If the first six picks of the 2021 NFL Draft are complete and the Lions are sitting at No. 7 on the clock ...
... and Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, BYU's Zach Wilson and Ohio State's Justin Fields are off the board.
Should the Lions select Trey Lance?
We have heard his name so much, but seen so little of him.
The North Dakota State quarterback played just one game this season, vs. Central Arkansas, and it wasn't even on TV, just streamed by ESPN 3. Lance turned in a less-than-stellar performance, particularly throwing the ball.
He has wheels. Watching multiple games, it's clear Lance's go-to move is simply taking off and running, which he did exceptionally well vs. FCS competition. He is outstanding tucking and running off fakes in the pistol, and executing QB draws.
To suggest Lance is raw as a passer would be an understatement. He's only played 17 games collegiately. He has never played against an FBS opponent, let alone vs. a Power 5 program.
In his last two games, the national title tilt vs. James Madison following the 2019 season, and his only outing last year, Lance passed for a total of 221 yards. Conversely, he ran for 307 yards.
The 6-foot-4, 225-pound Lance has a cannon for an arm. His release is quick and clean. He can really gun an out-route.
But touch, pocket presence, reading defenses, going through a progression of reads and consistent accuracy are question marks. He played in an old-school Wing-T offense in high school. Lance only started at QB as a senior.
He was overlooked as a QB out of high school by FBS programs, although he was reportedly offered by Minnesota as a safety.
The risk-reward factor is incredibly high on both ends.
Will Lance develop to the point he can beat defenses out of the pocket first, and pick and choose effectively when to run? Will he keep his eyes looking down the field to pass first while improvising?
Still, it's impressive Lance went through the entire 2019 season without throwing an interception.
North Dakota State is a powerhouse. It has a 38-game winning streak, and has had success against Power 5 teams, including a victory over Iowa in 2016, and multiple wins over Minnesota. The Eagles' Carson Wentz was a first-rounder from the program, Chargers' backup Easton Stick a fifth-rounder.
There have been plenty of QB's drafted in the first round with limited game experience, albeit not from an FCS program.
Lance is a tick faster, and smaller, than massive Josh Allen, but his skillset is similar. Other comparisons have been to Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick and Dak Prescott.
In other words, it's all over the place because Trey Lance presents the great unknown.
Logic dictates Lance wouldn't be nearly as ready to play early in the NFL as Lawrence, Wilson or Fields. But the ultimate payoff could be similar or better in some comparisons. Lance is that gifted, but in obvious need of being molded. There is going to be a large learning curve.
Whether to select Lance could end up being the defining moment of the 2021 draft for the new regime of the Lions.
Early on, it does seem to be trending in that direction.
