MLB insider: Tarik Skubal likely "a goner" by trade deadline

The trade deadline is still two months away. But with the Tigers facing an almost impossible climb back into the playoff race, the fate of Tarik Skubal might already be sealed.

Per MLB insider Ken Rosenthal, "A growing belief exists within the industry that Skubal is a goner."

After a horrific month of May, the Tigers are tied with the Rockies for last in the majors. They enter June 11.5 games back in the AL Central and 7.0 games out of a wild card spot, staring up at every team in the AL. There's an outside chance they could claw back into the picture as they get healthy, with Skubal among several important pieces currently sidelined.

But it's more likely that when Skubal returns -- sometime in the next couple weeks -- his starts will serve as a showcase ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

"And if NanoNeedle surgery indeed repaired his elbow with minimal disruption, the frenzy to acquire him might even top what we saw with Juan Soto in 2022 or any other July auction in recent memory," says Rosenthal.

That's quite the suggestion, given that Skubal is a pending free agent -- ahead of a possible labor dispute, no less -- and Soto was under team control for three playoff runs when he was dealt in 2022. But it shows Skubal's standing around baseball, coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards. Any contender who adds him would significantly boost its chances of winning it all.

And "every contender will at least check in," per Rosenthal, "even the spendaholic, back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who might view the deadline as something close to last call."

The Nationals received an epic haul for Soto, highlighted by a trio of elite position player prospects in shortstop C.J. Abrams and outfielders James Wood and Robert Hassell III; Abrams and Wood are now stars for the big club. Washington, which sweetened the pot by including slugger Josh Bell in the deal, also netted a pair highly-touted young arms in MacKenzie Gore and Jarlin Susana.

If the Tigers don't mount a charge in the next couple months, they cannot in good conscience keep Skubal, who seems destined to depart for a massive payday in free agency. In that case (assuming they were to make Skubal a qualifying offer), the Tigers would wind up with nothing more than a compensatory draft pick after the first round.

"A trade would yield greater projected value," says Rosenthal, "though the return would be depressed by three factors: Skubal’s status as a rental, the remaining portion of his $32 million salary he is owed and his lack of eligibility for a qualifying offer as a player traded in the middle of a season."

The Tigers could mitigate those factors by trading Skubal to a team where he'd be likely to sign an extension and by picking up at least a portion of the remainder of his salary, which would be worth it to maximize their return.

The other complicating factor for the Tigers is Scott Harris, the club's president of baseball ops who has earned a reputation around the game as "notoriously exacting" in trade talks, per Rosenthal, who adds: "The griping from rival executives about dealing with Scott Harris ... would be as entertaining as the Skubal sweepstakes themselves."

Extension talks between Skubal and the Tigers have never gotten very far. His agent Scott Boras much prefers to take his clients to the open market, especially when they have a chance to sign a historic deal like Skubal.

Barring a sudden change in dialogue, or a miraculous push on the field by the Tigers, Skubal almost has to be dealt by Aug. 3. It's just a matter of where he goes, and what he brings back.