This is the Tarik Skubal we've been waiting for, the one we began hearing about in 2019. The one who mows down batters like he's cutting the lawn, the one with the gas and the gusto to thrive in the bigs. As far as he's come he's got longer to go, but this is the Skubal who belongs in The Show.
In last Saturday's win over the White Sox, Skubal delivered his fourth straight start -- and fifth in the past month -- of at least eight strikeouts and two runs or fewer. The last four rookies to punch out at least eight batters in four straight starts: Noah Syndergaard, Jose Fernandez, Yu Darvish and Stephen Strasburg.
Forget rookies. No one in baseball is striking dudes out right now like Skubal. Over his last six starts, dating back to May 7, Skubal leads the majors with 14.1 K/9 IP, one spot ahead of Max Scherzer. He has 50 K's in 32 innings during this stretch -- and more importantly, an ERA of 3.09.
Here's what stands out to Skubal: 32 innings isn't enough. (Indeed, that ranks outside the top 35 pitchers since May 7.) For all the flash of his strikeouts, Skubal has to be more efficient. He's yet to pitch past the sixth inning this year. He said Saturday he's let too many 0-2 counts turn into six- or seven-pitch at-bats.
"Those guys need to be either on or off in four. Maybe take my shot with two strikes, and either they have a hit or they're out on four pitches to limit those long AB's and hopefully work deeper into games," he said.
"We love the punchouts," A.J. Hinch said Saturday, "but they also drive the pitch count up."
Here's what else is holding Skubal back: an uptick in walks -- a result of not putting batters away -- and a high rate of hard contact. The latter would help explain why he's yielded a batting average on balls in play of .353 amid this otherwise dominant stretch. When Skubal's not missing bats, he needs to start missing barrels.
That will come with time. And his luck should even out. For now, the Tigers have to be mighty pleased with the progress Skubal's made in the past month. His first 14 big-league outings yielded a 5.77 ERA and 9 K/9 IP. Again, his last six: 3.09 ERA, 14.1 K/9 IP.
This is the Tarik Skubal they've been waiting for, even as they're waiting for more.
