Paul Skenes was nasty.
A 100 mph fastball here. A 94 mph running, diving splitter there. Some incredibly high-spin sliders mixed in to make hitting against him seem like mission impossible. It made you think, as he dominated the Tigers, "Now, that's what a No.1 overall draft pick is supposed to look like."
Juxtapose Skenes with the Tigers' No. 1 overall selections, Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize.
Torkelson is hitting .209. His OPS is .619. He was 0-for-8 as the Tigers split a doubleheader with the Pirates. Of 539 MLB position players, his minus-0.8 WAR (Baseball Reference version) is 525th. Just gives you an idea how disappointing Torkelson's season has been after it appeared he emerged with 23 home runs in his final 82 games in 2023.
Sunday the Tigers took a 5-0 lead over Toronto. But Mize couldn't get out of the fifth inning. Mize came back from Tommy John surgery throwing harder than at any point since early his draft year at Auburn. Subsequently, he had some promising early starts. Yet, his ERA has sky-rocketed to 4.71, his WHIP to 1.43. In 10 starts, Mize has fanned just 34 hitters and averaged less than five innings per outing.
The Tigers have had their share of player development success stories. Kerry Carpenter was a 19th-round pick. Wenceel Perez was largely an overlooked minor leaguer. Jason Foley wasn't even drafted out of an NAIA school.
Tarik Skubal was a 10th round pick and Reese Olson an afterthought trade deadline acquisition from Milwaukee for Daniel Norris. Olson was not a highly regarded prospect in the Brewers' system as a 13rd-round pick out of his Georgia high school.
But the big dogs aren't hunting. Even Riley Greene, a fifth overall selection with obvious upside, has faded badly after a red-hot start. In that wider snapshot, where is Matt Manning, a ninth overall pick eight years ago? At least he knows where Luna Pier is after driving back and forth so often between Toledo and Detroit.
But none of the angst matches that of Torkelson and Mize. Their selections could not have been received with more enthusiasm in this town.
Remember how draft pundit Keith Law convinced many Mize was so polished, that if MLB rules allowed it, the first pick could have been traded to a contender for a chest full of top players? His splitter was rated as a plus-plus pitch. And the hype only grew as Mize dominated the lower minor leagues and threw a no-hitter in his first Double-A start.
Fast forward six years later. He has had one decent season, 2021, and undergone the Tommy John surgery some predicted for him because of the forearm tightness he experienced in college. Want one reason the Royals are better than the Tigers this season? Mize's old college rival Brady Singer has been by far the better pitcher.
Mize is 27. Could it be that he just isn't that good? It's a fair question to ask based on his performance.
There was literally nothing going on in sports, save for axe-throwing, darts and corn hole tournaments, when Torkelson was drafted 1-1 at the height of the pandemic in 2020. It made the MLB Draft, which usually ranks between the Korn Ferry Tour and Power Slap in general sports interest, suddenly a marquee event. And there was all this video, courtesy of YouTube, of Torkelson pulverizing baseballs for the Arizona State Sun Devils.
He had an excellent minor league season in 2021. Torkelson's MLB debut couldn't have been more anticipated in this town. He was widely regarded as the city's next big star.
Then reality set in. It came in the form of an MLB fastball. Other than for a couple months, Tork simply hasn't hit the hard stuff. His batting average on four-seamers in '24 is .192. It was .174 as a rookie. He hit .265 on that pitch last season when he slammed 31 home runs. You don't need the three-headed monster known as the Tigers' hitting coaches, to figure out his issue.
On top of it, Torkelson has poor fielding range, and a sub-standard throwing arm. He ranks in the bottom five percentile in both range and arm strength among MLB players, according to Baseball Savant, which is technology based and definitive.
It makes you wonder what the Tigers were thinking when they announced Torkelson as a third baseman on draft night. Can you imagine him at third? It'd be like dragging the Hal Newhouser statue out there, bronzed throwing arm and all.
He will turn 25 in August. Could it be that he just isn't that good? It's a fair question to ask based on performance.
Harsh assessment of both players? They are each solid people. Their work ethic is unquestioned. It's based purely on what is obvious about their lack of production and the causes.
There is a boom-or-bust nature to the first overall MLB pick. For every Paul Skenes, there is a Brady Aiken. For every Alley Rutschman, a Henry Davis. But look, too, at the stars that have been taken 1-1 in the MLB Draft the last two decades: Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and David Price.
The Tigers have been transparent. There was nothing earth-shattering in what president of baseball operations Scott Harris said on MLB Network this week. They want to build a core of young players and fill in around them with veteran players acquired by other organizations. It's a good plan, one proven to work that has stood the test of time.
When discussing the core, the conversation has often begun with Torkelson and Mize, though. Why? Because they were 1-1 picks? It can't be because of production. In truth, the lack of development by Torkelson and Mize is perhaps the biggest factor, save the disastrous signing of Javy Baez, holding down the Tigers.
If that doesn't change, and relatively soon, Harris would be wise to move them while they still have value.
