The Tigers want you to believe in their pitching, and there are reasons to do so. Thanks to a deep well of arms in Toledo, the rotation hasn't collapsed after losing Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tyler Alexander in the first month of the season.
First the Tigers turned to 24-year-old Beau Brieske; the rookie has delivered three solid starts. Then they turned to 26-year-old Alex Faedo; the rookie has delivered two solid starts. And Wednesday night, they'll turn to 24-year-old Joey Wentz. He will be the third Tigers pitcher to make his MLB debut in as many weeks.
The season has not gone as planned so far for the Tigers, the worst team in the American League through their first 30 games. But GM Al Avila believes the club's pitching depth remains an enviable asset around the majors and a bridge for the Tigers toward long-term success.
"After the game last night, A.J. and I were in his office discussing how blessed we are with our pitching," Avila said Wednesday during a luncheon hosted by the Detroit Economic Club. "We were sitting there like, there are so many clubs out there that would die right now for the pitching that we have, not only at the Major League level but the guys that are coming and the guys that have been coming. So we're set there, knock on wood. Obviously injuries can change things, but we feel we have a really good foundation for now and the future with our pitching. That's one of our strong suits."
About a year ago in the same (virtual) setting, amid an equally slow start for his team, Avila sold the same story. He said the Tigers had "one of the best starting rotations in Major League Baseball, so we feel very good about that." It wasn't all that true at the time, and it wound up being rather false: Detroit's rotation, while full of young talent, finished 15th in majors and 7th in the AL in ERA (4.17).
To fortify the rotation this winter, the Tigers signed Eduardo Rodriguez to a $77 million deal -- money he has yet to earn. And they banked on Mize, Manning and Tarik Skubal taking another step forward -- a step only Skubal has taken. In the same weekend last month, Mize went down with an elbow injury and Manning went down with a shoulder injury. Rodriguez, who was much better in his most recent outing, has a negative WAR through six starts. Entering Wednesday, Detroit's rotation ranks 20th in the majors and 11th in the AL in ERA (4.13).
Avila and the Tigers can tout their pitching depth all they want. But until it starts helping the team win games, it won't be much of an asset at all. Not unless they can can leverage it on the trade market for more hitting talent -- which shouldn't be too hard if it's so envied around baseball -- because "obviously," Avila said Wednesday, "our hitting has not been the best at this point."
No, a month into the season, the Tigers are the only team in the majors scoring fewer than 3.0 runs per game. They're averaging one homer about every 90 plate appearances. They have several regulars hitting near or below the Mendoza line. They just went 28 straight innings without scoring a run, their longest drought this century. This is the main reason they are 9-21.
"But at the same time, we have guys in the prime of their careers," said Avila. "Jeimer Candelario has been arguably our best hitter each of the last two years. Javier Baez is a World Series champion and an All-Star, we know his history, he's in the prime of his career. Jonathan Schoop, same thing. He's been one of our better hitters the last two years, he's in the prime of his career. Austin Meadows, a proven 30-home-run hitter, he's in his prime.
"There's guys that are here to win now and still have a future because they're in their primes. That, mixed with some of the young guys we have coming up … there is a foundation, a nucleus of players here at the Major Leave level and in the minors that is going to sustain us for success for a long, long time. Now, we have to get out of this hole that we're in and I know we will, and then the future will be bright."
It's fair to expect the offense to heat up. Candelario, Baez and Schoop certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt. But regression to the mean won't solve everything. The Tigers have about 100 games to make the month of September matter, and it won't if they don't win about 60 of them. That's the reality of their brutal start. If they're not constructed to play .600 baseball for the next four months, it's on Avila to change that. Or to at least try.
And if that means parting with some pitching that rival clubs would "die for," it might be worth it to keep this season alive.
