Tarik Skubal wants Tigers to buy at trade deadline

With the clock ticking, the Tigers are suddenly clicking.

Two questions with long-lasting implications: Will it continue? And is it too late?

Since June, the Tigers have the best ERA in the majors, the most homers in the majors, and the best record in the American League. In the first inning of a crucial homestand Tuesday, Tarik Skubal struck out the side, Colt Keith launched a two-run bomb and the Tigers were on their way to their sixth win in the past seven games, 6-2 over the A's. They honored their three position-playing All-Stars along the way.

"We all knew, this whole season, this is the team that we have," Skubal said after his fifth start back from bone chip surgery in his elbow. "We just kind of got some bad luck and beat ourselves a little bit early in the season, and it doesn’t seem like we’re doing that anymore. Need to continue to build on that momentum and finish strong into the break."

Baseball's a strange sport. After 91 games, the Tigers are plus-15 in runs scored, the A's are minus-76, and they have matching records of 41-50. If you subscribe to such things -- and the Tigers and their analytically-minded front office surely do -- Detroit's run differential equates to an expected record of 47-44.

Your eye-rolling is understood. The Tigers did this to themselves. They belong where they are after their horrific month of May. As A.J. Hinch said recently, "We were pretty bad in May being able to find any wins, and that’s going to cost us for a while." But there is real data to suggest that the Tigers are better than their current company in the standings. Just as importantly, their league is a car wreck.

Big decisions loom for Scott Harris and Co. ahead of August 3rd. The Tigers could have two of the most valuable chips on the trade market in pending free agents Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. Skubal, in particular, would yield the sort of the return that could alter the organization's present and future.

The Tigers will listen on both. They have to. It would be crippling -- some might say criminal -- to keep Skubal for an outside shot at making the playoffs, only to fall short and lose him this winter for nothing more than draft pick compensation. Ask the last-place Angels how that worked out a few years ago with Shohei Ohtani. That's the opportunity cost of holding out hope.

But in a year where the AL remains wide open ... and where the Tigers are pitching like a team that could do real damage in October ... as they were designed ... what's the opportunity cost of selling?

There are just seven teams in the majors with a positive run differential and a winning record against teams above .500. Six of them -- the Dodgers, Brewers, Rays, Braves, Yankees and Marlins -- either lead their division or occupy a playoff spot. The other is the Tigers.

We brought this to Skubal after Tuesday's win and asked him if he believes that A) the Tigers are better than their record indicates and that B) they still have enough time to prove it before major decisions have to be made. His reply was emphatic: "Yes, both. Yes."

"We had some unlucky losses, beat ourselves up a bit, some injury stuff, including myself. Hopefully the decision-makers see that we’re a very good team and it’s not sell at the deadline — it’s add," Skubal said. "I think we’re a really good team, and there’s so many guys in this room that have proven that we can go on a run like we did in ’24.

"I think there’s a lot that goes into it, but our record is not our team. We’re not a 41-50 team, I don’t even think we’re a .500 team. I think we are one of the best teams in the American League, one of the best teams in MLB. At some point results matter and our record is our record, and that matters. Winning matters. But at the same time, I do think we do a lot of things that haven’t shown up in the win-loss column."

The simplest truth about the Tigers is that their bullpen has failed them. (Do you still have your Koozie!?) They lead the American League with 19 blown saves, almost all of them courtesy of Will Vest, Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan and Drew Anderson -- their four highest-paid relievers. Had they closed out even half those games, the Tigers would lead their division. Their expected record would resemble their actual one.

Should they be shopping for relievers ahead of the deadline? (Aroldis Chapman? Garrett Whitlock? Josh Hader?) Should they be shopping for the right-handed bat they eschewed at last year's deadline and again in the offseason? (Old friend Isaac Paredes? Taylor Ward? Heck, Jeremy Peña??) If they decide to go for it, shouldn't they be shopping for both?

Yes, this was the approach the Angels took in 2023 to maximize what they knew would be their final season with Ohtani. Yes, it blew up in their face. A key difference: the Tigers, per FanGraphs, have twice as good a chance of making the playoffs now (28.5 percent) as the Angels did at the deadline in 2023.

The Tigers just had three players voted into the All-Star Game by their peers, each of them among the best at their respective positions: catcher Dillon Dingler, infielder Kevin McGonigle and outfielder Riley Greene. They have a loaded rotation that has been pitching like it for the past month. They have reinforcements on the way in the likes of Gleyber Torres, Javy Baez and even Jackson Jobe.

And let's be honest, they have a payroll on which ownership would like to see some returns.

"We have three All-Stars, all position players," said Skubal. "How many teams with a 40-50 record get three All-Stars? Typically teams that are out of it get one guy, just to have a representative. And we probably have more than three guys deserving."

He motioned to the locker next to him where Mize was getting dressed and said, "I think he deserves to be an All-Star." He nodded across the clubhouse and said, "What Keider’s been able to do for us, he’s been unbelievable."

"And I think that just speaks to our team," Skubal said.

It also speaks to their dilemma. The Tigers have a five-game deficit in the wild card race with six teams to jump. They have a 6.5-game deficit in the division with three teams to jump. And they have just 21 games between now and the deadline to make a charge, to gain enough ground to convince management to give this roster a shot -- maybe even a boost.

Can they go 15-6, and get to .500 by judgement day?

"Our record isn’t us, by any means," said Skubal. "And that’s what I’m saying, I said this in New York (after we swept the Yankees), if you asked guys on the other team, is this a 41-50 team? They’d be like, 'No. No, they’re not.' But we’ve earned some of it, too. We deserve some of it. But I think there’s just too much talent in this room."

They're starting to prove it.

Will it continue?

And is it too late?