Super Bowl props are one of the most robust markets in sports betting. There's a way to bet on everything, as sportsbooks will begin to flood bettors with odds ranging from the coin toss to who will have the first interception of the game. We at BetQL are going to try and find some valuable props for you, so take a look at these three we are getting down on now:
Chiefs to convert a fourth down (-115) - FanDuel
Here are some facts: In five of seven postseason games with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs have converted a fourth down.
Moreover, KC only ran 16 fourth down plays in the regular season, converting nine of them. That could also be due to the game script and the fact that they were 14-2, and ahead in most contests.
In the postseason, however, Kansas City has converted all three of their fourth down attempts, including a Chad Henne game-clinching pass to Tyreek Hill.
Andy Reid has become a more aggressive play caller, trusting Patrick Mahomes to pick up the necessary yardage when it calls for. I envision at least a few situations where it will be fourth and short and Mahomes getting his coach to let him loose to move the chains.
Once there, Mahomes' ability to run with his legs, as well as use Hill on quick patterns, makes the Chiefs a dangerous threat to pick up the first down. Every possession is critical in the Super Bowl, and I don't see Reid settling very often.
At -115, this feels short and worth a play up to -125.
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Cameron Brate over 28.5 receiving yards - PointsBet
Brate had four receptions on six targets for 34 yards against Kansas City on Thanksgiving weekend, and I expect him to figure into the gameplan on Super Bowl Sunday.
While many point to Rob Gronkowski as Tom Brady's weapon of choice at tight end, Brate has put together a solid season, clearing this total seven times in 16 games, including the postseason.
I particularly like this prop because of the matchup. The Chiefs allow the 28th most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, per Lineups.com.
I also think there is value to be had by backing Brate on this prop rather than Gronk. While Gronk took a tight end screen pass for 28 yards against the Packers, that was his only target of the game.
Gronk's receiving yard prop is set at 31.5, while Brate's is at 28.5. Gronk garnered more targets during the regular season, 77 to 34, but Brate has more looks this postseason, 16 targets to the former Patriots' 7.
The flip in targets could be a philosophical move for the Bucs offense. Gronk's blocking is superb for a tight end, and he is being used more in that role while Brate is splitting out as a receiver. Brate should get plenty of looks in this one.
Patrick Mahomes over 28.5 completions (+120) - DraftKings
This number is high, but I do think the game flow will call for Mahomes to pass a lot.
For starters, the Buccaneers' defensive line is as tough as they come and No. 1 in opponent rushing yards per carry. The Chiefs are a middle of the road rushing team, averaging just four-and-a-half yards per rush. On top of that, Kansas City only runs on 38.1% of plays, bottom third in the league. There isn't going to be many openings for the Chiefs ground game and the game script will call for dropbacks.
Second, Tampa is great defending the deep pass, fourth in opponent pass explosiveness, per SharpFootballStats. In spite of that mark, Tyreek Hill was able to go for over 200 yards in the first quarter in the teams first matchup. Don't count on Tampa Bay letting that happen again in the Super Bowl.
Tampa allows a lot of throws underneath, tied for second in the league in opponent pass completions per game, which will help this prop go over. Mahomes can let his speedy receivers work in space and complete short throws all game long.
I do expect this game to be close and for Mahomes to be forced to throw early and often, making this + money prop a bet for me. If you are able to find a lesser number for anything below -115, I'd jump on that as well.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary
