Javier Baez started and finished this season with a flourish. The failure was everything in between, months upon months of futile trips to the plate. The Tigers signed a Silver Slugging, Gold Glove-winning shortstop to a six-year, $140 million deal and got one of the worst hitters in baseball who led the league in errors.
The season came to a merciful end on Wednesday for Baez, who, despite career-low numbers across the board, wound up leading the Tigers in hits, homers and RBI. It was that kind of year in Detroit.
"Like I said all year, we're obviously trying to have a better season and better results next year than this year," Baez told reporters Wednesday night after the Tigers lost to the Mariners to finish 30 games below .500.
Few big-leaguers did less with more opportunities this season than Baez. Without diving too deep in the muck, he had the seventh worst OPS (.671) in the majors among hitters with at least 550 plate appearances. It was bad, and often downright ugly. Baez produced 132 hits. It feels like he whiffed on twice as many pitches in the dirt.
On the bright side, he did finish strong. Over his final 30 games, starting September 1, Baez hit .293 with an .831 OPS -- almost identical to what he did in the shortened month of April. Hopes were high on Opening Day when Baez drilled a walk-off double against the AL Central-defending White Sox and sent Detroit into delirium. "It's not gonna be easy," were his memorable words that afternoon, "but it's gonna be fun."
And Baez was right: He clubbed a go-ahead eighth-inning homer to beat the Red Sox a week later and clubbed another that would have beaten the Twins a couple weeks after that if not for a Tigers meltdown in the ninth. The marquee acquisition of Detroit's offseason spending spree went into May hitting .295 with an .826 OPS.
And then it all fell apart.
From May through August, the fifth highest-paid shortstop in baseball hit .215 with a .607 OPS as the Tigers sunk back into irrelevance. The cheers turned into jeers, and then into fears of a failed investment. The harder Baez tried to reverse things, the worse they got. Better teammates might have provided some cover, but there was nowhere to hide in the worst offense in baseball. The spotlight was harsh.
Baez said he took solace in batting practice chats with other vets who had signed big deals with opposing teams. He said they all told him the same thing: "That first year was always hard." Fellow All-Star shortstop Trevor Story signed the exact same deal as Baez with the Red Sox last winter and just had the worst season of his career.
"Players try to do too much, and that's exactly what I was doing," said Baez. "I was trying to show some stuff when I needed to let it come to me instead of me going to get it."
This is literally true of Baez's approach at the plate. The 29-year-old has been and always will be a free swinger. When he's on, it's partly why he's so good. It's why he's so bad when he's not. It's not just that Baez whiffs so often. It's that he whiffs on impossible pitches to hit. Baez had so many terrible trips to the plate this year that he spawned a meme with Sister Jean by the end of the season; the 103-year-old nun struck him out.
On a slider in the dirt.
The average MLB chase rate -- how often a hitter swings at pitches out of the zone -- is about 28 percent. Baez's spiked to a career-high 43.3 percent this season, worst in the majors. The average whiff rate is about 25 percent. Baez's was 35.8 percent this season, one of the worst in the majors. Against sliders, his whiff rate was darn near 50 percent.
"I think it's all mental," said Baez. "Like I said, I was just trying to do too much. The way I hit is just different than other guys. I hit wherever I think the ball is going to land and that's what I'm going to look for. I know I gotta get the strike zone closer to me and stuff, but there are other balls that I can hit and it can help my team when they're out of the zone and I hit it hard."
This is also true. That homer Baez hit against the Red Sox was on a fastball at his shoulders. He hit another last month against the White Sox on a similarly bad pitch. As A.J. Hinch said last week, "We watch him take funny swings outside the strike zone and the homer he hit the other day in Chicago was outside the strike zone, so you gotta be careful. You take the good and bad."
"But the fact that the hasn't hit sliders this year even to the level that he has in the past is an area of concern in terms of, is he prepared for it, is he seeing it in BP, does he have the right game plan?" said Hinch.
Baez stands to benefit from a different hitting coach next season, assuming Hinch parts ways with Scott Coolbaugh. Clearly, Coolbaugh didn't get through to him. And the arrival of Scott Harris, the Tigers' sharp new leader of baseball ops who saw Baez at his best during their time together with the Cubs, might help, too. The main tenet of Harris' organizational vision is to "dominate the strike zone."
The Tigers sat down with Baez toward the end of the year to talk about the areas where he needs to improve next season. Hinch said the two-time All-Star is "very coachable" and took the meeting in stride. He's on the same page as the club cutting his checks. Of course, it takes more than talk.
"He definitely puts in the work and definitely believes in the areas in which he needs to improve," said Hinch. "But the conundrum is, you don't want to take the joy out of how Javy plays. The style that he plays with is pretty electric. I think we need to foster that continual style of play while addressing some of the areas that he struggled with."
Indeed, Baez is who he is. It's not like he channeled some inner discipline when he got hot down the stretch. His strikeout rate over his final 30 games was actually higher than it was on the season. His walk rate was lower. Asked about changing his approach in any major way next season, he said, "I think I'm going to do the same thing."
"But sometimes I see sliders and I put a target where it's going to land and that's where I'm trying to hit it, instead of reacting to it and picking pitches to hit that are really in the zone," Baez said. "I just gotta make that adjustment during the game, during at-bats and believe in what I'm planning to do against the pitcher."
The Tigers still believe in Baez, partly because they have no choice. He's signed through 2027 for about $23 million per year. They just lost 96 games with him, but they aren't winning without him. Baez's resume also warrants their belief. He is and isn't the player he was this season. Just ask Cubs fans: Baez will always be maddening to watch. That's the price of his magic, both at the plate and in the field. The Tigers just need more of El Mago in Detroit.
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