On Monday, the Phillies made one more attempt to improve the worst bullpen in Major League Baseball by trading for David Phelps. That capped off a week in which Matt Klentak put the bullpen through a full-blown makeover. The Phillies right now are a top five offensive team and their starting pitching for the most part has been solid despite their high ERA.
A shortened-season comes with volatile playoff odds, but right now the Phillies have almost a 75% chance to make the expanded playoffs. With that expectation set, can this Phillies team make a run? Let's look at the outlook of this team for the remaining 30 games (and beyond).
The Bullpen
On paper, the Phillies look like:
6th - Morgan, Parker, Romero, Alvarez, Suarez
7th – Workman, Hunter
8th – Phelps
9th – Neris
That's a massive improvement.
Between Phelps, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman and David Hale, the best add is Phelps and it's not close. Phelps has the potential to be a dominant reliever and he is exactly the type of late inning reliever the Phillies needed. Hembree and Workman are not particularly good. Both are getting hit hard and both don't have chase-type off-speed pitches. Workman could be a sixth or seventh inning option, but Girardi might favor match-up options with guys like JoJo Romero, Blake Parker and Adam Morgan.
Another big bullpen addition off the Injured List is Ranger Suarez, who was recalled on Monday. Even with Workman and Hembree's subpar performances, Hector Neris rebounding and Tommy Hunter's decent performance really solidifies the bullpen options that were once all miserable. Even if this bullpen is average the rest of the way, it's a massive upgrade for the team.
The Rotation
Aaron Nola is pitching like he did in 2018. Zach Wheeler is pitching well despite the lack of strikeouts. Zach Eflin went from a backend starter to the third option after picking up some velocity and movement on his sinker and incorporating a nice looking curveball.
Outside of those three, Spencer Howard seems like the lone serviceable option. He has pitched on talent alone and is still developing, but when he runs into a good hitter, he is often bested. We also should mention how Jake Arrieta is proving to be the worst contract in franchise history.
The Lineup
The Phillies… have a top five offense in baseball?
.262 AVG – 5th
.348 OBP – 2nd
.465 SLG – 4th
.345 wOBA – 2nd
116 wRC+ - T-4th
Even after Bryce Harper cooled off from his MVP-caliber start and JT Realmuto slowed down, the rest of the offense came alive. Hoskins is on a tear, McCutchen rebounded, Didi has stayed consistent. The last time the lineup was this good statistically was in 2009.
The "Second Half"
The Phillies will play 30 games in 27 days, including five doubleheaders. That's 340 innings of baseball. Nola, Wheeler and Eflin cover 102 of those if they average six innings over their potential 17 combined starts. The Phillies have 21 games split evenly between the Nationals, Mets, and Marlins. The last series is against one of the best teams in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays. It helps all three of those teams aren't playing well, but bullpen depth will be the key to surviving this strenuous stretch to the regular season.
The Playoffs
The Phillies should make the playoffs and they honestly can make a run if everything clicks. The roster is talented, the offense looks like it will sustain this success, and Nola and Wheeler are a great one-two punch that helps your chances of escaping the wild card round (best-of-three series). Girardi will have confidence in Phelps and Neris in close games. This team on paper is primed for a deep run in the postseason.
