After struggling in his first big-league season, Casey Mize is proving his worth in 2021. He leads the Tigers -- and the 2018 draft class -- in WAR. The former first overall pick looks like a top-of-the-rotation stud for years to come.
The Tigers could add another Mize with the third overall pick next month.
"Detroit is not shy in saying they really like power arms and good performance in SEC competition, and Jack Leiter is right in the middle of that," said ESPN's MLB Draft analyst Kiley McDaniel. "He’s the best performer with the most tools and the most pedigree in the SEC, so he is their type to a T."
Like Mize in 2018, Leiter is considered the top pitching prospect in this year's draft. He's a right-handed ace from the SEC with a mid-90's fastball and an array of quality off-speed pitches. Leiter led the country in strikeouts in his final season at Vanderbilt. He finished with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.837 WHIP, even better numbers than Mize in his final season at Auburn.
"I think he’s got a lot of Mize to him," said Brian Sakowski, national scouting supervisor for Perfect Game USA. "We’ve seen that with Casey Mize in the minors and now in the majors where there’s that moxie, that never-change-your-facial expression intensity. I think Leiter is very similar to that. He’s obsessed with being the best and Mize is similar to that. That would be an incredible two-headed monster along with (Tarik) Skubal and hopefully some other guys at the top of that rotation."
With Leiter in the picture, Mize, Skubal and Matt Manning would have to make room in the Big Three. Those four could be a force, and that's before mentioning Spencer Turnbull and Matthew Boyd. You're talking about a foundation with the upside of Verlander-Scherzer-Sanchez. And Leiter boasts pedigree as the son of former All-Star pitcher Al Leiter. Dad has already said son is "way better than me."
The comparisons to Mize are more than just mental. Leiter works the ball through the zone with the same sort of creativity and command. He has a number of pitches at his disposal in any scenario.
"It’s almost like a video game where it's like, this pitch goes here, this pitch goes here, that one goes there, this one there and I just put them in random orders with every hitter. And maybe there’s one pitch that doesn’t work with this guy so it’s these three in a random order," said McDaniel. "He’s doing that sort of thing with the same sort of characteristics."
Both Mize and Skubal have improved drastically this year under Tigers new pitching coach Chris Fetter, touted as one of the best hires in baseball last offseason. Sakowski said he "would love to see what Fetter can do with" Leiter.
"It’s elite fastball quality, he’s into the upper 90's with that vertical slot, and really good breaking balls. Get that with the mad scientist Chris Fetter who’s proven he can make literally anybody better and I’m exited as to what the upside could potentially be," said Sakowski.
In an ideal world for the Tigers, high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer will be available at No. 3. But he's almost certain to be selected in the first two picks. Fellow high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar could be gone as well. That would likely leave Leiter as the top player on Detroit's board -- and perhaps the top pitcher in the club's rotation of the future.