Perception is the Tigers' cupboard is bare.
Yet, as blatantly displayed last year on the opposite extreme, such impressions often don't equal reality.
Are the Tigers, who suffered a systemic meltdown of epic proportions in 2022, really that bad?
Not if the following numbers are reached in 2023:
- 70 more home runs combined by these four players - Last season, Riley Greene, Austin Meadows, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter combined to hit just 19 home runs in only 1,075 MLB plate appearances. Given the prestigious power Greene and Torkelson displayed in the minor leagues, it was unimaginable they would hit just 13 bombs in 822 plate appearances, even as rookies. Meadows, who struggled with injuries and off-the-field issues, did not hit any home runs in 173 plate appearances. It's amazing considering he posted 27 and 33 home run seasons with Tampa Bay and is just 27 years old. Carpenter hit six homers in only 113 plate appearances. He was a late-season addition after a surprising 30-homer assault in the minor leagues. Likely at least doubling their MLB plate appearances, it's not out of the realm of possibility these four players combine to average 17-to-18 home runs apiece this season. And if that happens, the Tigers' offense will be dramatically improved with 70 or so total circuit shots. There were 84 MLB hitters who hit more than 17 home runs in '22. None on the Tigers.
- 400 innings from top of the rotation - As awful as the Tigers were offensively last season, their starting pitching wasn't exactly stellar. The additions of veterans Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen, and return of Eduardo Rodriguez to full time duty, is expected to provide more innings by starters. The Tigers only had three pitchers top 100 innings last season. They need Boyd, Rodriguez and Lorenzen to average 133-to-134 innings each. In '22, 84 MLB pitchers worked 134 innings or more. Tarik Skubal, even with a season-ending arm injury, led the Tigers with 117-plus innings.
- 8.5 K's per nine - Tigers pitchers only struck out 7.38 hitters per nine innings last season, fourth-worst in MLB. The MLB-average was 8.43. Every team at nine or above made the playoffs.
- 72 percent stolen base rate - The great unknown is the bearing the new rules will have on MLB in '23. Will the game become a stolen base fest because the bags are bigger, throws to base holding runners are limited to two and a pitch clock running down is signal to go. The Tigers were successful on 66 percent of their attempts last season. Because there are three outs per inning, that's essentially breaking even. Matt Vierling is one of the fastest runners in baseball. Akil Baddoo also has high-level speed. And several others, such as Eric Haas, Torkelson and Greene are plus runners. It needs to translate to a higher percentage of successful steal attempts.
