Through 16 games, the Tigers have the best record and best run differential in the American League. It's only 16 games, you say. It also represents about a tenth of the season. That has to tell us something, right?
Sparky Anderson said to wait until 40 games -- a quarter of the season -- to judge a team one way or another. A.J. Hinch would prefer to avoid premature conclusions altogether. But the Tigers have raced out of the gates after sprinting into the playoffs last season, leaving you to wonder if they have simply found their stride.
They are 10-6. They have won four straight series since getting swept by the juggernaut Dodgers to open the season, and can make it five straight with another victory Tuesday (or Wednesday) over the Brewers. They have a run differential of plus-23, despite missing arguably their most valuable position player in center fielder Parker Meadows.
We knew the Tigers could pitch. But their rotation is pushing the bar higher. It turns over like a well-oiled lineup, with a reigning Cy Young winner at the top and a former first overall pick at the bottom. Tarik Skubal lowered his ERA to 2.66 in his dominant outing Monday in Milwaukee. Casey Mize checks in at 2.60. Hinch gives the ball to a dynamic arm every game.
That's why this start feels like more than a mirage. While the Tigers were one game off this pace last season at 9-7, their run differential of minus-3 -- plus a handful of narrow wins, a few of them in extras -- suggested a correction was in order. It arrived in May. The Tigers were 12 games under .500 over the next two months.
So, what can a tenth of the season tell us? Let's use last year as a barometer. Nine MLB clubs won at least 10 of their first 16 games; seven of them made the playoffs. Six of those nine also had a run differential of at least plus-20; five of them made the playoffs.
Expanding the view to the last five full seasons, 17 clubs won at least 10 of their first 16 games while accruing a run differential of at least plus-20; 14 of them made the playoffs. In simpler terms, the Tigers' start bodes really well for a return to October.
And it hasn't just been the arms. The Tigers boast a top-10 offense in hits, homers and runs. Their biggest bat so far belongs to arguably one of the biggest X-factors in the majors this year. Spencer Torkelson is tied with Aaron Judge for the AL lead in extra-base hits. The boost he can give this team is hard to overstate. Every time he barrels a ball, which he's doing at the highest rate of his career, it feels like a bonus.
Kerry Carpenter is feeling more and more like a given. He's tied with Torkelson and one off the AL lead with five homers, and two of them have notably come against lefties. Dillon Dingler is swinging it like he did in Triple-A last season as he lays claim to the starting job at catcher in the absence of Jake Rogers. And while Dingler is bound to cool off, Riley Greene is bound to heat up. So is Colt Keith. Detroit's two purest hitters have yet to get going, and the Tigers are still scoring five runs per game.
Again, 16 games. But even the odds are putting stock in the Tigers' start. Per Fan Graphs, the Tigers had a 46 percent chance to make the playoffs at the start of the season, and about a 25 percent chance to win the division. Now they're up to 70 percent to make the playoffs, and better than 50 percent to win the division. Helps that the Twins, the only AL Central team with better opening odds than the Tigers, have started 5-12.
As Hinch likes to say, everything matters. Right now, the Tigers are doing a lot of things well, with reinforcements on the way in Meadows and Matt Vierling among other useful pieces on the injured list. They have "pitched our ass off," as Skubal put it after he smothered the Yankees last week, one arm after the next "attacking the strike zone." As long as that continues, the Tigers have every chance to keep this up.
