Get ready to be entertained at Citizens Bank Park.
For the first time in a long time, the Phillies are poised to be fun. After a $179M spending spree on Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, the 2022 Phillies look ready to seriously compete for a postseason spot in the National League and change the entire decade-long negative tenor that's built up in this fan base.
Here are 12 takeaways from the two big-ticket signings and what it all means for the franchise now and moving forward.
1. John Middleton finally paid the tax
Finally! After years of spending right up to the limit but never one cent over, Middleton (and Phillies minority owners) greenlighted moving the payroll past the first luxury tax threshold of $230M. I've been very critical of Middleton in the past, but this development is noteworthy and should be praised. In a division with the smart Braves and free-spending Mets, Middleton's money is the only competitive advantage the Phillies currently have. Not using it felt like organizational malpractice. The owner is finally all in, and presumably will be all year (unless the team disappoints and fire sale commences).
2. Dave Dombrowski's best attribute is persuasiveness
Is Dombrowski the keenest talent evaluator? I'd say no. Is he finding undervalued players buried in rival organizations and giving them a chance to flourish on his team? Not really. Are we totally sure he was watching the sport regularly from 2019 and 2020? I wouldn't bet on it. But the one thing Dombrowski does better than almost any general manager in baseball is persuade owners to spend their cash when stars are available. Dombrowski sold Middleton on Castellanos and paid the tax. If nothing else, that'll be his positive legacy in Philly.
3. Bryce Harper's great power comes with great responsibility
At this point, we might as well add Assistant General Manager to Bryce Harper's credentials. The Phillies highest-paid and best player was public about his support for J.T. Realmuto one year ago. He banged the table for big names like Schwarber and Castellanos. Soon, Bryson Stott (Harper's friend and roommate) will unseat Didi Gregorius at shortstop. One year ago, Harper suggested Brandon Kintzler as a bullpen piece. The organization listens, which is a blessing and a curse. It's fun now because we're excited for two big boppers. But Harper's power will come with drawbacks as time goes on, including a Realmuto contract that could look ugly in time.
4. Kyle Schwarber is exactly what this team needed
Yes, he gets on base. Yes, he has light-tower power. Those are the baseball reasons to pay Schwarber nearly $80M. But there's a bigger reason I'm excited for this signing. Schwarber is a winner. The Phillies don't have winners, and have seemingly had no idea how to turn into winners for years. Schwarber has more career postseason plate appearances than the rest of the roster combined. He's a baseball rat, and can be an infectious part of the clubhouse culture. Theo Epstein once called Schwarber "the heartbeat" of his great Cubs team. The Phillies have lacked heart for years. Now they've got it.
5. Nick Castellanos puts everyone in their rightful place
Castellanos' power, gap-to-gap mentality and attitude was worth $20M per season. But his presence will do something else almost equally important: Put everyone in their proper roles. The Phillies have miscast hitters for years because no better options existed. Realmuto doesn't belong in a central run producing spot. Hoskins could be a No. 1 or No. 2 hitter (when he's trying to be selective) or No. 5 guy, but his streakiness worked against him as a cleanup hitter protecting Harper. The lineup will make more sense now with Castellanos hitting behind the reigning NL MVP.
6. This offense is going to rake
If Schwarber had enough at-bats to qualify, the Phillies would be entering a season with three hitters that finished in the top-10 in OPS ranking last year. That list doesn't include Hoskins, a threat to hit 30 home runs and 30 doubles. It doesn't include one of baseball's best offensive catches. It doesn't include Jean Segura, a career .285 hitter. Fangraphs projects the Phillies to score 4.88 runs per game, good for fourth-best in all of baseball.
7. No more excuses for Joe Girardi
It's a lame duck year for a (mostly) lame Phillies manager. I've been totally unimpressed with Girardi's managing across his two seasons in Philadelphia. Something tells me Dombrowksi felt similar in 2021 since Girardi's team option for 2023 was not picked up. I don't want to hear the excuses for Girardi in 2022. The team is not perfect, but it's playoff-worthy. High-scoring close games could be the norm. Girardi entered Philadelphia with a reputation of being good with the bullpen, yet his Phillies bullpens have combined to post a 5.20 ERA. If that doesn't change, the Phillies will have a new manager one year from now.
8. This defense is going to be as bad as you fear
We can be excited for offense and hopeful about the pitching, but reality should set in about the defense: It's going to be rough. The only above average regulars are Segura and Realmuto, and both are on the wrong side of 30 at positions that see sudden and steep decline. Don't be surprised if we see a lot of Johan Camargo at third base, Stott at shortstop and perhaps the arrival of Johan Rojas by late summer to remedy the issues in center field.
9. The Phillies better be right about Bryson Stott
Schwarber and Castellanos for less total money ($179M) than Kris Bryant ($182) looks like a coup for the Phillies front office. But it's fair to wonder why money wasn't spent on Carlos Correa (three years, $105) to man shortstop. Correa is the best player of the four, and would have been a hedge on Stott or insurance at third base for Alec Bohm. The Phillies spent, and that should be commended. But they could have landed the best available free agent, made the defense far better and still had payroll flexibility to address other needs if Correa was the target.
10. The playoffs are in sight, but hardly a lock
Here's how I'd rank the National League playoff contenders right now: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Giants, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Cardinals. Eight teams for six spots, with the Marlins lurking as a possible surprise. The Phillies are right there, and anything less than 85 wins should be considered a major disappointment. But October isn't a lock, even with the expanded postseason.
11. Rhys Hoskins' future likely isn't in Philadelphia
The Phillies currently have five players (Harper, Zack Wheeler, Realmuto, Schwarber, Castellanos) making around $20M or more on the year-to-year luxury tax calculations. Are the Phillies willing to add a sixth, basically guaranteeing about half of the franchise's payroll to just six players (five of which are non-pitchers)? I doubt it. By making two big, long-term deals for sluggers with defensive concerns this week, the writing is on the wall for Hoskins as his time to free agency ticks away before the end of the 2023 season. Don't be surprised if Hoskins is swapped for pitching between now and then.
12. Here's how I'd draw up the Opening Day lineup vs. the Athletics:
Schwarber DH
Segura 4
Harper 9
Castellanos 7
Hoskins 3
Realmuto 2
Gregorius 6
Bohm 5
Herrera 8
