The Buffalo Bills overcame a slow start and poor weather to beat the Chicago Bears, 35-13, in a Week 16 game at Soldier Field last season.
It was the 22nd game since 2014 with an average temperature below 40 degrees and wind of at least 15 miles per hour. And with two late touchdowns from the Bills, it was just the sixth time the over (40.5) hit in those 22 games.
The 23rd game with those weather conditions will almost assuredly come this Sunday.
The early-week forecast for the Bears’ home game against the Detroit Lions is grotesque: temperatures in the mid-30s with 30-mph winds. It would be the first game in 15 years with a sub-40 temperature and 30-mph winds.
As of Tuesday’s NFL betting odds at BetMGM, the total for the Lions-Bears game is 42.
Both teams have been profitable to the over — in all games — since the start of last season; the over is a combined 33-22 in Lions’ and Bears’ games, including 2-1 in their head-to-head matchups.
Even if the forecast dramatically improves, history still favors the under:
15-mph wind, sub-40 temperature: 16-6 (.727)
15-mph, sub-45: 25-9 (.736)
10-mph, sub-40: 53-40 (.570)
10-mph, sub-45: 72-51 (.585)
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