The Kansas City Chiefs are set to face-off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV next Sunday, February 7th. This exciting matchup features a myriad of storylines, most notably the possibility of it being the passing of the torch game, from the incumbent GOAT Tom Brady, to the baby goat, in Patrick Mahomes.
When it comes to gambling, there is another scenario that comes to mind, home-field advantage. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be the first NFL team to play in a Super Bowl hosted on their own home field: Raymond James Stadium.
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In betting, bookmakers and gamblers alike believed NFL home field advantage was worth roughly three points. In layman's terms: two teams that are considered equal on a neutral field would be 3-point favorites at their respective home stadiums. That number has started to drift down recently, but this year, due to the pandemic and limited fans in attendance, we saw home-field become almost non-existent to home teams and the point-spread.
This season, Vegas favored home teams by only an average of 1.06 points per game, significantly the lowest total on record. Mostly because, for the first time in NFL history, home teams finished below .500 on the season, going 127-128-1 overall.
Which brings us back to the Super Bowl. So what type of advantage can we expect the Bucs to have in this matchup? Currently, there are different viewpoints as to how much playing at home is going to be worth to Tampa Bay.
To make more sense of the Buccaneers' home-field advantage impact on the line, I talked to five oddsmakers for their thoughts: Thomas Gable (The Borgata), Andrew Mannino (PointsBet), Chris Andrews (South Point), Jay Kornegay (SuperBook), and Tony Miller (Golden Nugget).
You can find their answers below:
How much is home-field worth to Tampa Bay towards the spread?
Thomas Gable: I would say a half point, at most, but probably nothing. There really won't be enough fans there to make a difference. The only thing I can really point to would be the field surface that Tampa is more used to playing on, but to me that isn't enough to make a difference on the number.
Andrew Mannino: We're approaching home field the same as we have this season, so not too much. Some of the factors involve the stadium not being full with home town fans, but instead with front line workers and industry insiders. There is certainly some advantage due to being in their own homes with their families and familiar facilities. The Bucs will get to sleep in their own bed, use their own locker rooms. But, with all that being said, the value is not what we usually see during a normal NFL season. To quantify it, if anything, maybe a point is where we see it.
Chris Andrews: .5, at most.
Jay Kornegay: A lot of various opinions on this. I've heard zero to a 1.5. I'm somewhere in between. I think it's a .5-1 influence. Sleeping in their own bed, eating the same food, familiar with surroundings has to be a little more comfortable for the home team.
Tony Miller: 1.5 points
So, there you have it. The overall consensus seems to be that home-field is worth a minimal amount to Tampa Bay in this situation. But, as every gambler knows, every point counts.
