One of my favorite things to do as a sportswriter is look back at my own predictions and see how accurate — or, alternatively, how utterly inaccurate — they are in hindsight.
Exhibit A: the Utah Jazz. I thought the Jazz were, well, the Jazz. They went 48-34 in the 2017-18 season, the first of Donovan Mitchell's career, and lost in the Western Conference Semifinals as the fifth seed. They went 50-32 in the 2018-19 season, and were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs as the fifth seed. They went 44-28 in 2019-20, losing to the Nuggets in the first round of the Orlando bubble postseason as the sixth seed. Between this season and last season, they made minimal changes. There was the potential for existing tension between Rudy Gobert and his teammates after his coronavirus slip-up early in the pandemic. There were rivals in the West who got stronger.
And, for all of the above reasons, I listed the Jazz at No. 12 in my power rankings, saying that "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," but also doubting that they did much to establish themselves as a Finals contender. In fact, no one on our RADIO.COM Sports panel ranked the Jazz in the top ten. So, of course, the Jazz stand alone with a 27-9 record at this point, they're a top-five team in both offensive and defensive rating, and have an unbelievable +8.9 net rating as they sit in first place. As they say, you win some, you lose some.
In terms of the "win some" part of that aforementioned adage, though, I correctly expressed some concern about the Celtics' depth, I saw the Suns as a "big underdog" in the West, and I was generally accurate in terms of laying out playoff-bound teams, rebuilding teams, and those lost in no-man's land.
Let's take a look at how the association stacks up as we begin the second half of the 2020-21 season, with my preseason power rankings shamelessly listed next to each team, for your entertainment and for my bragging rights or humiliation, depending on the team.
30-26: Potential deadline sellers
The Pistons don't have much to play for, but Jerami Grant's numbers have been pleasantly surprising.
(Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
30. Detroit Pistons | 10-26 (preseason rank: 29)
29. Minnesota Timberwolves | 7-29 (preseason rank: 21)
28. Orlando Magic | 13-23 (preseason rank: 25)
27. Houston Rockets | 11-23 (preseason rank: 16)
26. Cleveland Cavaliers | 14-22 (preseason rank: 18)
Jerami Grant has been the biggest bright spot you could ask for with a team like the Pistons, who sit at 10-26, no longer have Derrick Rose or Blake Griffin, and are eagerly awaiting the return of Killian Hayes. While pretty much everything else has gone wrong, Grant is averaging 23.4 points per game and has a +4.6 on-off net rating.
Karl-Anthony Towns missed time early in the year, and his return — which unfortunately coincided with D'Angelo Russell's absence — hasn't led to results. His play in the last 12 games is solid: 22.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. The Timberwolves' record in those 12 games? 1-11.
The Magic were pleasantly surprising for a few games, but Markelle Fultz's torn ACL, among other issues, quickly derailed that. The end could be near for names like All-Star Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier, should Orlando look to blow everything up and start anew.
The miss on the Rockets' preseason ranking shouldn't be surprising, considering they once had James Harden, and now they don't. Although they played well initially after the deal, Christian Wood's injury has sent the Rockets on a massive downward spiral, going 0-13 since he last played.
Collin Sexton keeps on scoring, but the rest of the Cavaliers struggle to do so. However, the establishment of Jarrett Allen at the five and the young backcourt means that there's something to be hopeful for.
25-21: Which Wizards are the real Wizards?
Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine can score in bunches, but they need their supporting casts to help them win games.
(Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
25. Sacramento Kings | 14-22 (preseason rank: 22)
24. Oklahoma City Thunder | 15-21 (preseason rank: 27)
23. New Orleans Pelicans | 15-21 (preseason rank: 18)
22. Chicago Bulls | 16-18 (preseason rank: 24)
21. Washington Wizards | 14-20 (preseason rank: 19)
Things were slowly looking up, and up, and then up some more when the Kings put up a 7-1 stretch into February. A 2-11 run followed, and the trade buzz regarding Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes, among others, makes sense given the Kings' struggle to find consistent success.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is legit, with numbers of 23.2 points, 6.2 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game on .627 true shooting, which is a top-10 figure among the 45 20-point scorers in the league. A solid supporting cast and the immediate veteran presence of Al Horford has turned OKC into a competent, if a little boring, squad out West.
Why the Pelicans aren't better is a question that I really don't have an answer to, but they just seem constantly overmatched when their talent should dictate otherwise. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are stars, and Lonzo Ball is playing extremely well — and they can play well, like when they beat the Jazz — but it just hasn't come together, specifically on the defensive end.
