It’s the Super Bowl rematch you’ve all been waiting for. Waiting for, dreading, same thing. The importance of this game cannot be understated for the 49ers.
Win, and you’re 4-3 facing the worst version of the Dallas Cowboys in years, before a bye. You’ve tossed that monkey off your back of being unable to beat Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and Chris Jones and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo.
Lose, and the best you can be at the bye is 4-4. But heavier is the doubt that could sink in. Is this team capable of ever beating Mahomes? Could they do it with Christian McCaffrey back? Nothing but questions.
Trent Williams’ answer serves as the 49ers’ leading perspective.
“When you think about the reality of it, we can beat them by 100, we’re not popping champagne, confetti’s not gonna fall,” Williams said. “So it can never be a payback situation, so why even carry that grudge?”
There are endless questions heading into this game. The only one that matters is whether the 49ers can win it.
So… can they? Will they?
My guy feeling is that the 49ers will not win. That’s not an opinion happened upon lightly, especially after predicting the 49ers to win in both of these team’s Super Bowl matchups.
What you have is two rosters constructed in fundamentally inverse fashions, and that probably favors Kansas City.
Spine versus showtime
These two trenches are built as near polar opposites. Kansas City has the best interior offensive line in the business in Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey (who was selected after Aaron Banks) and Trey Smith. Their tackles, in Wanya Morris on the left, and Jawaan Taylor on the right, are bad. Holding gets called much more in the regular season, but we’ll see what they get away with.
Kansas City is also built with beef on the interior of their defensive line. It’s Chris Jones followed by some monumental forces in Tershawn Wharton and Mike Pennel. Their edges, led by George Karlaftis, are all hefty, too.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is built around Trent Williams on offense. Colton McKivitz has been quietly good this season. The interior has been bad. Dominick Puni has been a bright spot, but offensive line coach Chris Foerster intimated that things are getting harder on him as teams have more tape to scout. Aaron Banks and Jake Brendel have alternated having very poor games.
The 49ers interior had a hard time with the Arizona Cardinals’ beefy front and this could be another challenge. That’s just personnel, too. It excludes the Steve Spagnuolo factor.
That Chiefs defense allows the fifth-fewest rush yards per game at 88.4, and the third-fewest 10-plus-yard runs at 10 on the season. They are sound, and tackle well.
On the defensive line, it’s led by Nick Bosa. Maliek Collins suddenly has a knee injury, and Kevin Givens missed Thursday’s practice with a groin issue. Jordan Elliott, who is a very poor run defender, is coming off a knee injury, too. A lot, suddenly, rides on Kalia Davis and maybe another practice squad activation for Evan Anderson.
Do the 49ers have answers for Spags?
… in man coverage
Spags. Steve Spagnuolo might be as much of a boogeyman for the 49ers as Patrick Mahomes. Teams have ripped off the Chiefs’ gameplan against the 49ers and thrown them a heavy dose of man coverage, of which they have struggled to answer without Christian McCaffrey.
Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle can beat man coverage. Jauan Jennings gets enough to make contested catches and wins on occasion. Deebo Samuel struggles massively to beat man coverage. Jordan Mason is not a receiving back, nor is he capable of challenging man coverage.
That has presented a fundamental problem, and in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs threw Trent McDuffie at Samuel, the focal point of the 49ers’ gameplan. Samuel was shut down. 11 targets for three receptions. 33 yards. He had zero catches on six targets against man coverage, the only targeted 49ers receiver to fail to reel in a catch against man coverage. That failure to recognize those struggles is as much on Shanahan as it is Samuel.
On the season… the entire season, playoffs included, Samuel caught just seven passes on 20 targets against man coverage for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. For context, Jauan Jennings caught 11 passes on 15 targets for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. Against zone? Samuel caught 53 passes on 70 targets for 783 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Chiefs run man coverage nearly 29 percent of the time, which is 11th-most in the NFL. But press-man, which specifically challenged the 49ers in the Super Bowl, is higher. Outside corner Jaylen Watson has the third-most press coverage snaps in the league. Trent McDuffie is 11th out of 266 qualified players.
