If you've never pitched in early-season games in Detroit, "that will wake you up a little bit," says Tarik Skubal. And ideally, it will open the Tigers' eyes to what's to come.
Because "after 162, when you want to play the important ones, it's going to be in cold weather, too," Skubal said Thursday on 97.1 The Ticket. "In October, when games really do matter."
The Tigers haven't played those kind of games in nine years, tied for the longest playoff drought in baseball. They'd like to change that this season, and they might have the team to do it. They certainly play in the right division.
"I think our division is wide open," said Skubal.
The Tigers' competitive window might be opening with it. The Twins won the AL Central last season with a record of 87-75, worst among MLB's six division champs. Worst, in fact, among all seven AL playoff teams. The Tigers finished second and went 35-17 against their Central foes, tied with the Braves for the best divisional record in the majors. And they went 19-10 down the stretch, aided by Skubal's dominant finish for which he was named AL Pitcher of the Month in September.
A.J. Hinch and Scott Harris don't want to talk about it. Not yet. The Tigers' president of baseball operations echoed the manager Wednesday in saying, "We haven't earned the right to talk about division titles or playoff berths." They're aware of the "narratives that are out there," Harris said as the Tigers kicked off spring training in Lakeland, "but we gotta focus on what we're doing right in front of us."
"We gotta get a lot better," he said. "We haven't done anything yet in this organization."
Skubal hears them. He gets it. And "I totally agree with what they're saying, you can't get caught up in that. ... You gotta establish winning today's game and then take it from there."
"But I'm excited," he said. "I think our division is pretty wide open and it's ours for the taking if we want it."
There are two ways to look at the 2024 Tigers, who will have, as Harris said, "one of the youngest position playing groups in all of baseball:" lacking experience or bursting with potential. A green lineup will have inevitable lulls, but it could also spark a long-dormant offense. The Tigers scored the third fewest runs in the majors last season and have scored the fewest over the last five seasons.
But they do have talent. Spencer Torkelson smacked 31 homers last season after a summer-long power surge, Kerry Carpenter drilled 20 and Riley Greene has all the tools to be an offensive star if he can just stay on the field. Those three, all under the age of 26, should comprise the heart of the Tigers' order this season. Colt Keith, 22 is coming to Detroit with a stick of his own. It was Torkelson who said Wednesday, "Everyone knows we can win this division."
The stabilizer for the Tigers is supposed be their pitching staff, which "should help us keep games close and take some pressure off the young hitters," said Harris. Skubal is the ace of a rotation that added veterans Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty and is expecting a boost from the return of former first overall pick Casey Mize. And the bullpen, which added Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller, projects as a strength. Still, it's the offense that will likely define the Tigers' season.
"Tork hit 30-whatever homers last year and I felt like 25 of them were in the second half, so I'm excited to see him piece together a full season and see what kind of damage he can do," Skubal said. "The youth that we have, the aggression and passion and competition that they like to play with every day, I think our lineup is going to be fun 1 through 9. I understand it's young and there's going to be some struggles, but I think they're going to pull it together more often than not."
It is not a stretch to say that Skubal, 27, was the best pitcher in baseball last season once he returned from offseason flexor tender surgery. He debuted on the Fourth of July and led all big-league pitchers from that point on in fWAR (3.3), and it wasn't particularly close. He finished with a 2.80 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and a .189 batting average against. Gerrit Cole, the AL Cy Young winner, finished with a 2.63 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a .206 batting average against.
Of course, Cole threw 200-plus innings over 33 starts for the second year in a row. Skubal threw 80 innings over 15 starts and has yet to crack 150 innings in a professional season. To truly arrive as one of the best arms in the bigs, Skubal needs to stay on the mound. And he knows it: "That 200-inning threshold is a big deal in today's game."
"You log 180, 190, 200, that's a durable starter," Skubal said. "And if you're doing those things, the numbers are generally going to be in your favor because that means you're pitching well. So that's a good goal, is to eat innings, 180-plus. I think that's good for the organization and it's good for you ballclub, too. You're saving the bullpen when you can, so there's a ton of pride in that in being a stating pitcher."
The strides Skubal took last season were important. And while the evidence was in the numbers, the growth was mostly in his mind. For one, Skubal said he proved to himself that "you belong pitching in the big leagues." And that's "something I didn't really have my first two years, was just confidence in myself knowing that I belong." For another, he learned how to stay "locked in pitch by pitch for an entire game."
"When I can do that and not let little things kind of get at me, not let a strike zone get at me, let anything really affect that (mentality) and just live pitch by pitch, that's when I'm at my best, and I thought I did a good job of doing that last year," Skubal said. "I felt like I was executing pitches at a pretty high clip and the results spoke to that.
His favorite pitch is his sizzling fastball, which held hitters to a .206 average last season. His best might be his changeup, which flummoxes hitters (.167 average last season) and takes Skubal's repertoire to new heights. Much as he loves raring back and throwing smoke, "guys in the big leagues are pretty good at hitting heaters, so I like my slider and changeup right now," he said. "And then obviously trying to get a little more confident in the curveball and use that as a weapon."
Last year was Skubal's summer. This can be his season. And the division can be Detroit's, if the Tigers keep flexing in the Central. Skubal will get the ball on Opening Day, on what will likely be a chilly afternoon in Chicago. He'd really like to take it when the temperatures drop and the stakes rise.
