Before jumping into this week's event, I wanted to give a shout-out to Daniel Berger and Kevin Streelman for their performances last weekend at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Hitting that Berger outright at +1400 was fun. Was a sweat all the way until the last hole. The ups and downs are what makes golf betting so exciting.
This week we shift our sights on the Genesis Invitational. The event will be hosted by Tiger Woods, but he won't be able to play due to his recent back surgery. The field is absolutely stacked, as it features the top four players in the current world ranking, and 11 of the top-15 players in the world.
The action will be taking place at the Riviera Country Club, which measures 7,340 yards for a par 71. This is a very difficult course from tee to green and experience is big when playing here. The course ranked as the 10th-most difficult tour stop last season.
Dustin Johnson comes in as the favorite to win it all at +550. DJ has had great success playing here, winning in 2017. He also has nine top-10 finishes and hasn't finished outside the top-20 since 2013.
Adam Scott took it down last year, which was the second time in his career. He comes into this week at +4000, if you think he can run it back.
Lastly, here is a fun little trend coming into this event: Each of the last three PGA TOUR winners — Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed — had missed the cut in their previous start where that previous start came in the previous week of the event. Try saying that fast three times in a row. But, it is something to keep an eye on moving forward.
As for my betting picks, nothing groundbreaking here, but aside from digging into the data, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into the event.
Genesis Invitational Details:
Dates: February 18-21
Course: Riviera Country Club, Los Angeles, California
Watch: Golf Channel/ CBS
Pick to Win
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Maybe a little recency bias here, but loved what I saw from Cantlay last weekend. If not for his putting, he would've been right there to win it all as he led the field in strokes gained.
I also love the fact that he has a ton of experience on this track. Cantlay was born in nearby Long Beach, California. He also went to college at UCLA. He's said in the past that he used to play Riviera Country Club almost once a month back in the day. This will help him correct his putting struggles from last week. If he does that, lookout.
Longshots
Over the past 10 years, there have been as many winners who started the week 30/1 or shorter as those who opened at triple-digits. Let's see if a dark horse can emerge this year.
Max Homa +7000
He's one of my favorite golfers due to this Twitter game, but I came away impressed with his real game while watching him play last weekend. Last year he went into the Genesis with three consecutive top-15 finishes and ended up with a T-5 finish at Riviera. This year, he has four top-25s in his last four starts including a T-7 finish last week.
He's striking the ball well, and comes into this event trending upwards. Definitely worth a sprinkle at these odds.
Cameron Tringale +9000
Again, going with the experience angle. Tringale, not Triangle as many referred to him last weekend, fits the profile of a guy who has had a solid track record here. Tringale has finished in the top-30 six times in nine starts. He's also played well in the recent weeks, finishing inside the top-20 at three straight events.
He showed me flashes last weekend and if he can limit his mistakes, Tringale should be hanging around the leaderboard come Sunday.
Props
Homa Top-20 +200
I stated why I will have Homa positions above. This is a little bit of a safer hedge, similar to what I did with Streelman last weekend.
Homa comes into this tournament playing some of the best golf of his career and he's returning to his hometown. At + money, I'm loving him in this spot.
As always, make sure you shop around for the best lines. Good luck and let's make some money.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
