: .319 AVG/.436 OBP/.640 SLG and walked more than he struck out all in his age 27 season, which suggests he’s just entering his prime. Obviously, it’s unrealistic to expect those numbers here, but I think a .280 avg with 25-30 HR’s is realistic and I’ll take that from either left or centerfield. Speaking of defense, he’s already won 4 gold gloves playing in Japan so he wouldn’t hurt this team defensively at all.
3. Trading Simon Muzziotti and James MacArthur for Kevin Kiermaier
Not totally sure these two get it done, but they’re both in the top 20 of Phils prospects in the system. Either way, I’m making a trade to bring Kevin Kiermaier here. He’s paid through this season and has an affordable club option for next season so the CF position is locked down for the next two seasons.
Simply put, Kiermaier is the best defensive center-fielder in the sport and it seems like the time where the Rays move him. Offensively, he leaves much to be desired but if he keeps up elite defense and gives me 20 homers out of the eight or nine-hole in the Phils lineup that’s a win for me.
4. Trading Erik Miller, Yhoswar Garcia and another prospect to the Oakland A’s for Lou Trivino
Again, I think this trade package gets the A’s close to making this deal, if not I am willing to do more. Regardless, it feels like we’re heading towards another A’s teardown. It seems like everyone is for sale at the right price in Oakland and given what Dombrowski said about wanting a closer, Trivino makes a lot of sense.
He’s got two arbitration years left, which means he’ll start getting expensive for the A’s and given the two years of control it should be enticing for the Phils to sure up the ninth inning with an ascending guy rather than overpaying in free agency for an older closer, (like Rasiel Iglesias or Kenly Jansen) or trading for a guy with one year until free agency, (like Josh Hader). Relievers are pretty volatile, but given Trivino’s track record and stuff, I don’t see him slowing down any time soon and if I’m Dave Dombrowski I’m monitoring that situation in Oakland very closely.
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Minor moves to round out the roster:
1. Re-signing Hector Neris to a 1 year $5 million deal
Neris was very good last year outside of the closer's role and anyone with two eyes could see that. Getting him back year to help out the middle-innings and be the bridge to the back of the bullpen would be a win for this team.
2. Trading Mickey Moniak and Cristian Hernandez to the Pirates for David Bednar
I know this trade won’t move the needle for most of you, but Bednar had a breakout season last year and is a guy that makes sense for the Phils to target in a trade. The Pirates are years away from contention, holding onto a guy like Bednar doesn’t really make sense and they almost had Hernandez in the deal that was supposed to send Tyler Anderson to Philadelphia last year.
Bednar throws hard, strikes out a ton of batters, pitched to a 2.23 ERA last year and would be under club control for the next 5 years. Bednar is a guy that would help this bullpen a ton.
3. Signing Corey Knebel for 2 years $16 million
I don’t love paying free agent relievers, but Knebel is worth the shot. He’s got a power fastball and a high-spin, hammer curve that would be a great equalizer at the back-end of the Phils bullpen. Staying healthy has always been Knebel’s problem, but when healthy he’s one of the best in the sport, stuff-wise. It’s risky, but you have to take chances when the bullpen needs as much help as this one.
4. Signing Brett Gardner to a one year, $3 million deal
I’m not sure Gardner ever leaves New York but if he does, the Phils should bring him in. Gardner the player doesn’t really bring much to the table anymore, but Gardner the leader still provides a ton of value. Think of Chase Utley when he left here and went out to L.A. That’s what I’m looking for with Gardner.
I know I’m playing with fire here in bringing in a Girardi guy, and there’s risk of batting him way too much, but this clubhouse needs guys that have won before and Gardner has done that. Dombrowski said as much this week at the GM meetings. The Phillies need to figure ways to win games and I believe Gardner would help them from that standpoint.
5. Trade Didi Gregorious and whatever top 10-20 Phils prospect to the Colorado Rockies for a PTBNL
I don’t care what it takes, but getting Didi off the books for this year is imperative. I don’t care if they don’t get anything back and they have to take a prospect just to move him but getting that money off the books is crucial to this offseason. Rockies lose Story, don’t have a natural replacement, why not?
6. Signing Johnny Cueto for 1 year $5 million
Cueto is nothing more than an experienced innings eater at this point in his career, but that’s all I need until Zach Eflin is ready to return and he provides insurance if anyone else happens to go down in that rotation. On paper, the Phils rotation should be fine. Wheeler, Nola, Gibson, Eflin and Ranger is formidable, but having a guy like Cueto gives them another arm so you’re not relying on Hans Crouse or Bailey Falter to be put into position that they might not be ready for.
If Cueto gives me 6 innings and pitches to a 4 ERA that’s a win from a guy I just need some innings out of.
Final roster:
C: J.T Realmuto/Rafael Marchan
1B: Rhys Hoskins/Alec Bohm
2B: Bryson Stott
SS: Trevor Story
3B: Jean Segura
OF: Seiya Suzuki, Matt Vierling, Brett Gardner, Kevin Keirmaier, Bryce Harper
SP: Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Kyle Gibson, Johnny Cueto (until Eflin is back)
RP: Lou Trivino, Hector Neris, David Bednar, Corey Knebel, Sam Coonrod, Jose Alvarado, Connor Brogdon, Seranthony Dominguez, Bailey Falter (can fluctuate with minor league options but you get the premise)