The 49ers’ first preseason game is in the books. What did we learn? A few things, perhaps. Or, we only reinforced what we already thought. Such is life. In any case, here’s a 53-man roster prediction.
Quarterback
In (3): Brock Purdy, Brandon Allen, Josh Dobbs
Out (1): Tanner Mordecai
Confidence in prediction: 50 percent
The 49ers love to keep three quarterbacks. They guaranteed Josh Dobbs all of his $2.35 million and felt good about Brandon Allen, who played well Saturday. Keeping just two quarterbacks would give them a lot more flexibility, and might
Backfield
In (5): Kyle Juszczyk, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Cody Schrader
Out (3): Matt Breida, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Patrick Taylor
IR (1): Isaac Guerendo
Confidence in prediction: 60 percent
Cody Schrader has been impressive all camp. He was the SEC’s leading rusher last season. Regardless of poor measurables, he continues to pass the eye test, and I find it hard for the 49ers to subject him to waivers. He has earned a roster spot. They can get Matt Breida to the practice squad given how late he was available.
Tight end
In (3): George Kittle, Brayden Willis, Eric Saubert
Out (3): Cam Latu, Jake Tonges, Mason Pline
Confidence in prediction: 55 percent
With the Ross Dwelley and Charlie Woerner era over, the 49ers had to figure out what on earth to do in their tight end room. Brayden Willis has shown he has a little bit of juice as a receiver, less so as a blocker. Saubert is a pretty impressive blocker, and has shown well as a receiver in camp. Cam Latu just hasn’t shown much to earn a roster spot. Jake Tonges has probably been the fourth-most impressive tight end in the group. Mason Pline is a practice squad project.
Wide receiver
In (6): Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Jacob Cowing, Chris Conley
Out (5): Trent Taylor, Ronnie Bell, Tay Martin, Frank Darby, Jontre Kirkland
Confidence in prediction: 55 percent
The first five guys on this list feel like locks. The question, to me, is whether the 49ers go with Chris Conley, Trent Taylor or Ronnie Bell as their sixth wide receiver. My gut tells me that they might want Taylor as their sixth at the start of the season to return punts, but my heart is telling me that Chris Conley is the only wide receiver out of that trio they really trust if Aiyuk is rusty and/or Ricky Pearsall isn't ready to go. They also guaranteed Conley $460,000 and guaranteed Taylor nothing. I expect it to be Conley, with Taylor on the practice squad and bumped up to return punts at the start of the season. Ronnie Bell has shown well at times but isn’t reliable nor explosive enough to warrant a spot in my view.
Offensive line
In (10): Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Dominick Puni, Spencer Burford, Colton McKivitz, Jaylon Moore, Jarrett Kingston, Jon Feliciano
Out (8): Nick Zakelj, Drake Nugent, Sebastian Gutierrez, Chris Hubbard, Lewis Kidd, Brandon Parker, Isaac Alarcon
Confidence in prediction: 10 percent
I have a sneaking suspicion the 49ers will keep Nick Zakelj as their backup center, which is a spot I believe would be a waste. Keeping Feliciano as that backup center option would make more sense in my view, with Zakelj struggling year after year. He looked okay in the first preseason game, but was dominated in practice. I also suspect they believe in Jarrett Kingston’s upside, but wouldn’t be stunned if he was left off.
Defensive line
In (9): Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, Maliek Collins, Kalia Davis, Kevin Givens, Jordan Elliott, Robert Beal Jr., Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos
Out (7): T.Y. McGill, Alex Barrett, Shakel Brown, Evan Anderson, Sam Okuayinonu, Jonathan Garvin
PUP - out for the year (1): Drake Jackson
Confidence in prediction: 75 percent
This is the weakest defensive line group the 49ers have had in a while. I do not trust their depth whatsoever. The best of Leonard Floyd is behind him. Yetur Gross-Matos is a major question mark. Robert Beal Jr. hasn’t proved much. They don’t have a single other edge player that they can even theoretically keep on the roster. They probably need to add another edge rusher.
At defensive tackle, Hargrave, Collins, and even Elliott are probably locks. After T.Y. McGill’s rough day and Kalia Davis’ playmaking, Davis and Kevin Givens feel like the other two to keep.
Linebackers
In (5): Fred Warner, De’Vondre Campbell, Jalen Graham, Dee Winters, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
Out (4): Curtis Robinson, Tatum Bethune, Ezekiel Turner
Confidence in prediction: 20 percent
Warner, Campbell and Dee Winters are locks. Jalen Graham has too much athleticism and size to keep off the roster. Then it’s a question of special teams and trust, and this teams really trusts Flannigan Fowles on special teams. He just hasn’t been healthy, which partially explains the low confidence in this prediction.
Curtis Robinson was snuck on the roster a couple years ago, too, and has some nice flashes, but he doesn’t look capable as an inside linebacker. Turner is a special teams option, and was brought in for that purpose, so he wouldn’t be a surprise. They may have also seen something in Bethune worth keeping, so any one of these five feels possible. Keeping six seems like overkill.
Corners
In (6): Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Isaac Yiadom, Renardo Green, Rock Ya-Sin, Darrell Luter Jr.
Out (2): Chase Lucas, Samuel Womack
IR (1): Ambry Thomas
Confidence in prediction: 70 percent
This is somehow the deepest position on the roster, which warrants keeping six. The first four guys on the list are locks. Yiadom and Green will still need to battle for that second outside corner spot, with both showing well there. The 49ers also love Darrell Luter Jr., and Rock Ya-Sin is far too talented and experienced to rationally keep off the roster if healthy. They could, however, opt to keep Chase Lucas or Samuel Womack for special teams, but that would maybe be a misjudgment of talent. Ambry Thomas looked poor before breaking his forearm Saturday night.
Safeties
In (3): Ji’Ayir Brown, George Odum, Malik Mustapha
Out (3): Tracy Walker, Jaylen Mahoney, Tayler Hawkins
PUP (1): Talanoa Hufanga
Confidence in prediction: 80 percent
This is an easy way to steal a roster spot for the 49ers until Hufanga comes back. They signed Tracy Walker, but he didn’t immediately show as someone worth keeping on the roster. The 49ers can bump one of these guys from the practice squad as an extra safety, or might not need to if they play a bunch of single high.
Special teams
In (3): Taybor Pepper, Mitch Wishnowsky, Jake Moody
Out (1): Pressley Harvin
Confidence in prediction: 99 percent
This one percent chance is that Wishnowsky’s injury lingers and that the 49ers were so wowed by Harvin that he steals the spot. That seems wildly unlikely.