That all brings us back to a point I made when Ricky Pearsall was drafted. It was the Chiefs game that likely dictated his selection. Now, with Jennings likely out, Pearsall is looking more and more like he’ll get his chance. He is a player with the elite athleticism and route-running knack to be able to beat and consistently test man coverage. Press at the top of the route has been a question mark, something which could take time to beat regularly.
The 49ers are dead last in separation in the NFL at 2.8 yards per play. Pearsall, even if he’s out there for very limited snaps, can help in that regard. Even if he comes up empty-handed, the way he snaps off on routes against tight coverage can force defenses to account differently for him than, say, Samuel.
It’s tough to place too much on him in his first game after he recovered from a gunshot would to the chest, but he’s an incredibly talented and smart player. He can have an impact from the jump. I wrote October 10 that he can be the key to unlocking this offense, and fundamentally believe that.
Pearsall coming into the lineup would be a practical boost, but it would also be a massive emotional lift. It’s going to be deafening at Levi’s Stadium when/if he comes out.
… against the blitz
The Chiefs also love to blitz. They do so 32.5 percent of the time (sixth in the NFL), and are the best pass defense in the NFL on blitzes. They have a -0.75 expected points added (EPA) on blitz plays, and allow the second-lowest separation at 2.6 yards.
On non-blitzes? They’re the second-worst pass defense in the league, with a +0.31 EPA..
I asked Trent Williams about Spagnuolo’s blitzes and he said that he tends to send pressure away from Chris Jones because he knows that teams typically plan to double-team Jones. That means free rushers, folks. It’s been a problem for the 49ers in almost every game this season.
“He definitely mixes it up,” Williams said. “He loves to go to zero [blitzes] especially at big times of the game, gotta-have-it situations, third-and-long, fourth-and-long, you can expect him to heat you up. He does a lot of blitzes away from 95 (Chris Jones) because he understands that most gameplans are to put two people on him, so it kind of leaves you shorthanded on the backside. He mixes it up. He’s one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL.”
This all means the 49ers need to have “hot” answers. Who is Brock Purdy’s “now” throw when there’s unabated pressure coming? They have been pretty underwhelming in this regard, this season.
I asked Purdy about facing Brian Flores’ Vikings defense — a defense that isn’t really comparable to any other, given how they mix up coverages from three-down fronts to sending seven without notice — given that he’ll need to have hot answers consistently. He stressed a need to know each answer and be simple.
“When it comes to the Chiefs, and how Spags is going to call the game, it's the same thing for me at quarterback,” Purdy said. “I have to get to my answers, I have to go through my progressions when I can and obviously just take what the defense is giving me and not trying to force it and do too much. And so, two different schemes, but similar mindset in terms of, I have to find my answer within every play and every coverage.”
49ers offensive upside
The upside? The 49ers have the best version of the best quarterback they have ever had leading them. If Jordan Mason goes — it sounds like he will — and the 49ers can stress the Chiefs’ weaker edges in the run game without turning the ball over, there is a very clear recipe for success. Isaac Guerendo — who got another Raheem Mostert comparison from Chris Foerster this week — could be a factor with a heavier workload, as someone who is clearly capable of generating explosives. A screen or two to get him in space with the field in front of him, isn’t a bad idea, either.
And while Kansas City does blitz heavily, they have the second-slowest get-off rate in the league at 0.91 seconds. The 49ers’ defense is first at 0.73 seconds. That quarter of a tick could be meaningful for an elite, rapid processor like Purdy.
While simplicity, a la their vintage, stretch run and play-action pass gameplan against the Seahawks, should not be eschewed, George Kittle will thrive in any situations that the 49ers spread it out. If they go five wide and Kittle is against Nick Bolton, he simply will beat him one-on-one. The tape bears that out with Bolton against far inferior tight ends. Bolton doesn’t miss tackles, but he can be beat in coverage.
