The debate is over.
Gabe Kapler wasn't the problem with the Phillies.
That much is clear to anyone watching since the start of the 2020 season. Since moving on from Kapler, the Phillies have been the same moribound, .500-ish club they were during his time here. Only the latest two renditions of the Phillies have been more expensive and with more name-brand talent.
And as for Kapler? His Giants own the best record in the sport as the Phillies get set for a weekend series in San Francisco. The 2021 Giants are 44-25, sport a plus-86 run differential and are pacing a division that was supposed to have the two best teams in baseball above them.
While the initial results of the Kapler-Phillies divorce are clear, the future will be even less kind to Phillies owner John Middleton. Kapler isn't just having a good first 129 games out west; he's poised to become Terry Fracona 2.0.
Yes, Kapler is going to win the World Series and soon be recognized as one of baseball's best managers.
Oh, it might not be this year. The 2021 Giants were projected for 75 wins (an over bet that's likely to cash in August) and still need to complete the 162-game grind in the NL West. Projection systems are coming around and realizing how good Kapler's team is right now, but a date with a one-game wild card or NLDS bout with the Dodgers or Padres might be where baseball's biggest surprise ends this season.
But it's coming, and likely sooner than later.
Kapler, much like Francona decades before him, was a young manager in a bad situation. There was no one anyone with clear eyes could have expected Fracona to manage the late-90s Phillies to October. The same can be said when combing through the 2018 and 2019 Phillies teams. It's a miracle those teams were even close to .500, let alone atop the NL East for long stretches.
Then Francona was fired, and found his way to Theo Epstein in Boston. A brilliant general manager capable of finding diamonds in the rough, turning over the 40-man roster and building a juggernaut. Francona pushed the right buttons on his way to laying the foundation of a Hall of Fame career.
Now Kapler has found Farhan Zaidi. If you aren't familiar, you'll know the name soon. Zaidi, who learned under Billy Beane and Andrew Friendman, has done as good (if not better) of a job than any executive in the sport over the last couple of years. The Giants roster, while not great, is deep, versatile and has options for a smart manager to use every single night. It's basically the antithesis of the 40-man roster the Phillies have been rolling out since the start of the 2019 season.
And Kapler has used it exceptionally, mixing and matching veterans, young players, and castoffs trying to re-establish themselves as regulars. Few managers have gotten more out of older players (Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford are suddenly MVP candidates in their waning years), the bench (no team has more pinch hit home runs than the Giants) and depth pieces. Zaidi, as with any team architect, deserves the bulk of credit for the Giants becoming the surprise of the sport, but Kapler is the runaway National League Manager of the Year.
The part that should be eye-opening? This was supposed to be another transition year for Zaidi and Kapler. The prospects are on the way. Money is coming off the books. Instead? The best record in the National League.
When Kapler was fired, I cited Francona's departure here. I criticized Middleton for short-sighted thinking. I told anyone listening that Kapler's performance in Philadelphia was far more good than bad, and that he'd be a successful manager elsewhere. That would be especially true if he found a competent organization and smart front office. That's happened to an even greater degree than I anticipated.
Kapler was a polarizing Phillies manager. That was true from his first game in the dugout. He was learning on the job, and made some high-profile mistakes. When his tenure ended, many were thrilled. Now that he's had some success, it's easy to ignore it and focus on the Phillies issues (including Joe Girardi's less-than-great performance in the chair). It won't be easy for long.
Francona's overwhelming success shined light on how inept the Phillies were. Kapler is on the track to doing the same thing. This story is going to end with the scapegoat for Phillies mistakes hoisting a World Series trophy.
