In December of 2020, one gambler bet the Michigan Wolverines to win the College Basketball National Championship at odds of 125-1. At the time, the bettor wagered $800 on the ticket to win $100,000.
Today, that same bettor sold his ticket on PropSwap for $15,000.
"This is PropSwap's largest college basketball sale of the year," said Luke Pergande, Founder of PropSwap. "We're happy that both parties, the buyer and seller of the ticket, could walk away happy.
"The seller locked in a $15,000 gain the only way possible. His other option (instead of selling on PropSwap) would be to start hedging on each of Michigan's opponents, which can get both costly and complex very quickly. How much money do you hedge on each game? When do you start hedging? These are questions that are difficult to answer. The only thing guaranteed in sports betting is a check from us."
Did the seller make the right call? Michigan is the No. 1 seed in the East Region after a 20-4 season with the fourth shortest odds (+700) to win it all at BetMGM. The Wolverines will have to make their tournament run most likely without forward Isaiah Livers, who suffered a stress fracture in his right foot, sidelining him indefinitely.
If it were me, I'd go the seller's route. It's not worth the risk when you can lock up $15,000 now.
"People are saying on Twitter he should've waited a few more rounds (something we hear all the time at PropSwap)," Pergande stated. "The odds on this sale were +572 (($15K x 5.72) + $15K = $100,800). What will Michigan's odds be if they reach the Elite 8? +500 maximum, with seven other teams remaining? So that's a value of $16,800. He's leaving such a small amount of money on the table. Not to mention that beating LSU, then potentially Florida State is no cakewalk to arrive there."
Pergande also provided some insight into the buyer's point of view.
"He's a professional gambler living in Nevada, and he's been kicked out of most of the sportsbooks for winning too much," Pergande explained. "PropSwap is one of the few ways remaining he can legally get action down on a team. +572 is still beating William Hill, who I see in Nevada has Odds of +500 on Michigan.
"There are very few sportsbooks who are taking a $15,000 wager on a future on Michigan, a No. 1 seed. So even if the buyer weren't kicked out of the majority of the books, they aren't taking a $15K wager at this point."
Would you have held or sold in this situation? This will be a fun scenario to watch play out.
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