If the Tigers were a dance, they'd be the cha-cha-cha: A step forward, a step back.
Every time the Tigers reach .500 or just above, they find a lump on their collective head. It's the result of banging into their apparent ceiling. The Tigers are 33-35, and their mantra is, "But we're only three-and-a-half games out of a wild card spot."
Are the Tigers underachieving? Overachieving? Are they simply playing to their level? Is manager A.J. Hinch getting the most out of this club?
There is no Wins Above Replacement for a manager. Quantifying the job metrically is impossible. The only number that counts is wins and losses, and managers are beholden far more to their talent level than, say, NFL coaches in that regard.
It explains why Bruce Bochy, despite four World Series championships, has a career record below .500. Jim Leyland will go into the Hall of Fame this summer, though just slightly above break-even.
Hinch didn't walk into an ideal situation. The organization was in extreme rebuilding mode. It was overwhelming because of neglect of the player development system and not-so-subtle abhorrence and ignorance of analytics during the Dave Dombrowski years.
Hinch certainly did well his first season in 2021. The Tigers closed strongly, raising expectations. Despite the addition of big-money players Eduardo Rodriguez and Javy Baez, the Tigers cratered badly in '22. Last season was perceived as a positive because, after a painfully slow start, the Tigers rallied down the stretch. They began this season 18-13. They are 15-22 since.
The Tigers played a lot of sloppy baseball in May and more so far in June. Multiple-error games are becoming routine. The Tigers are 24-19 in games in which they do not make an error, 9-16 otherwise. In fairness to Hinch, the Tigers' outfield was exceptional defensively when Parker Meadows was in center, but he couldn't hit .100. Spencer Torkelson was a slugger of note the second half of 2023, but struggled to the point of a demotion to Toledo.
In retrospect, the Tigers should have signed a professional hitter after Miguel Cabrera's departure as DH. Fan sentiment was right; J.D. Martinez would have been ideal.
The idea to leave that spot open to let Hinch weave his magic with lineup flexibility has been proven a fallacy. The Tigers need a consistent threat in that spot most nights, and maybe Justyn-Henry Malloy will be the answer. But Hinch made the mistake of putting Malloy, a far below-average defender, in left field last weekend with predictably disastrous results.
The Tigers would be two games or more above .500 if they'd only played reasonably sound fundamental baseball. The clueless at bats, the suspect base running, the botched routine plays have all been harmful.
And that is a reflection on the manager. It would not be accurate to claim Hinch has gotten the most from this team. The Tigers have underachieved, failing to take advantage of often superior pitching. They are the only MLB club with a Top 10 ERA and a losing record.
Hinch has too often tried to fit square pegs into round holes. Granted, at times that's out of necessity, but it has been too much by choice. The Tigers can stay in the playoff race, but a big part of it must involve adjustments by Hinch.
There is an intangible quality the best managers possess. It's the ability to extract focus from their players, and the refusal to accept any lapses. And Hinch must put players in spots where they can excel, not require versatility defensively to the point of bordering on the absurd.
The Tigers don't have a wide margin for error. They must be unyielding game after game in intensity. That can improve, but it begins in the dugout from their manager.
