In no sport is the top draft pick more volatile than baseball. Just ask the Astros.
Houston had the pick of the litter each year from 2012-14, the reward for a stretch of losing that makes our Tigers look fierce. The club hit a homer on its first swing with Carlos Correa. And it whiffed on its next two with Mark Appel and Brady Aiken.
So it goes.
The Tigers know as well as anyone the No. 1 pick comes with no guarantees. Remember Matt Anderson? Here's hoping Casey Mize winds up on the other end of the spectrum. And here's hoping Detroit's first pick Wednesday night winds up there with him.
Will he?
YES.
Okay, but will he?
Maybe.
If recent history is any indication, the odds are about 50-50.
Of the 25 players drafted first overall from 1991-2015, 12 have become All-Stars. That includes five of the last 10. Looking for an MVP? There's been four since 1991, one since 2007.
Here's what might encourage the Tigers, on top of the fact that things look pretty bright right now for Mize. With the club deciding between Arizona State 1B Spencer Torkelson and Vanderbilt 3B/CF Austin Martin, the hit rate has been considerably higher for position players than pitchers.
The Case For Tigers To Draft Martin Over Torkelson
14 position players have gone first overall since 1991, with nine becoming All-Stars. For pitchers, it's only three of 11. And the last time a first baseman went first overall, the Marlins selected five-time All-Star Adrian Gonzalez in 2000 -- under the guidance of then-director of scouting Al Avila.
With his next pick at 1-1, maybe Avila will make it 2-for-2.
