With the first pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, the Detroit Tigers select: Spencer Torkelson.
That's been the assumption for a quite a while now, and it remains the belief heading into Round 1 Wednesday night. As MLB insider Keith Law told the Jamie and Stoney Show Monday morning, "I think it's about an 80 percent chance they take Torkelson at this point."
And they wouldn't be wrong to do so. Torkelson is widely considered the best college bat in the draft, and he happens to play a position where the Tigers have a long-term need: first base. He mashed 48 homers over his first two seasons at Arizona State. It wouldn't be a total surprise to see him mash a couple this season in Detroit.
But ...
"The remaining 20 percent could be Austin Martin," said Law.
And if Law were the one calling the shots for the Tigers, he'd go with the five-tool athlete from Vanderbilt.
"Personally, I would take Martin. I have seen both of those players. I think Martin has more upside. Definitely is going to play a more difficult defensive position. I think he's going to end up hitting for a higher average and a higher on base percentage over time," Law said.
Martin, who hit .410 with a .503 OBP last season, is a third baseman by trade. He can also play shortstop and center field, and he can play them well. He was putting up more gaudy numbers this year -- 1.378 OPS through 17 games -- before the season was cut short.
Torkelson, on the other hand, is mostly just a bat. A mighty bat at that -- and "probably the safer bet," said Law -- but not quite a-swing-for-the-fences pick at No. 1 overall. The Tigers, still lacking high-upside position players, are in a spot to swing away.
"I think we have a better sense of exactly what he is," Law said of Torkelson. "There's no doubt about the power, or that he's going to hit enough at least to get to that power. It's more a question of what kind of average and on base percentage he's going to post. And he's going to play first base or left field, which automatically puts a little bit of a cap on how much value you can have in the long run, which is not to say anything against him as a player.
"It's just that Martin, who plays a very good third base, could potentially play center field, is a bit of a more dynamic player, a better athlete. I'm generally a big fan of betting on more upside, especially in the first round of the draft because you have a chance to get a superstar. You really have to reach for some ceiling there. That's why personally I have Martin ranked higher. But again, I don't think Torkelson is a bad pick at all."
The tricky part for the Tigers is weighing the risk-reward in a shortened draft. In a normal year, they might be more inclined to take a chance in the first round. This year, with the draft shaved from 40 rounds to five, the safe move might be the smart one.
Either way, they're poised to add a number of premium prospects to an improving farm system.
"The bulk of the value you get from any draft class tends to come from the first three or four picks. And with the Tigers picking first, they're going to get any player they want," said Law. "They've got a great chance to end up with the best player in the draft, and they'll have the potential to get creative like they did a couple years ago and go over-slot with their second pick (Parker Meadows) and maybe get a second first-round talent.
"Riley Greene is clearly the standout of their position players, but he's probably at least two years away right now. They don't have another clear regular among position players in the system," said Law. "They have many other hitters who are going to end up playing in the big leagues, but I think it speaks a little bit to the fact that the system is top-heavy. You have a couple of guys who are clearly elite prospects, and there's a pretty big drop-off after that. Once you get outside the top eight to 10 prospects in that system, you're looking at guys who are probably big leaguers but just extra pieces.
"The best farm systems in the majors have at least 10 guys who look like they'll be major league regulars -- position players or pitchers -- whereas in the Tigers system I think you're really only looking at four, maybe five guys who have that kind of upside."