On those outside runs, there is a lot to like. Teams see that tough front of Kansas City and attack their edges heavily. Teams run outside the tackles 59.3 percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. While the Chiefs limit rushing explosives, Jordan Mason is second in both yards after contact (409) and yards over expected (196). If his shoulder can hold up, he makes defenses pay for even the slightest lapses.
Mahomes and co. versus the defense
Once again, these teams could not be more different. Whereas the Chiefs have the best defense against the blitz, the 49ers have the worst. They have a +0.40 EPA on blitz plays, last in the NFL. On non-blitzes? They have the second-best pass defense in the league with a -0.29 EPA and the sixth-highest pressure rate at 35.1 percent.
And where teams run at the Chiefs’ edges, they attack the 49ers up the middle. Teams run inside at the 49ers at the third-highest rate in the NFL at 53.2 percent. With an ailing front, that could be a massive problem.
Kansas City never gets stuffed in the run game, and while they don’t run the ball that much, they are elite. They are fourth in rush EPA/play (+0.09), second in rush success rate (51.3 percent) and lead the league in not getting stuffed in the run game (just 8 percent of run plays stuffed). The best interior offensive line versus a weak defensive interior is a huge problem for the 49ers.
Then you get to Mahomes and the offense. Things haven’t really clicked there, but they don’t need to. Mahomes has become more and more willing to take checkdowns and short throws, and the Chiefs have leaned into screens and RPOs.
In that, they are not afraid to dink-and-dunk their way down the field. They gain 64.4 percent of their yards after the catch, the most in the NFL. The 49ers are dead last in YAC percentage at 32.1 percent.
I asked Nick Sorenson about that challenge. In short, the 49ers need to tackle well.
“How violent you finish and how well you tackle, I think that's the most important thing,” Sorenson said. “If they're going to check it down, are they checking it down at five? So what's happening after that? Is he getting hit? Are we punching it out? Are we hitting him with two, three guys on a compression tackle? What's the stack monster? How are our D-Line coming out? Are they hitting him, too? So what do those look like when they're throwing it is what matters. Whether it's an RPO or perimeter screen, if they're going to catch it at five and get eight or nine, that's not good.”
The 49ers will also have to do the impossible and account for Travis Kelce, one of the greatest zone-beater tight ends we've ever seen. Fred Warner has a massive task on his hands of leading this defense, especially if the 49ers keep De'Vondre Campbell next to him instead of Dee Winters.
Then they'll have to ask a lot of Ji'Ayir Brown and Malik Mustapha (coming off a sprained ankle) to be sound and avoid getting beat over the top by Xavier Worthy, or some clever Chiefs' deceit.
Prediction
If you’ve made it this far, I apologize for the barrage of stats. But they tell a story of a team in the Chiefs that is much more physical up the middle, more willing to take short plays and wear you down, and wear on you psychologically with varied blitzes and frequent man coverage. Oh, and Andy Reid is 32-6 in his career coming off a bye.
The 49ers have serious susceptibility to those things, and without Jennings, still without Christian McCaffrey, an ailing interior of the defensive line, there is quite a lot going against them.
San Francisco’s recipe to win is to be able to limit Chiefs’ explosives defensively, run the ball effectively, limit their own turnovers, and probably, for Purdy to have the greatest game of his career. Pearsall is an X-factor, too.
Oh, and so, too, is Anders Carlson, the 49ers’ third kicker who is likely to play Sunday. He helped the Packers lose to the 49ers in the playoffs last year, and has just a 43 percent touchback rate. Don’t forget about special teams, folks. Here was Kyle Shanahan’s less-than-glowing review of scooping up Carlson:
“Everything is a concern,” Shanahan said. “Especially when guys are available, if there was zero concerns, I think guys would be somewhere right now.”
Yikes.
All told, the 49ers and Chiefs are built in almost inverse ways, and that probably favors Kansas City.
Prediction:
Chiefs 27- 49ers 23
Follow Jake on Twitter/X for more 49ers content. Read his profile on Sam Okuayinonu, the rising star of the defense, below:
