What a ride.
In a matter of months, the 2022 Phillies went from a roller coaster that made you feel sick to one of the best runs the franchise has ever given this fan base.
Now that the World Series is over, it's time to look to the future.
A sense of optimism is (rightfully) abound regarding this team's future. Most of the core will be back for 2023. The team learned how to win under manager Rob Thomson. Postseason experience will now follow them into the future. Unfinished business should be the theme of spring training.
While that all sounds good, making it back and winning the World Series. In the last 35 years, only three teams (2022 Astros, 2015 Royals, 1989 A's) won the World Series in the year following a loss in the Fall Classic. It's hard to reach the mountain top. It's really hard to almost get all the way to the top, fall short, and climb back again from the bottom the next year.
If the 2023 Phillies are going to accomplish that goal, work needs to be done this offseason.
Here's a plan for Dave Dombrowski to follow.
1. Correctly guess how close Andrew Painter is to impacting the big league rotation.
Everything hinges on this assessment of the Phillies phenom. If Painter is expected to win a job in spring training, the Phillies shouldn't use the bulk of their offseason budget on a high-level starting pitcher. If Painter is further away that perception would lead us to believe, then a big-time arm is necessary. Before balking at the idea of a 20-year-old impacting a pennant race, consider Dombrowski's history with young pitchers like Josh Beckett in Florida and Rick Porcello in Detroit. If a young pitcher is deemed special by this executive, he's given every chance to pitch meaningful innings at the highest level.
2. Sign an appropriate level starting pitcher.
Let's say Painter can give the Phillies between 130-150 innings next season. Add in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola (one of baseball's true work horses) and Ranger Suarez, and the bulk of a rotation is in place. The Phillies would be in need of a fourth-ish starter, preferably one that can soak up innings. That could come in the form of a trade, perhaps swapping out a maddening slugger to a team in need of offensive help. Or through the free-agent market with a name like, say, Jordan Lyles or Wade Miley. If Painter's accelerated path is less optimistic for 2023, trading or signing a true mid-tier starter has to be a top priority.
3. Sign an impact bat.
This likely comes at shortstop, but could arrive at a different position while a re-engineering of the offense arrives. The Phillies were a good regular season offense, but felt a bat short all postseason long. Perhaps Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott continue to grow into top-half-of-the-lineup hitters and/or Nick Castellanos returns to competence, but the Phillies can't simply count on that.
4. Sort through the star shortstops, and get Bryson Stott ready to play second base.
Here's how I would rank the four star shortstops available on the free agent market:
Trea Turner: The best of the bunch. As fast as any player in baseball. Would fit perfectly in the No. 2 spot in the order behind Kyle Schwarber and in front of Bryce Harper. Will enter 2023 with a .302 lifetime average. Reminds me of Barry Larkin.
Carlos Correa: The youngest of the group, with the highest upside. Correa is an outstanding defender. He smashes the ball. He's a leader. He can bat second or fourth in the lineup. As he ages, a strong arm and quick hands will allow for a smooth transition to third base.
Xander Bogaerts: Perhaps the best pure hitter of the group, and an extra base hit machine. Red Sox fans are already upset about potentially losing him, which gives you a glimpse of how good and clutch he can be.
Dansby Swanson: Fourth only because someone had to be fourth on a list like this. Would rake against lefties if sandwiched between Schwarber and Harper in the lineup.
5. Decide on Rhys Hoskins' future, including outside-the-box trade ideas.
If the Phillies don't plan on signing Hoskins to an extension after 2023, it's time to truly explore trades this winter.
Here are a couple trade ideas.
Hoskins to Cleveland for a flame-throwing relief pitcher: Would the Guardians swap, say, Sam Hentges (2.32 ERA, 10.5 SO/9) or Trevor Stephan (2.69 ERA, 11.6 SO/9) for Hoskins' 30-homer power? Considering how well that franchise develops arms and how little they could score, perhaps a deal could make sense for both sides.
Hoskins to Chicago White Sox for shortstop Tim Anderson: Here me out on this one. Chicago has to rethink its core after underachieving. While Anderson's 2023 team option was picked up, The Athletic's White Sox beat reporter recently guessed Anderson would be traded this winter. While a Hoskins-for-Anderson swap may seem lopsided, it's not egregious. Chicago could lose Jose Abreu, and will need to replace his production. Anderson, who plays with a Jimmy Rollins-like energy and intensity, coud be a far cheaper alternative to any of the big-name shortstops. Over the last three years, Anderson owns a .309 batting average.
As for first base, if Hoskins is gone? Sign Anthony Rizzo ASAP. That guy is a winner, excellent defensive first baseman, doesn't strike out a ton, and provides power.
Something like this could work as a typical lineup vs. right-handed pitching.
Schwarber
Anderson
Harper
Realmuto
Rizzo
Bohm
Stott
Castellanos
Marsh
6. Get Bryce Harper back in right field ASAP.
If surgery needs to be done, make sure it's done now. The Phillies were hamstrung by Harper's injury, but made the best of it. He needs to play right field for the bulk of the 2023 season.
7. Acquire two legitimate relief pitchers.
Maybe one comes from a Hoskins trade. Maybe one is a one-year deal like we saw with Brad Hand or Jeurys Familia. Maybe one is an expensive, impact arm. Right now, I'll lock Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Connor Brogdon and Andrew Bellatti into the Opening Day bullpen. Let's give a spot to Bailey Falter as a long reliever/sixth starter. That leaves three spots. My big free agent idea: Kenley Jansen. My under-the-radar arm that will pay dividends: Matt Wisler. My prospect to watch: Griff McGary.
8. Be prepared to bail on Nick Castellanos as an everyday player.
Castellanos was terrible in 2022. He can't be allowed to play as poorly and still receive everyday at bats in 2023. If a slow start commences, I'd be quick to platoon Darrick Hall and Castellanos as a DH pairing. If Harper's elbow forces Castellanos back into an everyday outfield spot, Dombrowski should scour the non-tender market for a possible platoon partner. The contract can't matter. If Castellanos doesn't hit, he sits.
9. Improve as a contact team and walk-rate team.
Despite how the World Series played out, the Phillies weren't a terrible strikeout team in 2022, ranking 14th in strikeouts per game. They ranked 15th in walks per game. Is there a way to nudge both outcomes into top 10 status? If Anderson and Rizzo arrive, a top-10 offense could become a top-5 offense.
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