Giglio: 5 things on Phillies' signing of OF Max Kepler
Joe Giglio spoke about the Philadelphia Phillies' signing of 31-year-old outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal worth $10 million.
"I want to try to make sense of this because I'll be honest, my initial thought is—this confusing," Giglio said on his WIP Daily podcast.
The player
"I've always liked Max Kepler, I think Max Kepler has been largely a solid MLB player. He finished in 2019 with MVP votes, top 20, that was his career year...He's a pretty good baseball player, he's had a nice career...Some similarities to Jordan Romano, the relief pitcher the Phillies signed.
Defense
"I would say he's one of the best right fielders defensively in baseball and he's been that for awhile...I like his defensive profile a lot and I think he's a solid, above average player coming off a down year."
Chase rate
"From 2019 to 2023, he ranked 38th out of 202 players at chase rate at 25.2%. That's great. Last year that number jumped over 30%...If last year was a sign, and this happens, where a player starts to age they start to guess."
The fit
"The fit is interesting because it's a left-handed hitter who is a right fielder...I think it makes sense if you're going to pay Kepler and you're going to play him to move Castellanos to left."
Reality: Pause year
"The reality that I'm starting to feel here is that the Phillies is tapped out of money, that they don't want to give out more long-term contracts. The tax rate is significant when you get this high and I think they're going to mitigate how far they go over it.
"I question Dave Dombrowski's view of the league right now...As I try to make sense of their plan and what their plan is, it feels like the Phillies are trying to thread a needle that is very hard to thread and it feels like they are preparing us for a pause year.
"The Phillies have over $110 million coming off the books after this season...The Phillies have a chance, monetarily, to reset their books for the second half of the decade...If they're right about about Painter and their right about Miller and their right about Crawford, they're going to have three huge pieces on dirt cheap deals for the second half of this decade."