The Bulls' net rating is hovering just around even, and you feel like they can win on any given night. The hope is that supporting pieces to All-Star Zach LaVine can stay healthy and turn some close losses into wins.
It was a tale of two first-half halves — that's confusing — for the Wizards. They started out 6-17, going through a rough patch in late January/early February where their offense struggled to reach 110 points. Then, they went 8-3 over their final 11 games prior to the All-Star break, defeating the Lakers, Clippers and Nuggets (twice) among others). Which version will we see in the second half?
20-16: Could Trae use All-Star snub to fuel second-half run?
Trae Young's numbers are there, but we're still waiting for the Hawks to show consistent success, perhaps like Julius Randle's surprising Knicks.
(Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
20. Indiana Pacers | 16-19 (preseason rank: 15)
19. Charlotte Hornets | 17-18 (preseason rank: 26)
18. Atlanta Hawks | 16-20 (preseason rank: 17)
17. New York Knicks | 19-18 (preseason rank: 30)
16. Memphis Grizzlies | 16-16 (preseason rank: 20)
I'm excited to see what Caris LeVert can do in his return to the floor, as Indiana was playing good basketball when there was a reliable wing scorer and shot-creator (Victor Oladipo) on the floor alongside the very solid trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner and All-Star Domantas Sabonis. Should they hang on to a play-in seed and see T.J. Warren also make a return, there could be potential for playoff success.
LaMelo Ball was a polarizing draft candidate, but it's safe to say that the Hornets are extremely happy with their selection. He's posting 15.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists in his first 35 games of action, with improved averages of 20.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.7 assists since becoming a starter. They could be buyers at the deadline if there's an intriguing big who's up for grabs.
The Hawks will hope to finally see their full roster share the floor together, as Bogdan Bogdanovic has returned, Danilo Gallinari has had some scoring outbursts, and De'Andre Hunter's breakout season could resume in the coming weeks. Most important, though, is if Trae Young can prove that his gaudy numbers lead to team success, and interim head coach Nate McMillan will be tasked with finding the answer to this.
Yep. 30th out of 30 teams is how I saw the Knicks coming in, and I've already written enough in the department of apology letters to the fan base for not forecasting Julius Randle's explosion and Immanuel Quickley's rapid ascension. But, once again, forgive me. The addition of Derrick Rose showed that Tom Thibodeau's unit is looking to make an impact in the postseason and show the NBA community that they're no longer a laughing stock.
It appears we may have counted out the Grizzlies too early for the second year in a row. We had to temper our expectations due to Jaren Jackson's injury, but even without him, the Grizzlies have remained competitive on the shoulders of Ja Morant (19.8 points, 7.7 assists) and a balanced attack.
15-11: Postseason dark horses
Steph Curry and Luka Doncic have enough star power to lead their teams on a strong second-half surge.
(Jerome Miron/USA Today)
15. Toronto Raptors | 17-19 (preseason rank: 7)
14. San Antonio Spurs | 18-14 (preseason rank: 23)
13. Golden State Warriors | 19-18 (preseason rank: 13)
12. Dallas Mavericks | 18-16 (preseason rank: 8)
11. Boston Celtics | 19-17 (preseason rank: 10)
You shouldn't doubt Nick Nurse, nor should you count out the clear talent that the Raptors have in players like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. But with Kyle Lowry's name floated in trade buzz more than perhaps anyone else, it might be imprudent to assume that they're gunning for another title this season, and their up-and-down results this year are another good indication of that.
I guess I just didn't expect DeMar DeRozan to tear it up as much as he has this year. He's been spectacular (20.0 points, 7.2 assists, 4.9 rebounds) as have developing stars like Dejounte Murray and Keldon Johnson. It's deeper than that, too, with guys like Devin Vassell and Luka Samanic becoming names to watch in the second half.
Steph can't do it all, but at the same time, he kind of can. He should very much be in the MVP discussion and though he's not at the front of that race or even in the top three, his 29.7 points, 6.3 assists and 5.5 rebounds on .478/.411/.934 are nothing short of exceptional. If he can get more offensive consistency around him and the Warriors add another key piece, they could make a run.
Things have finally come together in Dallas, but it didn't start that way. Their first nine wins were accompanied by 14 losses. Their next nine wins, however, were joined by only two losses. A lot of that has coincided with Luka Doncic's improved scoring efficiency — he's shooting 46.5 percent from deep in his last ten games.
