As much as any team in the NFL, the Lions will dictate the 2020 draft. Their decision with the third overall pick -- namely, will they trade down? -- could shape how the rest of the first round plays out.
If Detroit trades down to, say, the Chargers' pick at No. 6 and LA takes Tua Tagovailoa, what does that mean for the QB-needy Dolphins at No. 5? What about the Jaguars at No. 9, and the Raiders at No. 12? And what will that mean for the middle of the first round, or the early part of the second, when the Lions figure to gain another pick?
If recent history is any indication, offense might be the better option. Of the past 10 Pro Bowlers selected at No. 3, just three have been defensive players. That goes back to the year 2000, when the Redskins took six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Chris Samuels. The explanation for this split? Randomness, pretty much.
Here's what else recent history tells us about the third overall pick.
Of the nine defensive players taken since 2000, eight have played on the D-line. Two of them became All-Pros in DT's Gerald McCoy (Bucs, 2010) and Marcell Dareus (Bills, 2011). DE Joey Bosa (Chargers, 2016) might soon make it three. The book is still out on DT Quinnen Williams (Jets, 2019). And that's about it for elite defensive talent.
The tally to date: 10 Pro-Bowl selections, two All-Pro selections.
Of the 11 offensive players taken since 2000, nine have played skill positions. The safest among them has been wide receiver, where Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Braylon Edwards went in consecutive drafts from 2003-05. In all, this group has produced seven Pro-Bowlers and four All-Pros.
The tally to date: 41 Pro-Bowl selections, 10 All-Pro selections.
So half of the past 20 players selected at No. 3 have since gone to the Pro Bowl, while six have become All-Pros. Those are the numbers that should mostly concern the Lions, who need more high-end talent however they can get it.
Here's a look at each pick since 2000, with Pro Bowlers in bold.
2001: Gerard Warren, DT, Browns. 11 seasons (8 as starter)
2002: Joey Harrington, QB, Lions. 6 seasons (6 as starter)
2009: Tyson Jackson, DE, Chiefs. 8 seasons (6 as starter)
2012: Trent Richardson, RB, Browns. 3 seasons (3 as starter)
2013: Dion Jordan, DE, Miami Dolphins. 7 seasons (0 as starter)
2014: Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars. 6 seasons, (5 as starter)
2015: Dante Fowler, OLB, Jaguars. 5 seasons, (1 as starter)
2017: Solomon Thomas, DE, 49ers. 3 seasons (2 as starter)
2018: Sam Darnold, QB, Jets. 2 seasons (2 as starter)
2019: Quinnen Williams, DT, Jets. 1 season (1 as starter)