As far as positive developments go for the Tigers this season, put this one right at the top: Shane Greene has become a legitimate trade chip.
Detroit's closer leads the AL lead in saves (20) and boasts career-best numbers across the board. He has a case to be at the All-Star Game next month and he's under team control through next season. High-end relievers are always a hot commodity at the trade deadline, and the Tigers should be able to cash in on theirs.
No, they don't need to trade Greene now, and maybe he'd just as soon stay. But his value won't ever be higher, and the Tigers, still a couple years away from contending again, have no business clinging to a closer. They've already opened talks with the Braves, according to a report last month. They're ready and eager to field more calls.
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Depending how things shake out with Matthew Boyd and Nicholas Castellanos in the leadup to the July 31 deadline -- i.e., will the Tigers want to trade the former, will they be able to trade the latter? -- Greene could be Detroit's top item for sale. What can the organization expect in return? Let's take a look at last year to get an idea.
There were several high-profile relievers moved before the 2018 trade deadline. The best of the bunch, Brad Hand, was sent from San Diego to Cleveland for one of the top prospects in baseball in catcher Francisco Mejia. But the Padres were able to package Hand with fellow reliever Adam Cimber, and Greene doesn't have the kind of track record or contract that made Hand so appealing.
Unless the Tigers want to package Greene with Boyd -- not the worst idea -- a Mejia-like return is out of the question.
Okay, let's keep thinking.
The Royals traded Kelvin Herrera to the Nationals for a trio of minor leaguers, including their No. 10 and No. 11 prospects, midway through June. Herrera, a pending free agent coming off a down year, was out to a terrific start. Kansas City moved when it had the chance. If the Tigers are looking for a barrel of prospects for Greene, this kind of haul feels like a good place to start.
This one might be better. The Orioles acquired three prospects from the Yankees, including Nos. 6 and 15, for free agent-to be Zack Britton a week before the deadline. Britton was still reestablishing himself after an Achilles injury, but his resume spoke for itself. Baltimore leveraged this into a bidding war to help bolster a thin farm system. The Tigers could orchestrate something similar with Greene.
No, Greene isn't a proven commodity like Herrera or Britton. He hasn't been tested in truly tense moments. His numbers prior to this year are decidedly average. But his value is boosted by the extra year of team control, plus the idea that he's just now coming into his own. Surely the Tigers will negotiate with that in mind.
Four days before the deadline last year, the Twins sent the unheralded Ryan Pressly to the Astros for Houston's Nos. 10 and 15 prospects. Pressly was in the midst of a good-not-great season, but he had strong peripheral numbers and was under team control through 2019. So the Twins cashed in. (Pressly, meanwhile, has since turned into one of the best relievers in the game.)
On deadline day, the Rangers dealt Keone Kela to the Pirates -- who were finally deciding to go for it -- for Pittsburgh's No. 7 prospect and, later, its No. 16 prospect. Kela was mostly unknown prior to last season. But he had 24 saves in 26 chances in his first year as Rangers closer, while his contract kept him under team control through 2020. This type of deal would seem like fair value for Greene.
So here's what we (think we) know. For as great as he's been this year, Greene isn't going to net the Tigers a truly top-tier prospect on his own. Along with the aforementioned relievers, Alex Colome, Jeurys Familia, Roberto Osuna, Joakim Soria and Seunghwan Oh were on the move last season. That's six current or former All-Stars, all told. Only one of them brought back a top-100 prospect.
Shane Greene is not Brad Hand -- and Hand, again, was part of a package deal.
So maybe the Tigers should take a cue from the Padres and sell Greene with Boyd. They'll reportedly need to be "overwhelmed" to part ways with Boyd, and Greene could be the piece that pushes an offer over the top. If a legitimate top-50 prospect is on the table, particularly one who can swing the bat, they'll have to consider pulling the trigger.
If they'd rather shop the two separately, Greene is likely worth a couple mid-to-upper tier prospects. The most exciting proposition? No, but let's keep things in perspective. The Tigers aren't dealing Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman a la the Yankees in 2016. And Greene is far from the only reliever on the market.
That said, Greene will have his fair share of suitors. Here are five that stand out, plus some prospects the Tigers might like. Because they won't be drawing from the cream of the crop, expect Al Avila and Co. to put a premium on players making strong impressions in 2019.
Red Sox
Boston let Craig Kimbrel walk in the offseason, and its bullpen has been reeling since. 11 blown saves and several more late-game meltdowns. It's the main reason the defending champs are eight games back in the AL East.
GM Dave Dombrowsi knows Greene well, having traded for him in 2014 when he was GM of the Tigers. Boston's prospect pool is thin -- not a single player ranked among the top 100, per MLB Pipeline -- but could the Tigers be interested in, say, Bobby Dalbec? The third baseman has 14 homers and an .889 OPS this season in Double-A.
Rangers
A year after trading Kela, the Rangers are trying to fill the void. They're in the thick of the wild card race, despite a bullpen that has struggled in high-leverage spots. A late-inning reliever is reportedly on their radar.
Like the Red Sox, the Rangers' farm system isn't filled with gems. But there are things to like in Leody Taveres, a terrific center fielder hitting the ball well in High-A, and Joe Palumbo, a potential mid-rotation southpaw racking up strikeouts in Double-A.
Braves
Tied with the Phillies atop the NL East, Atlanta has been in need of bullpen help all season. Its 12 blown saves are the most among division leaders. There's a reason the Braves reportedly called about Greene nearly a month ago.
Okay, now we're talking. Atlanta's farm system is stocked. Could the Braves' depth allow the Tigers to pry away a top prospect? Outfielder Drew Waters would be an outright steal. Pitchers Kyle Muller and Kolby Allard, a pair of former high draft picks, are much more realistic. Muller is having an especially strong year in Double-A.
Dodgers
Outside of Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers bullpen has floundered this season. It's been especially bad in big spots. Gunning for that elusive World Series, the Dodgers figure to be aggressive on the trade market.
They have the farm system to make a splash or two. Will Smith, anyone? The strong defensive catcher, who can also play in the infield, has a .949 OPS this season in Triple-A. Granted, that'd be quite the ask. Power-hitting outfielder D.J. Peters is more reasonable.
Phillies
Philadelphia's bullpen hasn't been especially bad this season, but the club is reportedly looking for reinforcements. And with the Braves sniffing around on Greene, expect their NL East rivals to do the same.
A flow of prospects to the majors has turned the Phillies' pipeline pretty dry. Is there still value to be found in 2016 first overall pick Mickey Moniac, who's trying to find himself in Double-A? There's certainly appeal in the tremendous raw power of Jhailyn Ortiz, though he's off to a slow start in High-A.
