Expansion of franchises, divisions and playoff spots, tethered with gimmicky draft lotteries, has often made sports more about circumstance than competition.
Being in the right division at the right time sometimes means an organization doesn't have to be that good as long as it isn't that bad.
Certainly, the apparent weakened state of the NFC North has helped fuel Lions' frenzy.
And it could provide impetus for the resurgence of the Tigers.
The American League Central is dreadful. The Tigers, as incomplete as the puzzle first-year general manager Scott Harris inherited remains, are capable of not only contending, but winning the division next season.
Ridiculous? Not when you consider the Tigers are 25-15 against their AL Central rivals in 2023, including ending the season series 8-5 against the division-leading Twins.
Just the White Sox have a winning record vs. the Tigers, 4-3. But considering the direction of the franchises with six games remaining, it's certainly within the realm of possibility the Tigers win that series, too.
Spurred by the blossoming trio of Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter, the Tigers are 30-29 since losing 11-of-12 in early June
Greene and Carpenter were out for most of that skid.
Torkelson has plowed through just about every at bat to systematically adjust to MLB pitching. He has hit fastballs consistently hard, a weakness his rookie season. Now he is tearing up mistake pitches with regularity. His average exit velocity ranks 21st in MLB, and his hard-hit rate 15th, the latter just one spot behind Shohei Ohtani. His barrel and chase rates are also elite, especially for a power hitter. And it is starting to show with production. The recent home run surge by Torkelson was just a matter of time. He is on pace for 30 home runs and 89 RBI this season.
Carpenter has 25 home runs in just 382 MLB at bats. The projection for his first 162 MLB games is 36 home runs.
Greene is clearly the Tigers' MVP. His OPS is well-above .800. Greene easily has the best WAR among Tigers' position players and is just starting to scratch the surface of his power potential.
Greene will be 23 next season, Torkelson 24 and Carpenter 26.
Parker Meadows, recently called up, is exceptionally fast and projects as a plus center fielder. If he hits with authority, and he did at 23 in Triple-A, it will push Greene to his best position, right field.
Also on the cusp of MLB are Toledo infielders Justyn-Henry Malloy and Colt Keith. It's to be determined if either is solid enough defensively to man either/or second base and third base in the future, but their upside offensively is obvious.
Miguel Cabrera's contract will be off the books. The Tigers will have one of MLB's lowest payrolls, especially if Eduardo Rodriguez opts out of his contract.
The problem with that is he has been by far the Tigers' best starting pitcher.
Free agency will present the Tigers with several options to augment the rotation, but not so much the lineup.
Starting pitching is a great unknown for the Tigers at this point, and not only because of E-Rod's status.
How much can the Tigers reasonably expect from Casey Mize next season? Or Spencer Turnbull?
Tarik Skubal has big-time velocity and a bulldog mentality, but is he going to be a legitimate No.1 starter? If so, when? Matt Manning has yet to present a measure of consistency. Reese Olson has proven to be a find, and you could see 2021 first-rounder Ty Madden at some point next season. Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo are still in a one-step forward, one-step back phase.
Bullpens are always fluid. Alex Lange and Jason Foley have certainly had their moments on the backend, but the genuine find by Harris was Tyler Holton, who has a phenomenal, for a reliever, 2.6 WAR. But is that repeatable?
The Tigers' team ERA is actually up to 4.42 from 4.05 in '22.
One of the great strengths of Dave Dombrowski as Tigers' GM was a series of extraordinary value-for-value trades. It was one of the biggest failures of his successor, Al Avila.
Harris has enough organizational depth to add payroll and subsequently talent via trade more than any other avenue.
In the AL East, none of this would matter. The Tigers, frankly, would justifiably be labeled as "years away."
But in the AL Central, the future is now. Ready or not, the Tigers' division presents a primrose-lined path to the postseason.
It would be wise for Harris to take it.
