Sister Jean is dancing in the second weekend yet again.
Loyola Chicago knocked off No. 1 seed Illinois and are set to face No. 12 seed Oregon State on Saturday afternoon.
The No. 8 seed Ramblers are considerable favorites with a low total, how should we play this one?
Odds Courtesy of BetMGM
No. 12 Oregon State Beavers vs. No. 8 Loyola Chicago Ramblers (-6.5, 125.5) - 2:40 PM EST, Saturday
Game flow is going to be a factor in this one.
Both teams play outside the top 300 in national tempo and I expect this to become a defensive slugfest, as seen by the low total.
Oregon State was on the ropes in the second round against Oklahoma State, but used the Cowboys desperate defense to generate a ton of free throw attempts, going 32-of-35 from the charity stripe.
In the Sweet 16, the Beavers are going to struggle to score in the half court against KenPom’s No. 1 team in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Porter Moser’s team put on a clinic last Sunday against Illinois. The Ramblers defense kept a lid on Ayo Dosunmu and threw double teams at Kofi Cockburn all afternoon.
Oregon State doesn’t have anyone that can match the offensive firepower that the Illini have and I don’t expect to see as many free throws attempts for the Beavers either.
Loyola Chicago big man Cameron Krutwig should be able to have his way against the Oregon State defense that struggles at defending the interior -- opponents shoot over 51% on two-point field goals.
However, the pace is going to be slow and this is a Beaver offense that is solid at protecting the ball, just outside the top 100 in turnover percentage. In a slow, methodical game, I lean towards Oregon State staying within the big number and becoming a race to 60 points.
Loyola Chicago's defense should be able get them to the Elite 8, but I can't lay such a big spread in a game with a total this low. I lean towards the under in what should become a race to 60 points.
Lean: Under 125.5, Oregon State +6.5
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