Spencer Torkelson projects as a two-dimensional player.
The Arizona State first baseman sure can hit - especially with power.
It's that power which is so captivating, and has, above all else, made Torkelson the prohibitive favorite to be selected first overall by the Tigers in tonight's MLB Draft.
While MLB's shift to advanced analytics and technology - including the Tigers finally catching up - would suggest the need for a more multi-dimensional player such as Vanderbilt's Austin Martin, there are current comparable first basemen in MLB that suggest Torkelson, indeed, fits at first overall.
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Pete Alonso of the Mets and the Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt, both right-handed hitters, come to mind first.
Alonso hit 53 home runs as a rookie last season. He is a considerably below-average fielder, but still managed to post a 5.0 WAR in 2019, which tied for 38th among all MLB players.
Goldschmidt has been a plus runner, and a slightly minus fielder metrically, despite plenty of highlight reel tape and three Gold Glove Awards suggesting otherwise. He didn't have his best season in '19, yet posted a 2.4 WAR and placed Top 20 in MVP voting. Goldschmidt had been above 6.0 WAR the previous four seasons, including a spectacular 8.3 in 2015.
The problem with comparing athletes is there are no exact clones, and certainly there are differences between these three.
Alonso is a massive 6-foot-3, 245-pounder. Torkelson is 6-foot-1, 215 pounds.
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Goldschmidt is also taller, listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, but like most players appears to have gotten bigger as he's gotten older.
That's not necessarily a bad thing. Torkelson is strong and stout and has a beautiful compact swing.
He has a wide stance and short stride. His setup is not as exaggerated as Hall of Fame first baseman Jeff Bagwell's back in the day, but his finish is comparable. He is of similar size and projects as a similar athlete. Bagwell was an adequate fielder and base runner given his off-the-chart hit and power tools.
A difference is where the above-mentioned players were drafted. Alonso was a second-round selection, 64th overall in 2016 out of a high-profile college program, the University of Florida. In a re-draft, he'd likely go first overall.
Steven Strasburg (first overall) and Mike Trout (29th overall) were taken in the first round in 2009, the year Goldschmidt was selected in the eighth round by the Diamondbacks (246th overall out of Texas State). Yet, Goldschmidt certainly would be taken in the Top 5 in a re-draft, maybe second after Trout.
Bagwell was a fourth-rounder out of high school in 1989.
Bagwell was one of three Hall of Famer first basemen selected in the '89 draft. The others: Frank Thomas (seventh overall in the first round) and Jim Thome (13th round, played third base early in his career). Those three players likely would go in the Top 3 in a re-draft, although 11th rounder Trevor Hoffman, the closer, is also in the Hall of Fame.
Conversely, there are only three first overall selections currently in the Hall of Fame - Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones and Harold Baines.
The one first baseman taken first overall, Adrian Gonzalez, was an excellent MLB player for 15 years. He was drafted first overall by the Marlins when Tigers' general manager Al Avila was their scouting director in 2000.
So there are tangible examples why Torkelson at first overall might very well be the ideal selection for the Tigers.
I, truthfully, would take Martin, but Torkelson would be anything but an outlier pick simply because of his position.
It's splitting hairs between two excellent, albeit different, options.
