The Tigers have a credibility problem.
They haven't had a winning season since 2016 nor reached the postseason since 2014.
Ownership, fairly or unfairly, is perceived as cheap. Much of their fan base is either outspokenly frustrated or checked out. Few are genuinely optimistic.
This season, a few nice wins lately aside, has been a major disappointment.
And while there are plenty of games remaining, even if the Tigers close strongly, which is the preferred option, it will ring hollow unless somehow they legitimately claw back into the postseason race to play meaningful baseball in September.
The Tigers closed strongly in 2021 and 2023, but it proved to be misleading. When they were under some pressure early this season after a promising start, the Tigers folded like a house of cards.
But the Tigers do have a core. Their two all stars, pitcher Tarik Skubal and outfielder Riley Greene, rank ninth and 17th in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) among MLB players.
Skubal, 27, is arbitration eligible and set to become a free agent following the 2026 season. Greene isn't eligible for arbitration until following the 2026 season and free agency in 2029.
For the Tigers to rise, it'd begin by signing Skubal and Greene long range.
Tethered with rapidly improving rookie Colt Keith, who signed a long-term deal even before making his MLB debut, it would give the Tigers a nucleus under contract.
Greene and Keith as lefty bats in the middle of the lineup, along with Skubal, Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe, the latter baseball's top pitching prospect, leading the rotation, that's a good start.
It would also provide cost certainty and financial security for the players, and a defined direction for the team.
It makes more sense than shopping retail for unrestricted free agents, or constantly recycling with prospects. Of course, it involves risk, especially with a pitcher, even one as adroit as Skubal.
Skubal's agent Scott Boras has a reputation for putting his clients up for auction and bleeding out negotiation points until the bitter end.
But last off season, players represented by Boras such as Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery, were essentially left holding the bag. Montgomery reportedly fired Boras.
Skubal has not been paid anywhere near to the proportion of his performance. He was a 10th round pick with a $350,000 signing bonus, who made the MLB minimum until this
season when he signed for $2.65 million, avoiding an arbitration hearing. If he were to sign long-term this off season, say a four-year deal in the range of $140 million, the contract could be structured with a lot more upfront money than he'd acquire playing the arbitration game. No pitcher has been awarded more than $13.5 million in an arbitration case.
The Tigers would have Skubal two seasons into his free agent eligibility. It'd make sense for Skubal from the standpoint of insurance from injury, and getting ahead of a potential industry revenue dip because of baseball's flagging regional television networks. Skubal would be in his early 30s at the end of the contract and potentially in line for another big pay day. The $35 million annual value would be sixth among MLB pitchers, and seventh in overall value.
It'd be difficult to bypass.
And if Skubal were to turn down such an offer, it would be then trading him would become the obvious option.
Greene's situation is much different than Skubal's. He is only making $766,000 this season, but did receive a $6.2 million signing bonus as the fifth overall pick in the 2019 draft. He also doesn't turn 24 until late September. The urgency to lock him into a deal isn't nearly the same.
But it has become a trend to do so with top-end young position players. It's why so few quality positions players are available in free agency. For Greene, it'd mean a six- or seven-year deal in the triple digits.
These two players will provide a bigger test of the Tigers willingness to spend money than free agency ever will.
And if the organization is willing to move outside the box and into the realm of what works in MLB today.
