Is this real?
Be honest: How many times have you uttered the phrase "the Phillies are in the World Series" this week? For me, it's probably upward of 50.
As I write this, I'm sitting on a United Airlines flight to Houston, Texas to represent WIP at Game 1 and 2 of this series. Four weeks ago, the Phillies were coming off a sweep at the hands of the Cubs at Wrigley Field and were rooting for playoff magic number help from the Miami Marlins. The whole thing is surreal, and one of the most improbable runs we've ever seen in this city.
What happens next? Can the Phillies actually pull this off and give Philadelphia a parade?
Here are 10 takes and predictions for the 2022 World Series.
1. Aaron Nola in Game 1, Zack Wheeler in Game 2 was the right call.
Both Nola and Wheeler are demonstrably better with extra rest. By pushing Wheeler back to Game 2, both will start on extra rest in Houston. And let's not forget the comebacker Wheeler took off his knee in the fourth inning of Game 5 against the Padres. An extra day can only help the soreness.
Plus, there's a real chance the Phillies are thinking ahead to a potential Game 7 in this series. Right now, it lines up for Nola to pitch Game 1 and Game 5, Wheeler in Game 2 and Game 6. I seriously doubt the Phillies would have asked Wheeler (just one month removed from missing a full month with a forearm issue) to pitch at all in Game 7. Nola may be a different story. He's a workhorse. He's healthy. He's strong enough to do it. If we get to Game 7, Nola is the more likely of the two top guys to give an inning or two out of the bullpen. It could be the difference.
2. Bryce Harper was built for this.
Harper is this generation's Reggie Jackson. His flair for the dramatic is rare. His left-handed power is outrageous. But what struck me about his pennant-winning home run in Game 5 vs. San Diego was how calm he was, both during and after the ball was struck. Harper has grown up in many ways since debuting as the brash, cocky 19-year-old that wore eye black and crashed into walls at every turn. He's a veteran now, and almost seemed destined for that moment.
And as for my Harper-for-Juan Soto trade idea in July? I'd still do it. The idea was never about wanting to move off Harper. It was about the chance to acquire a player as young and great as Soto. Harper is Jackson 2.0. Soto might be a mix between Ted Williams and Frank Thomas, plus he's eight years younger. But since any sort of trade is nothing more than a hypothetical, let's enjoy Harper's Hall of Fame career and special postseason run.
3. This is not the World Series mismatch that it may appear.
The 19-win gap between the Phillies and Astros is the biggest delta in World Series history. When I first heard that earlier this week, it shocked me. 538 ranked it as the seventh biggest mismatch in World Series history. Almost every expert out there has the Astros, some in as few as five games. The betting market is giving Houston about a 62 percent chance of winning it all.
That all seems over the top to me. Is Houston better? Of course. Should they be the favorite? Yes. But since Rob Thomson took over, the Astros are 81-38 and the Phillies are 75-48. It's a gap, but it's not outrageous. This rendition of the Phillies is so far different from the one from April and May that long-term views on the team and this matchup don't feel applicable.
4. The matchup reminds me of the 1993 World Series.
I feel like it's the early-90s all over again. Upstart Phillies team. Favored American League power with a World Series championship already under their belt. Home field for the AL side, including games within a dome. An all-time leader (Kyle Schwarber now, Darren Daulton then) and one future Hall of Famer (Harper now, Curt Schilling then) leading the way vs. a battle-tested champion. Let's just hope the outcome is different this time.
5. Don't assume the Astros have the more potent offense.
We can give Houston the pitching advantage. The Astros have the better defense. But this isn't the Astros lineup of old. George Springer, Carlos Correa and Michael Branley aren't there. Houston's offense is good, but lacks depth throughout the order. The bottom of the lineup features some black holes. And this might surprise you: The Phillies actually outscored Houston (747-737) during the regular season.
6. I sense cockiness from the Astros side.
Houston is attempting to become the first team since the Big Red Machine Astros to have a perfect postseason. So far, so good with sweeps of the Mariners and Yankees. But instead of dismissing the idea of a sweep of the Phillies, the Astros have acknowledged the idea of this potential feat during media sessions this week. It reminds me a bit of the undefeated New England Patriots talking about history being made before actually winning Super Bowl 42. That didn't work out well for them,
7. Forget house money. This is probably the Phillies best chance at a ring with this group.
It's tough to put what the Phillies are doing in context because it's so wildly unexpected. There's a (fair) sense that this group has figured it out and we're watching the start of a reawakening of baseball in Philadelphia. Perhaps that's true, with help on the way in the form of top prospects like Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry (not to mention John Middleton's willingness to land more stars on the open market). But let's not forget what this postseason has taught us: It's really hard to couple major regular season success with postseason excellence. The Phillies best players are around 30. Could next year be a better regular season, with, say, 93 wins? Sure. Does that mean another World Series trip will be in order? Hardly. This run feels like house money. It should. But it also might be the only trip to the casino this group gets. They have to take advantage and finish it with a title.
8. Rob Thomson must be aggressive in an area we rarely talk about.
I have really appreciated Thomson's bullpen aggressiveness in the playoffs. When there's a game to win, he goes for it. If that means using Seranthony Dominguez for six outs and not having him the next night, so be it. In the World Series, how about that same kind of aggression with defensive substitutions? If there's a lead late, get Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Casteallnos (assuming Dalton Guthrie is on the roster) off the field for the best possible defensive lineup. Houston is one of the best contact rate teams in baseball. The ball will be put in play. Get the best guys out there to catch it and preserve leads.
9. Brandon Marsh is an x-factor, and could be the out-of-nowhere World Series MVP.
Is it strange to highlight a potential World Series MVP that just went 0-for-13 in the NLCS? Maybe. But Marsh is a unique x-factor in this series because of his familiarity with Astros pitching from his Angels days. Marsh will likely sit in Game 2 vs. lefty Framber Valdez, but should start games against righties Justin Verlander, Christian Javier and Lance McCullers.
Here's how Marsh has fared vs. those three Astros:
PA: 20
AB: 17
H: 7
AVG: .350
OBP: .500
Since getting to the Phillies, Marsh's hard-hit rate is up over five percent. He's pulling the ball more. His strikeout percentage has fallen by six percent. The matchup is good. He knows this park in Houston. In a close series, center field defense can matter. Marsh is a 150-1 long shot to win the World Series MVP at FanDuel, if you're interested in that sort of thing.
10. I'll stay on brand with a prediction for the series.
I doubted this team. I didn't think they could have this kind of run. To stay on brand (and not mess up the karma of this run), I'll predict the Astros in 6. Let's hope I'm wrong again about the 2022 Phillies.
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