There is definitely an element of uncertainty with the NFL Draft.
Every organization misses with picks. Predictably, the percentages drop gradually as it moves into the later rounds.
Yet, it is undeniable top teams miss less often and find more gems.
The key is identifying bonafide NFL players regardless of round or undrafted free agents.
Imagine the Lions without Amon Ra St. Brown (4th round), the Rams Puka Nacua (5th) or 49ers George Kittle (5th).
Jason Kelce was a sixth-rounder, Travis Kelce a third-rounder. Between them, they've been named first-team All Pro 10 times and selected for 16 Pro Bowls. Each has won the Super Bowl as key components.
With the 2024 NFL Draft approaching, we've seen enough first-round mock drafts to last a lifetime.
What about a little later, or a lot later. Who will be this year's version of Rams' nose Kobie Turner (3rd round), Vikings' linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. (undrafted) and Browns' right tackle Dawand Jones (4th round)?
These are five genuine possibilities:
Jarvis Brownlee, cornerback, Louisville - At 5-10, Brownlee has less than ideal height for an outside corner. Yet, he is extraordinarily tough in press coverage and has speed. He flashed despite being among a strong group of corners during Senior Bowl practices, and made an impressive interception return during the game.
Joshua Cepheus, wide receiver, UTSA - A tall (6-2) receiver with a large catch radius, Cepheus figures to be third-day selection. He will likely far outperform his draft slot. His 40-time is in the 4.6 range, but he is quick off the ball and it's often overlooked how size makes up for straight line speed. He's in the same time range as Nucua. St. Brown and Cooper Kupp coming out. His 10-yard time was very good at his pro day, and he displayed excellent stop and starts as a runner after the catch. UTSA is an excellent program, and Cepheus grew into a very productive player, topping out with 89 catches for more than a thousand yards and 10 touchdowns in '23. He is the school's all-time leading receiver.
Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan, defensive end - First thing you need to know is Kneeland runs a 4.75 40 at nearly 270 pounds. He is athletic, strong and fits multiple formations. What he is lacking is refined pass rushing technique. Unlike Kneeland's raw talent, that can be taught.
Tyrone Tracy, running back, Purdue - Tracy has tremendous upside. He ran in the 4.4s and had a 40 inch vertical at the combine. Good size at 5-11, 210. He was a wide receiver at Iowa after playing back in high school. Finally returned to the backfield full time in 2023. He not only flashed speed, but a fluid running style. Was productive in the scoring zone. Very intriguing.
Cole Bishop, safety, Utah - A big (6-2), fast, athletic and tough safety. Has decent ball skills and is a plus tackler. An excellent player, who may last until third day. Better than his rankings suggest. Ran a sub. 4.5 40 and had 39 inch vertical.
