We're not here to "peddle panic," as Brad Ausmus used to say. That would be irresponsible in April. The Tigers have only played 11 percent of their schedule. The mess they just made in Minnesota represents less than two percent of their schedule. Perspective is good this time of year.
So here's some more on the heels of the Tigers' 6-12 start: of the 106 teams that have made the playoffs since MLB expanded the postseason in 2012, not a single one has started 6-12 or worse. Turns out, 11 percent of the schedule is pretty telling.
There are exceptions to every rule. Maybe the Tigers can be one in the first full season of MLB's 12-team playoff field. But the playoffs aren't really the point here. The point is that good teams tend to reveal themselves in April, and the Tigers look more like the bad teams we've watched for most of the past five years.
They aren't hitting a lick, second to last in the majors in runs scored. When they do hit, they hit singles. As a team, they have the same numbers of homers (8) as Yankees slugger Anthony Rizzo and fewer over the past 10 games than two dozen other big-league players. Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Cabrera and Akil Baddoo have combined for as many extra-base hits (12) as Rays rookie Wander Franco.
Recently, the defense has been worse. The Tigers blew the series opener in Minnesota by collapsing like the Bad News Bears in the ninth, then outdid themselves in the series finale by committing three successive errors in the fifth to turn a close game into a blowout. The infield has been as guilty as the outfield. Tucker Barnhart's two Gold Gloves have yet to show up.
The rotation hasn't been nearly as strong as the Tigers need it to be. Worse, it's banged up. Casey Mize and Matt Manning are in Lakeland rehabbing arm injures as the brass holds its breath in Detroit. Meanwhile, free agent acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez has an ERA over 5.00 through four starts, the purported ace of a rotation with the second worst ERA (4.43) in the AL.
The Tigers have six wins through three weeks of baseball, and in some ways they're fortunate. An overachieving bullpen is the only reason things aren't worse. This is an inflection point. The Tigers wanted their games to matter this season into August and September. With six on tap against the Dodgers and the Astros, they suddenly mean a whole lot in April and May.
"We're going to play the 140-plus games we have left, so I don't want to rush to too many judgments," A.J. Hinch said after Thursday's loss, Detroit's fourth in a row. "It is what it is. We've earned the situation that we're in, the hole that we're in. We've got to play better. Yeah, it's been tough. So be it."
It's not that good teams can't climb out of holes. It's that they generally don't wind up in them. The reason 6-12 teams don't rally to make the playoffs is because, by now, most playoff-bound teams are above .500. It takes a bad team to lose twice as often as it wins, even in a relatively small 18-game sample. Right now, the Tigers are a bad team.
If you're angry, you have every right to be. This was supposed to be a good team, at least a competitive team. Sloppy defense and punchless lineups were supposed to be a thing of the past. But as April turns into May, it feels like nothing has changed. If a long season offers hope, it promises nothing but 162 games. The Tigers have some cleaning-up to do after their first 18.
Until that happens, they deserve the criticism coming their way.
