The Tigers open the 2024 season with their best chance of reaching the playoffs since the salad days of J.V., Max, Victor and Miggy in his prime.
They won 78 times last season, a 12-game improvement from 2022. Spencer Torkelson and Tarik Skubal had eye-opening late-season surges suggesting they've come into their own, while center fielder Parker Meadows debuted with Gold Glove-caliber defense and exceptional speed. Riley Greene (knock on wood) is healthy. The Tigers have the makings of a top-tier pitching staff.
Most of all, the Tigers play in MLB's weakest division, the American League Central, against which they compiled a 35-17 record in 2023.
But we've been here before, and recently. The Tigers won 77 games in 2021, representing a dramatic improvement from the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, spent significantly in the offseason and then promptly fell flat on their face in 2022.
The lesson learned was that if it seems too good to be true, it probably is, at least regarding this era of Tigers baseball.
Their fans are understandably skeptical. Even though the Tigers' minor league system is deeper with high-end prospects than at any time since the core of the '84 champs was formed in the late '70s, they are slow to believe it.
Tork struggled mightily before turning it around. Casey Mize was doing just fine after being pounded around by MLB hitters his debut season, but Tommy John surgery derailed him. Greene has been solid, but limited by injuries, nor has he generated the anticipated power.
Prospects, even when they graduate to MLB, require patience. Seven straight losing seasons, some of epic proportions, has become tiresome, though. The Tigers need to regain trust. The only way that will happen is by playing winning baseball. The bar is low in their division. Winning baseball, even just above .500, equals contention.
If the Tigers are going to win the AL Central, pitching must be their calling card. That means a team ERA under 4.00, Skubal continuing to dominate, a rebound for Jack Flaherty, innings eaten by Kenta Maeda and contributions from Mize. The bullpen should be solid, and there is MLB-caliber pitching talent in the minor leagues.
Jackson Jobe is the top pitching prospect in baseball based on, well, everything. If he throws like he did last year and this spring, the Tigers shouldn't waste those pitches in the minor leagues. Ty Madden doesn't get mentioned enough. He has a high-90s fastball, and good breaking balls. He should be ready to have an MLB impact this summer.
The pitching staff will be helped by what figures to be excellent outfield defense.
But Colt Keith as the everyday second baseman seems like a reach. He's big for the position, and not overly athletic. Tethered with Torkelson, whose range metrically, both mathematically and technologically, was stunningly poor in '23, the Tigers might present MLB's worst defensive right side of the infield.
Javy Baez is still the shortstop and will be for the foreseeable future. That's fine in the field, but a source of consternation every time he steps in the batter's box. Jace Jung, like Keith, should eventually add pop to Detroit's lineup at third base. But he is a huge question mark as a third baseman.
While the Tigers are promising, they are definitely flawed. Nobody is expecting miracles, just contention deep into the season and playing meaningful games.
It's not only possible, but probable.
For a change.
