We're in Week 6 and somehow it feels like the 49ers' season is on the line. But at 2-3 through the easiest part of their schedule on paper, and 0-2 in the division, a Thursday night loss would make things awfully bleak for San Francisco.
Here are three questions heading into a pivotal matchup in Seattle.
How does Brock Purdy fare versus Mike Macdonald?
It felt like part of the reason the Seahawks hired Macdonald was the Baltimore Ravens' dominating, 33-19 win over the 49ers last Christmas. Brock Purdy has been itching for the chance to make right on that four-interception performance, a couple of which were poor luck, and one of which was terrible on Purdy's part.
Devon Witherspoon is not Kyle Hamilton, but he's not far off. They're different players but who are similar in their dynamism. Witherspoon, who mostly plays out of the slot, can be shifted around the field at will, and used in a variety of ways much like Hamilton. He punches way above his weight as a tackler.
The Seahawks are without starting corner Riq Woolen, and their other starting corner, Tre Brown, is coming off his worst game of the season against Darius Slayton, who slant routed him into oblivion.
They also had to place defensive end Uchenna Nwosu on injured reserve, are without rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy, and will have a game-time decision on starting (and very capable) free safety Julian Love.
It's nowhere near the personnel the Ravens had last year, but the Cardinals have a dreadful defense roster, and Jonathan Gannon out-schemed San Francisco. Is Macdonald able to stifle Purdy again with some of his exotic blitzes?
They'll sometimes stack three players on either side of the center (six total players split into groups of three) and drop one side into coverage, then blitz on the stacked side with a defensive back like Witherspoon. It's a four versus five, but the offensive line has to communicate and pick up that overload. Purdy has to rapidly diagnose the blitz, then attack it appropriately. After arguably his worst game of the season Sunday, we'll see if he and the offensive line are up to the task.
Back to the old "Shanahan offense"?
As much as the 49ers might need some tactical adjustments — especially in the red zone — a short week usually lends itself towards simplicity. And the simplest approach for both teams? Running the ball.
For the 49ers, who threw the ball seven of their first eight plays of the game last Sunday, is it time to go back to their roots? Running the ball and running play-action passes off of it?
An interesting stat to consider: Brock Purdy is 29th in the NFL in play-action rate at 17.8 percent. He was at 22.5 percent last year. Remember when the 49ers' and the "Shanahan offense" was typified by play-action?
Back in 2019, Jimmy Garoppolo was running play-action at the third-highest rate in the league at 31.7 percent, with Jared Goff right above him. This is not an argument for the 49ers to return to that level.
It was a stretch run, outside zone-heavy offense with play-action off of it.
But this is a fundamentally different offense. The 49ers are operating out of the shotgun more than ever. Purdy likes to see the field in front of him, and with the weapons the 49ers have... or... had, that worked. But Deebo Samuel can't beat man coverage. Jordan Mason is a monumentally worse receiving back than Christian McCaffrey (most running backs are). Jauan Jennings is fantastic, but he is not a separator.
Teams are frequently throwing man coverage at the 49ers and helping against Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Brock Purdy said he expects man coverage to be a trend from defenses this season. Those easy zone-beater chunk plays aren't there.
Meanwhile, on those limited play-action opportunities, Purdy leads all quarterbacks in passer rating. He has a league-leading 130.2 passer rating on play-action attempts. He has an 87.7 passer rating on non-play-action attempts, which is 19th out 36 quarterbacks.
To go even more galaxy-brained in this direction, the 49ers promoted tight end Brayden Willis to the active roster while placing Talanoa Hufanga on injured reserve. That could (keyword: could) be an indicator that the 49ers want an extra tight end in case they have a run-heavy game plan. It could also just mean they want an extra tight end in general. But they opened the season going heavy on two tight end sets with George Kittle and Eric Saubert. They went physical, simple. Would it be a shocker if they went back to that?
Does Seattle commit to the run, and do the 49ers have answers?
As far as the 49ers' defense is concerned, there will be a steady dose of Kenneth Walker on the other end. Walker got just five carries in the 29-23 loss to the Giants, but Nick Bosa said Tuesday, he expects Seattle to run with him a lot against the 49ers.
The 49ers defense will be without Jordan Elliott after losing Yetur Gross-Matos and Javon Hargrave. It will be a heavy task for the just-returned Kalia Davis, and one of Evan Anderson and/or T.Y. McGill on a likely practice squad call-up. Elliott is a negative run defender, but his size is helpful.
Both Walker and Zach Charbonnet are physical runners, and will be a tall task for the 49ers to defend against.
Beyond that, the Seahawks have one of the best receiving trios in the league in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Geno Smith has been playing arguably the best ball of his career.
That's going to be a monumental task especially for the 49ers' young safeties. Ji'Ayir Brown has underwhelmed. Malik Mustapha is an unknown. They will have to communicate well and avoid miscommunications. So, too, will Charvarius Ward, who's had a very poor season, and Deommodore Lenoir. Those two had two miscommunications last week that gave the Cardinals free first downs. Defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen admitted as much.
This is a game that will test the 49ers' ability to maintain their gap integrity up front, tackle and communicate well. That sounds simple, but they struggled to do it last week.
For more 49ers content, follow Jake on Twitter/X. Read his exclusive feature profile on Fred Warner below.
