So it's September and the Tigers are in a playoff race. Hear that?? A playoff race! A (sort of) real, (halfway) legitimate playoff race. The rebuild is (still far from) complete and the pain is (only temporarily) over. Tigers baseball is (for the moment, anyway) back.
It's been four long years since Detroit entered the last month of the season with a shot at playing in October. On the first day of September over the last three seasons, the Tigers have been, on average, 25.5 games out of the playoffs. *Checks calendar.* They're 1.5 games out today.
It's a charitable format, it's a silly 60-game season, hello, the Tigers aren't even above .500, yeah, yeah, yeah. We know. And we don't really care. We're ready to dive headlong into this thing, because we enjoy baseball and we enjoy having fun, and baseball is most fun when the games start to matter.
With that in mind, here are five stories to watch as the Tigers set off on their first playoff push since 2016.
Three-Horse Race
There are eight playoff spots up for grabs in the AL. The Tigers are essentially in the running for two. Of the nine teams that finish in the bottom three of each division, Detroit has to finish in the top two. The good news: the race is already down to three. The only teams at or above .500 among that group right now are the Twins, Blue Jays and Tigers. Everyone else is pretty much sunk. This isn't Detroit vs. Everybody. This is Detroit vs. Deux.
Detroit Runs on Miggy
Many -- most -- of Miguel Cabrera's skills have faded in recent years. His knack for driving in runs remains sharp. He hit .369 with runners in scoring position last season, and he's hitting .375 this season. He leads the Tigers with 20 RBI. It's hard to overstate Cabrera's importance to Detroit's lineup, penciled every day into the 3-hole. When Miggy drives in a run, the Tigers are 9-2. If he can sustain his recent hot streak, the Tigers can sustain theirs.
Calm, Cool, Clutch
If the clutch gene exists, this club has it. The Tigers are 6-1 in 1-run games, the best winning percentage in the majors. That's how a team with a negative-21 run differential stays afloat. The players will say it owes to the addition of a few veterans and to the ongoing growth of an otherwise young roster. We've been in these spots before. And there's some truth to that. It's also random and fortuitous and exactly the type of aberration that can carry an underdog team to October.
Young Guns Deployed
No one expected Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to turn the Tigers around on their own. And they haven't. Through three starts each, they share an ERA of 6.75. But Skubal has been better each time out, and Mize is too talented not to find his rhythm soon. They each project to get at least four more starts this season. And we get a chance to see if two of the best young arms in baseball can pitch the Tigers into the playoffs. Baseball=Fun!
Back from the Brink
Why are we having this conversation in the first place? Because the Tigers yanked their season out of the fire with a five-game win streak they'll try to continue Tuesday night against the Brewers (8-3 in 1-run games!). Per FanGraphs, Detroit has bumped its chance of making the playoffs from 5.6 percent to 23.5 percent in the last week. You would have embraced those odds in July. You would have thrust your lonely arms around them back in March.
Now that it's September, let's appreciate the return -- fleeting or not -- of meaningful baseball in Detroit.
