On the same stage where he was introduced as Tigers president of baseball operations last September, Scott Harris addressed the media Monday after his first season in Detroit and said, "The conversation about this organization has changed dramatically in 12 months."
Instead of fretting about the club's lack of hitters, said Harris, "we're seeing a group of young, middle-of-the-order bats emerging right before our eyes." Rather than questioning whether the organization has any legitimate MLB prospects, the Tigers are asking themselves, "are there players in Triple-A that should already be here?" And instead "of openly worrying about" the starting pitching depth, said Harris, "we are debating how and where the starters that we have here and in the minors are all going to fit in a five-man rotation."
"That is not to to say that we are as an organization where we want to be," Harris said after the Tigers posted their best record and best finish in the AL Central in seven years, fueled by an 18-10 run down the stretch. "But it is a moment in time where we can reflect on both the path and pace that we're on right now and we can appreciate some of the progress that we've made."
Now, what does it mean moving forward? The previous regime was touting similar progress -- if not so succinctly -- after the club's first season under A.J. Hinch. The Tigers went 77-85 in 2021 and spent that winter like a team on the verge of contention, then crumbled in 2022. Harris was hired to clean up the mess. The Tigers went 78-84 this year, which would have left them in last place or second to last in every other division in the majors. They happened to finish second in the rotten AL Central.
Which is partly why Hinch reiterated Monday a point that he made often this season: "I've been steadfast as the manager to be cautious on celebrating mortal victories or these feel-good stories that can distract you from getting to the next point to be a realistic threat."
To get there, the Tigers need continued growth within. The development they saw this season in the likes of Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter did, indeed, change the conversation. Suddenly, the Tigers have three hitters, 26 years old or younger, they can build around moving forward. Prospects Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy, along with September call-up Parker Meadows, will enter the chat next season.
Equally important on the pitching side was the emergence of Tarik Skubal, who looked every bit like an ace after he returned from flexor tendon surgery. The Tigers will be eyeing something similar next season when Casey Mize, health willing, retakes the mound for the first time since 2022. The bullpen had its own share of success stories, highlighted by waiver claim Tyler Holton.
When he wakes up each morning, Harris said he's heartened by the fact "that we have young talent already in the big leagues and we have more young talent coming."
"I'm really bullish on this young talent. So anything we do this offseason, we're going to have to walk the line between finding outside additions that can help us without blocking some of the young talent that may prove to be the best solutions we can find at certain positions," Harris said. "We owe it to our organization and to those individuals to give them enough runway to demonstrate that they can be solutions."
All that said, the Tigers do need external upgrades. Right now, Skubal is the one starting pitcher they can truly feel good about entering 2024. Eduardo Rodriguez will reportedly exercise the opt-out in his contract, and the rest of the Tigers' starters are either injured or unproven, or both. It's not easy to build a formidable big-league rotation. And while they found some pop this season at the plate, the Tigers still scored the third fewest runs in the majors. They have clear question marks at second base and third.
"When I think about the offseason, there aren't any shortcuts to contention," said Harris. "Recent history in this game will tell you that some organizations have either overestimated their proximity to contention or they have tried to take a shortcut to contention by spending heavily in free agency, and it hasn't worked. It hasn't launched them forward. In fact, in some cases, it has set them back."
"When I think about what we're doing here in this organization, we can spend to complement a core. We cannot spend to build a core. That's not a viable strategy in this market."
Harris declined to comment directly on the Tigers' payroll plans, but did reiterate that "we have all the resources we need to make this team better." He declared that "we are going to be active this offseason," but noted they have another month to determine "the specific positions that we're going to target." Additions are as likely to come via trade as free agency.
It's another pivotal winter for the Tigers, on the heels of their seventh straight losing season. They did make strides this summer, going 76-75 after their 2-9 start. That's not far off the pace of the division-winning Twins, who finished 87-75. The Tigers also went 35-17 in the AL Central, tied with the Braves for the best inter-division record in the bigs. But as Hinch pointed out, "That didn't get us to win the division yet."
Asked if he believes the Tigers can contend for the playoffs next season, Hinch said, "I'm not in the predictions game, but I am in the standards game. And our standards will be high enough, our expectations will be high enough once we reconvene in Lakeland."
The Tigers' playoff drought reached nine years this season, tied with the Angels for the longest in the majors. Last time we saw postseason baseball in Detroit, Miguel Cabrera was a year removed from back-to-back MVP seasons, a 31-year-old in his prime. Now he's retired. The Tigers are trending up again, in a wide-open division. To continue to climb, they'll need to continue to grow -- while filling the right gaps this winner.
"This city deserves a playoff team," said Hinch. "We're trying to build toward that."
