The MLB Draft is decidedly different than the other three major professional sports.
There tend to be more busts and fewer Hall of Famers selected early.
The reason is essentially a two-tiered system. Either a player is selected at 18 out of high school when long-term projection is much more iffy, or at 21 out of college with the time frame for development narrowed.
It's one thing to see a hitter crush pitch after pitch in batting practice and destroy amateur pitching, another to project if it will transfer to a level where 93 mph, high-spin fastballs are the norm, along with all sorts of other offerings delivered with precise command. Velocity readings and spin rates can only say so much about pitchers.
Major League hitters miss mistakes far less often. The metrics defensively and on the bases present a much higher standard, as well.
It is into this realm the Tigers step once again with the third overall pick. They have been in this spot for awhile. The Tigers seem to have hit with their four Top 10 picks since 2016. Casey Mize (first overall 2018) and Matt Manning (ninth overall 2016) have performed well in MLB this season. Riley Greene (fifth overall 2019) and Spencer Torkelson (first overall 2020) have made rapid progress in the minor leagues. This could be the last time for awhile the Tigers have a Top 5 pick. They currently have the eighth-worst record in MLB and, if the Tigers continue their improved play, could be out of the bottom 10 soon.
You heard the names: High school shortstops Jordan Lawler, Marcelo Mayer and Brady House, and Vanderbilt pitchers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. Oklahoma high school pitcher Jackson Jobe is the flavor of the day, and with good reason. He is an impressive looking athlete, who also excels as a shortstop and football quarterback. All the hype about the supposed 3,100 rpms on his slider aside, which has become just too much at this point, he looks the part of a pitcher from central casting with his delivery, and hits the mid 90s with his four-seam fastball. Yet, there is a reason organizations have avoided high school pitchers increasingly early in the draft. The risk-reward divide is wider, by far, regarding high school pitchers than any other area.
If the Tigers get it right, the third overall selection should net them, at minimum, a solid MLB player.
Evan Longoria, Trevor Bauer, Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer are among the current MLB standouts selected third overall during the past two decades. Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor were third overall picks back in the day.
No high school pitcher has been taken in the first 14 the last two drafts, but high schooler Ian Anderson, third overall by Atlanta in 2016, is already a front-line starter, who dominated in the '20 postseason as a rookie.
The third choice, however, has been anything but a charm for the Tigers. They've had it two previous times since the MLB Draft began in 1965. They took University of Southern California catcher Eric Munson in 1999 and Wake Forest pitcher Kyle Sleeth in 2003.
Other than an epic home run into the center field camera well at Comerica Park, Munson had an underwhelming MLB career defined by his minus 1.4 WAR. Sleeth had arm problems. His minor league ERA was 6.33. He never reached MLB.
Maybe the third time at third overall will be a charm for the Tigers.