After a 10-6 start, the Celtics endured a few rough patches, including two straight losses to the Pistons and Wizards, and drama was at an all-time high. Were players listening to Brad Stevens? While that question has been settled, a couple more still remain. Is Kemba Walker really the point guard that this team needs to make a run? And what will Danny Ainge do — and when — with that gigantic Hayward trade exception to propel this middling team?
10-6: Some preseason favorites have fallen a little flat
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard will be tasked with bringing their teams back into the top five for the second half.
(Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
10. Miami Heat | 18-18 (preseason rank: 5)
9. Portland Trail Blazers | 21-14 (preseason rank: 11)
8. Los Angeles Clippers | 24-14 (preseason rank: 3)
7. Milwaukee Bucks | 22-14 (preseason rank: 2)
6. Denver Nuggets | 21-15 (preseason rank: 4)
The Heat were dealt an unplayable hand early in the season, with COVID-19 struggles taking away key players for games at a time. But it has all come together as of late, with Jimmy Butler playing out of his mind (22.4 points, 9.1 assists, 8.4 rebounds in his last dozen games) and Bam Adebayo continuing his ascension to superstardom.
I'm going to use the same little summary that I used in my preseason description of the Blazers: Damian Lillard may not win an MVP this season. He may not ever win one. But I think you can make a very good argument that no player is more important for the success of his team than Lillard is in Portland. He single-handedly carries the team on a nightly basis, hitting ridiculous shots most players can only dream of taking without major consequences from the coaching staff. The team's 21-14 record, largely without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, is a good testament to Lillard's importance.
Kawhi Leonard is doing MVP-type things and Paul George is having a more-than-acceptable bounce-back campaign. But it gets a little bit dicey behind that, especially considering new addition Luke Kennard hasn't impressed, Marcus Morris isn't quite playing up to the standards set by his contract, and despite a very strong record, it feels like they should be better.
This honestly may not be a bad thing. Win a lot of games without completely annihilating the rest of the league, unlike last year, and perhaps there will be a little bit more fuel in the tank entering the playoffs where the Bucks can really dominate. There isn't a ton of exciting depth, but I don't really believe they'll need it once Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday hit their stride as teammates.
I honestly like the Bucks more than the Nuggets all things considered, but it's hard to put a team that just won by nearly 30 in a head-to-head matchup below their opponent. It also doesn't hurt that Nikola Jokic is playing MVP-level basketball, Jamal Murray is finally showing hints of his bubble breakout and there's the potential for an impact deal to strengthen that core.
5-1: Title favorites
James Harden's arrival in Brooklyn has given Joel Embiid's 76ers a top competitor in the East.
(Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
5. Phoenix Suns | 24-11 (preseason rank: 13)
4. Los Angeles Lakers | 24-13 (preseason rank: 1)
3. Philadelphia 76ers | 24-12 (preseason rank: 9)
2. Utah Jazz | 27-9 (preseason rank: 12)
1. Brooklyn Nets | 24-13 (preseason rank: 6)
It pains me to see where I ranked this team in the preseason, as I remember the internal battle of wanting to put them in the top 10 but not wanting to get ahead of myself. No matter. Chris Paul has done it again. It took him a little while to get acclimated, but he has turned the Suns into a well-oiled machine, similarly to what he did with the Thunder last season, and he's helping Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dario Saric and every other part of this deep roster succeed at a very legitimate level.
Health is the only issue here, and we can't pretend that Anthony Davis's Achilles injury isn't at least a little bit concerning. But when LeBron and AD are on the court and at full strength, there's still no one that I'd choose over them in the West.
Joel Embiid was a fan favorite prior to this season, though he had a fair share of critics. It's safe to say that all of those critics have now been converted, though, as he is almost undoubtedly the first-half's MVP, with an improbable late three against the Jazz prior to All-Star Weekend to help seal that case. Add in the revival of Tobias Harris, the top-tier defense of Ben Simmons and the new system under Doc Rivers and Daryl Morey, and there really isn't much to complain about in Philly.
You can't really put the Jazz any lower right now, but they still have a lot to prove. Sure, all of this regular season success — not success, domination — isn't something you can shrug off. But is there enough star power in Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and company for a deep playoff run against top-tier stars? That remains to be seen.
Could the Brooklyn Nets' James Harden experiment be going any better? He's playing some of the most efficient basketball in his career with his new teammates, and the Nets are winning handily on a nightly basis with him in town even with Kevin Durant sidelined for a fair share of his games. The acquisition of Blake Griffin may not mean much at all in terms of how much better they got, but it does show the desirability of other stars to join the ride, and it's a ride which should result in a deep, deep playoff run.
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