Let this wash over you for a moment -- the NCAA Tournament starts one week from today. And then we can dive headlong into the madness that awaits. If the regular season was any indication, things will get especially zany this year.
Before we get to tip things off -- ugh -- we have to figure out where everyone's headed. Logistics and all that.
For Michigan State and Michigan, the answer is still pretty open-ended.
The Wolverines look like a three-seed at the moment, but a strong run in the Big Ten tournament could push them higher. The Spartans look like a two-seed, but a one-seed might still be in play.
Say Michigan State, with Nick Ward returning on Friday, wins the Big Ten tournament. That would almost surely add two more Quadrant 1 wins to its resume, which already boasts 11, tied for the most in the country.
And then consider this: In the KenPom era (since 2000), no team has ever won its regular season and conference tournament titles in the top-rated KenPom conference -- which the Big Ten is this year -- and not gotten a 1-seed. So it'd be pretty hard to keep the Spartans off the top line if they take care of business in Chicago.
Which brings us to our seventh installment of Ticket Bracketology, a look at how the tournament field might shake out if the season ended today. It's assembled, as always, by our college basketball expert Kyle Beery.
All 68 teams are here, including the Last 4 in and the Last 4 byes, along with the First 4 out and the Next 4 out. For a breakdown of the bubble, which is as messy as it's ever been thanks to a topsy-turvy season, read more below.
And look for the final edition of Ticket Bracketology prior to the selection show this Sunday.
Note: Teams projected to win their league's auto-bid – we're going by each conference tourney's 1-seed, or the highest remaining seed, in some cases -- have their conference in parenthesis. Teams that have secured an auto-bid are in bold, all caps.
EAST REGIONAL – Washington, D.C.
Columbia, SC
1. Virginia (ACC) vs. 16. St. Francis (PA) (NEC) / Norfolk State (MEAC)
8. UCF vs. 9. Ole Miss
San Jose, CA
4. Kansas vs. 13. LIBERTY (ASUN)
5. Marquette vs. 12. NC State/Belmont
Des Moines, IA
3. Michigan vs. 14. Old Dominion (C-USA)
6. Mississippi State vs. 11. TCU
Jacksonville, FL
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Sam Houston State (Southland)
7. Villanova (Big East) vs. 10. Minnesota
WEST REGIONAL – Anaheim, CA
Salt Lake City, UT
1. Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 16. IONA (MAAC) / Prairie View A&M (SWAC)
8. Utah State vs. 9. Iowa
Hartford, CT
4. Florida State vs. 13. Hofstra (CAA)
5. Maryland vs. 12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
Hartford, CT
3. Purdue vs. 14. Harvard (Ivy)
6. Auburn vs. 11. Temple
Tulsa, OK
2. LSU (SEC) vs. 15. Omaha (Summit)
7. Louisville vs. 10. Oklahoma
SOUTH REGIONAL – Louisville, KY
Columbia, SC
1. North Carolina vs. 16. GARDNER-WEBB (Big South)
8. Iowa State vs. 9. Washington
Salt Lake City, UT
4. Kansas State vs. 13. UC Irvine (Big West)
5. Nevada (MWC) vs. 12. Creighton/Florida
Des Moines, IA
3. Houston (AAC) vs. 14. Montana (Big Sky)
6. Buffalo (MAC) vs. 11. Ohio State
Columbus, OH
2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15. Wright State (Horizon)
7. VCU (A-10) vs. 10. Seton Hall
MIDWEST REGIONAL – Kansas City, MO
Columbus, OH
1. Kentucky vs. 16 BRADLEY (MVC)
8. Iowa State vs. 9. Syracuse
San Jose, CA
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Vermont (America East)
5. Virginia Tech vs. 12. New Mexico State (WAC)
Tulsa, OK
3. Texas Tech (Big 12) vs. 14. Georgia State (Sun Belt)
6. Cincinnati vs. 11. St. John's
Jacksonville, FL
2. Duke vs. 15. Colgate (Patriot)
7. WOFFORD (SOCON) vs. 10. Arizona State
Bubble Talk
As has been highlighted all season, this year's bubble is incredibly messy. There are tons of power conference teams with weak resumes -- only a handful of quality wins and a bunch of losses, though not necessarily bad losses. There's probably enough of these teams to form their own conference.
On the other hand, there are some quality low and mid-major teams that would have strong cases to be in the field even without winning their conference tournaments.
So the million-dollar question is: Which type of resume will the committee value more?
It's hard to say, in this new era in which we're still learning how much stock the Selection Committee will put into the new NET ranking system. Will they still give strength of schedule as much weight as they used to, even though that is already essentially a major part of the NET? The issue is, we know all the components of the NET, but we don't know the exact formula or how much weight each part receives.
That being said, it's more likely than not that the committee will still give an edge to power conference teams that play tougher schedules. We've seen it so many times before (Saint Mary's was left out last season despite posting 30 wins).
So considering that, here's a look at how the bubble looks on the Tuesday before Selection Sunday.
Last 4 byes: TCU, St. John's, Temple, Ohio State
Last 4 in: Florida, Belmont, NC State, Creighton
First 4 out: Indiana, UNC Greensboro, Texas, Clemson
Next 4 out: Alabama, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Furman
Bad news for the low-majors: the majority of these teams still have time to improve their resumes while they sit around and play the waiting game.
Good news for the mid-majors: each of these power conference teams is just about one early-round loss away from dropping out of the field.
Another thing to remember: watch out for bid stealers. The bubble can, and almost certainly will, shrink at some point this week. Some team on the outside looking in will knock off a top seed that has a strong enough resume to be in the dance, and just like that, an at-large spot will be gone.
The conferences that present the best chance of that happening are the American, Atlantic 10, MAC, Mountain West and the Pac-12. Teams like Indiana, Clemson, Alabama and Texas should be weary of the likes of Memphis, Davidson, Bowling Green and Oregon.
The bubble picture will start to come into better focus over the next week, so for now, kick back and enjoy the glory of Champ Week.
