Iowa didn’t cover the spread (+14) in a 31-point loss to Penn State this season. And in failing to score any points in the 31-0 loss — and failing to gain more than 30 yards on any of their 10 drives — the Hawkeyes did their part in securing a win for bettors holding under-38.5 tickets.
That’s one of only 66 college football games since 2005 that included a total of 40 points or fewer and a favorite of at 14 points or more.
The 67th game will be Saturday’s Big Ten Championship. As of Tuesday’s college football odds at BetMGM, Michigan is a 23.5-point favorite. The total is 35.5.
In the 66 previous instances, the under is 36-30 (.545), and the favorite is 34-32 (.515). And the favorite is 60-6 straight up. Most recently, Air Force (-18.5) lost to Army on Nov. 4 when the total closed at 32.5.
Michigan-Iowa will be just the 16th game since 2005 with a total of 40 or lower and a favorite of 14 or more. The under is 6-9 (.400), while the favorite is 7-8 (.467).
In the 15 previous instances, the favorite is 15-0 straight up. Four of those wins came by four or fewer points, most notably 10th-ranked Florida’s 9-7 win over Vanderbilt in 2015.
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